Wednesday 3:30 AM

Believe it is early in the game and we are 5 position holes ahead of opponent, I am choosing tossing 8-J: best for expected averages over 4-J.

Values for 4-J is 4.80 points and 8-J, 4.60 points (Liam). Ras has the 4-J at a value of 5.14 vs. 8-J at 4.60 points.

The former has 23 cuts for improvement to 6, 8 and 12 points; the latter, 23 cuts for improvement to 6, 8, 11, 12, and 16 points.

   

Wednesday 4:10 AM

Bingo! I nailed the cut. I would now recommend defense, but not with these cards. Since I am forced to play offense, lead the 6. I might trap a 5, but I am hoping I dont. If I do the dealer probably has a 16 hand as well.

   

Wednesday 4:57 AM

Looking for a defensive discard, and thought about harnessing some negative delta by choosing J-6. Spent a wee while wondering whether it would be to my advantage to choose 6D to eliminate the chance of a crib flush, or risk 6S to be able to present a fake flush in hand? As it happens, it's a moot point now, as with two more pre-cut points and the 6-6-4 pegging trap, I've kept J-8 instead.

   

Wednesday 6:51 AM

Keeping the touching 3-4, pair of 6s, and tossing the weak 8-J to dealer. Beautiful cut!

   

Wednesday 7:57 AM

Best defensive throw without holding only 2 points. Will now take pegs and try to get to Hole 95/96.

   

Wednesday 8:06 AM

The 5 Cut could be a mixed blessing: for while it turns our Four Points into Fourteen, it might also get the Dealer back on track as well. We still need to play defensively: Lead the 4 Card.

   

Wednesday 8:32 AM

Highest averge hand this way, and safer than (4-J). What’s not to like? Well there is the fact that 3-6-6-8 will peg better defensively with the slightly w-i-d-e-r spacing of the cards. But if we hit our hand we can switch to offense and play the “Ole Faithful”.

And we nailed it. I’m willing to switch to offense, and lead the 6s. On the common 9 reply; counter reply with the 3s, keeping the 4-6 five card trap, and flush fake in play.

   

Wednesday 8:48 AM

I didn't much like this hand and decided to go for defense.

   

Wednesday 11:27 AM

Mia culpa, you are all correct. Mine was a weak moment dreaming of a 7 to yours is best, offensively and defensively.

   

Wednesday 11:47 AM

Got to keep the high percentage trap for 31-5 which is represented by the 4-6-6. Even with the five cut will lead the 6d although will try to keep 3-4 intact to increase chance of closing count for run of three and a go if not getting a 10 spot response on my 6 lead. Not likely given the way these cards generally work that I will be able to fake a flush in the pegging. Like the 16 point hand as it puts me at hole 89 without pegs. Two-five pegs would put the game on ice for me, Certainly of these six, 6-J is the lowest scoring choice to opponent crib. The reality is that to give up on a hand with sixteen potential and the wonder of the 4-6-6 pegging trap is way too much of a sacrifice. The 6-J average is 4.533 (984) 20/91 as compared to 8-J with average of 4.576 (1,271) 25/91. There are many hands of four points such as this which contain the 4-6-6. Look for that as the pegging potential alone will determine the discard choice to opponent crib. So it is this day!

   

Wednesday 11:58 AM

Its between 3-6-6-8 (4-J) and 3-4-6-6 (8-J) but as the latter keeps the 3-4 together and 8-J is safer I think its inevitable that 3-4-6-6 will be better:

3-6-6-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -¾pt

3-4-6-6: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -½pt

Potential:

3-6-6-8: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 66, 7777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 333, 66, 7777, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-4-6-6: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/11/12/16pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Pegging:

3-4-6-6 will peg better than 3-6-6-8 pegging Offense leading a 6 and trying to trap a 5 against 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X.

Position:

We're already in position at 73pts and Dealer will if scoring the average 16pts be at 84pts. Slightly short of position. So I'll play Defense to keep them that way. Playing Defense 3-6-6-8 may peg slightly better, I think.

Summary:

3-4-6-6 has a starting value ¼pt better than 3-6-6-8. Although the cuts for improvement are the same at 23, 3-4-6-6 has 17 cuts for 8-16pts compared to 8/12pts. So I'll throw 8-J.

   

Wednesday 12:17 PM

At 73-68* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total____W3 %___W4 %
3-4-6-6___6.87+(-2.93)+(-4.57)=(-0.63)___6.1____36.6
3-6-6-8___6.26+(-2.76)+(-4.82)=(-1.32)___4.0____34.0
3-6-6-J___5.65+(-2.89)+(-4.57)=(-1.81)___2.6____30.6

Defense______L3 %___L4 %
3-4-6-6______6.6____33.4
3-6-6-8______6.8____34.8
3-6-6-J______6.6____35.0

3-4-6-6 is best for expected averages by 0.69pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select 8-J to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead 6D and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_________Net Pegging Pts.
6________________(-1.26)
3________________(-1.46)
4________________(-1.67)

   

Wednesday 12:51 PM

Defense. do I even want to see a five out of their hand for a trap? dec