Tuesday 3:04 AM

Good morning, first off the starting block. Nickle chucking best overall average slightly. Hopefully no worst then that K-10 discard or any two faces. Offense on the hand keep, defense on the pegging. dec

   

Tuesday 3:24 AM

Good submission Ras! Looked at tossing 6-9, 5-9 and 5-5. Out of the 3 discards, 5-5 improves the crib's exp. average by 1.56 points, 5-9, 1.00 point, and 6-9, 0.22 points. We can see which toss is rated higher.
Tossing 5-5 gives this hand the boost in the crib but the hand is only 8.40 points in expected averages. The hand requires face cards to improve the value of crib and not the hand.
Tossing 6-9 leaves a hand that has the highest expected averages because of the run that holds two 5"s. But we see that 6-9 doesn't improve in value unless a cut of 6 or 9 gives it 15.
I like tossing 5-9 and holding 5-6-6-7 because any face card improves both hand and crib. This hand has the second highest expected average hand. This hand has 8 cuts 66, 555, 777 improving hand to 15 - 16 points vs. 7 cuts (66, 777, 55) by tossing 6-9 improving hand to 16 - 17 points. Both hands have 4 cuts (4444) that give the hands 14 points.
Awaiting other comments.

   

Tuesday 4:30 AM

I want the five in the crib rather then 6-9. Can’t throw 5-5 as this hand is such a good pegger. Full on offense.

   

Tuesday 4:50 AM

Wow, 4 different replies so far. I like both 5s in the hand and I'm not fond of a 5-9 discard. Face-Five would be a different story. With this hand, offense is forced, so I'll be on the attack.

   

Tuesday 5:08 AM

Six points in hand rather than eight, but 5-5 in my box should make up the difference. All the X cards are still yet to be discovered.

   

Tuesday 6:24 AM

As much as I love putting a pair of 5’s in my crib, and this hand fits the Big Hand Rule, I can’t throw away my offensive “Magic Eleven”. Guess who has all the X-pointers?

Wow! The 2 cut gives me 15 known points. That puts me at 61 at least. And my crib average is 5 *not* 2. Forget the (15-2), (31-2). I’ll settle for closing the count at (31-2) on any X-card lead.

   

Tuesday 6:48 AM

Tossing the 5-5 into my crib seems to be the right play. Sixteen X cards are still available so the odds of a decent crib are pretty good. There is the possibility of only 2 points in the crib, which has happened to me many times before, but it is worth the risk. Sometimes a double run isn't necessarily the best play.

With the 2 cut, I start the play of the hand with a guaranteed 13 points so I will play a cautious offense.

   

Tuesday 7:08 AM

My thinking was that one in the hand is worth two in the bush but it appears the averages do favor toss 5-5 by a solid .4 points.

Then again, holding a 5 and 6 as dealer is often worth four points in the pegging so it might be more of a tossup.

Regardless I'd definitely play on and try to get as near to/far past 60 as possible.

   

Tuesday 7:24 AM

With no face cards in the hand I will opt for the 5s in the crib. In another position I might hold the 5567

   

Tuesday 7:58 AM

Good compromise solution.

   

Tuesday 8:59 AM

Unlike most of the above posters, I didn't even hesitate to toss the 5-5 to my crib. Min 6 in the hand, 2 in the crib, and expected averages rock - even more as I don't have any face cards.

   

Tuesday 4:10 PM

I think it must be between 5-5-6S-7 (6-9), 5-6-6-7 (5-9) and 6-6-7-9 (5-5):

5-5-6S-7: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 13¼pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 13¼pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 14¾pts

Potential:

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 66, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 66, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

5-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 66, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 26 cuts.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 55, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 55, 66, 8888, 999 = 15 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 5-5-6-7 may well peg the best of these three hands.

Position:

We're well into 2nd street CPZ and Pone requires 20pts to reach 3rd street positional hole. I think we're far enough ahead positionally to play Offense to increase our lead.

Summary:

5-5-6-7 has the same starting value as 5-6-6-7 although Schell shows a 0.30pt deficit. 5-5-6-7 does have more cuts for a good/very good hand and a better maximum. So I'll throw the suited 6-9.

   

Tuesday 4:28 PM

At 46*-50 playing an Offense strategy for te pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
5-6-6-7___11.70+3.74+5.20=20.64____33.1____58.2
5-5-6S-7__12.17+3.70+4.74=20.61____34.0____59.3
6-6-7-9____8.43+3.33+8.71=20.47____32.9____57.2

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
5-6-6-7_______18.5____21.1
5-5-6S-7______17.4____19.8
6-6-7-9_______17.4____21.3

5-6-6-7 is best for expected averages by 0.03pt over 5-5-6-7 but 5-5-6-7 is slightly better for both Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. As this is a critical board position and the difference in expected averages is so small I'll select 6H-9 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 5:37 PM

Submitted this hand since queries on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof over the years had show the top three choices to be within a few hundredths equal. Since am at hole 46 with the deal (second street CPZ (43-47) and opponent needs 19 points to reach 3rd street CVPZ 69-73 for upcoming deal, RAS is playing off., off., and off. Can see no reason to downshift after seeing the deuce starter card. Know have a guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand, and a minimum of two in crib. That puts me at hole 61. A few more pegs would put me in real good shape as long as I don't give up 12 pegs. Sure I would pair a six and would play the 7 on an 8 lead. Would also take the 15-2 on a X-lead. Coeurdelion says it very well: "...we're far enough ahead positionally to play Offense to increase our lead."