June 20, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
23*-25  ?
54%
35%
7%
1%
0%
Total votes: 155
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:15 AM
Do we chose the better hand (3-4-Q-Q) or the better crib (3-4)?
Going with tossing the gappers, 7-9 as this hand has the higher expected average hand,
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:50 AM
I’ll keep the peggers and take whatever I can get.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:54 AM
For some reason I see a trap possible with either the three,four or Queens at the end for a loss. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 AM
When in doubt, place strength to your Crib.
cribbagepogo says: Or not.
JQT says: While this type of discard is a matter of 'style' for some players, we should all remember that while our Hand is only helped by one card (the Cut), our Crib is helped by THREE cards (not just the Cut, but also the two cards discarded by our opponent). Kassler's Dealer Discarding tool makes such Dealer Discards abundantly clear: sometimes, it's best to "Throw Small"!
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:47 AM
I'd much prefer to have 3-4 in my crib, but the 7-9 cannot work with the Queens. 3-4-Q-Q for me then.

9-7 is a sixteen though, so maybe worth keeping for:
X(10)-9(19)-5(24)-7(31/2) ?
Hillchem says: With the count at 19, is it ever a good play to dump a 5? I've been burned by this when the dealer is holding 3-4-4-8 for a run and 31 for 5 points. Should I dump a five at this point?
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:54 AM
A clunker hand. I tossed 79 in the crib just incase the pone tossed an 8. I'm not getting to hole 40, so I'll take safe points and bide my time.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:36 AM
I used to hold 34QQ with such hands; however, 3479 better for pegging, and 79 is not a preferred throw.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:16 AM
I didn't think the pegging value of 3-4-7-9 would outweigh the crib value of toss 3-4. Checking the averages I'll stand by my decision. Magic elevens are nice and all but toss Q-Q is over a point lower in expected averages.

We will likely fall out of position here no matter what we toss. Play on, on, on to minimize the damage. Technically our position is +5/-9 but with such a bad hand our "adjusted position" is probably more like -10/+16 or something like that.
horus93 says: obligatory double-take - 7-9 has nearly the same average but preserves the potential for a five trap, probably woulda been better
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:25 AM
Normally with more hands I'd throw touching/close cards to the crib for most potential. But as james500 points out 7-9-Q-Q doesn't work well together and 3-4-Q-Q has eight cuts for 9pts (2222, 5555). So I'll throw 7-9, still close, which may be filled by Pone or the starter.
Coeurdelion says: with poor hands!?????
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:44 AM
At 23*-25 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss 5s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
7-9-Q-Q___3.39+(-2.20)+4.91=6.10____17.9____35.4
3-4-Q-Q___4.17+(-2.37)+4.19=5.99____18.0____35.4
3-4-7-9___2.61+(-2.11)+4.54=5.04____16.7____33.0
4-7-Q-Q___3.43+(-2.17)+3.76=5.02____15.3____32.4
4-9-Q-Q___3.48+(-2.28)+3.76=4.96____15.2____32.6

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
7-9-Q-Q______21.7____37.2
3-4-Q-Q______21.1____36.9
3-4-7-9______23.5____40.5
4-7-Q-Q______21.4____39.8
4-9-Q-Q______20.8____39.2

7-9-Q-Q is 0.11pt over 3-4-Q-Q for expected averages but 3-4-Q-Q is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %sboth of which take account of the board position. However as it's very early in the game I'll put more weight on the expected averages and select 3-4 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Inushtuk1
1485 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:37 PM
I don’t understand the cribbot’s reasoning for defense. I think it should be an optimal strategy. But in either case 3-4 is much better in our crib. And every mid-card lead is covered for a score.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:48 PM
Generally RAS advises when dealing and holding two points without touching card or 15-2, to toss the two points to crib. Based on my scant empirical data there is less than .1 of a point difference in holding 3-4-Q-Q or 7-9-Q-Q and the 3-4-7-9 is nearly a full point off the pace. Sorry can't bring myself to play the 7-9-Q-Q. Queries on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof have shown that the 3-4-7-9 does not have much of a pegging edge at all. Opponent will be dealing from the middle of nowhere (likely about hole 34) with 2nd street CPZ 43-47. So it's def., def., off. for me. Once seeing the 10 spot on the deck, of no direct help to hand or crib, will grab any pegs that I can.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. But we *do* have touching cards today. Why not put these ones in the crib? I know they are pretty well closed at one end...but still.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Ras: I just couldn't understand the reasoning for Halscrib choice in retention and discard with today's hand.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1; When I refer to touching cards or 15-2 am thinking only in terms of the two points present in hand. Had I a Jack with the Q=-Q, the 3-4 would have been discarded. Can't think of any situation in which I would play 7-9-Q-Q on my deal even though familiar with the analysis of the cribbot. Sorry!
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Can't argue with the cribbot. Think the algorithms compute all of the possible added points (5+4, 6+2, 7+2, 8+5, 9+2, Q+4). That's a total of 19 possible added points. What does it look like if we retain 3-4-Q-Q? That goes A+4, 2+7, 3+2, 4+2, 5+7, 8+2, and Q+4). That makes a possible 28 added points. So that doesn't work either. It wouldn't seem like the small difference in pegging and crib value would make up that difference favoring 3-4-Q-Q. Most of us mortals may never see the light.
Inushtuk1 says: I see what you mean now. I’ll get the hang of this in another 50 years or so. Say; I better start taking better care of myself.
JQT says: Nikola Tesla assured many of his friends that by drinking one glass of whiskey per day, he would live until age 150. He made it beyond age 80, but went insane after falling ... falling in love with a pigeon, to be more precise.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Can't imagine falling for a pigeon. That in itself could drive one insane. Some argue that I was born insane and have spent my lifetime trying to rise above such a label.