June 21, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Hamlette on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
49%
24%
17%
5%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 140
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:11 AM
Choosing to toss A-T and leave small run (open on both ends) in the hand.
In comparison, tossing 4-T, has less cuts for improvement but 3 cuts for a possible 14 points. Tossing A-T has more cuts for improvement but for a maximum of 12 points.
Expected averages are slightly higher choosing A-T.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:18 AM
Bingo!
Hillchem
2907 votes

Joined: April 2015
 
 
 
Thursday 3:26 AM
Nice cut. I'll lead a nine and see if I can move further down the board.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:41 AM
discard 101 and offense as first non dealer. Three lead . dec
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:26 AM
Everyone's a winner today. Since I already have position, lead the 3 and play defense.
Guest says: Play offense in this position Goug
joekayak says: I think you need to be at 17-21 to be in your first CPZ position. Thus play offense here.
Guest says: Someone needs to teach me how to get 17 holes consistently as the pone. In this position 10 is nice and 12 is nicer.
Coeurdelion says: Its not what you can get but what you're aiming at or need to redress the positional advantage of Dealer.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:54 AM
It's off., off., off. for me and this hand has very fine offensive pegging potential with the lead of the 9 spot. The cut gives me 12. Dealer only needs 7 points on first hand to have 50% chance to win. Want to cut in on that dealer advantage early. Like what Hillchem has to say in a single sentence.
Gougie00 says: Just curious how you intend to play off, lead a 9, and not expect some opponent pegging? Seems to me to be an offensive ploy.
Guest says: You confuse me sometimes when you say off, off, off. Sometimes think you mean the best play off in the pegging.
Ras2829 says: Hi guest: Sorry - off., off., off. means take everything, play on the lead, etc. Off., means offense. If inferring defense, would use def. If optimal, it's opt. It's copycat of HalscribCLX analysis where the cribbot might show offense, offense, offense or defense, defense, defense. The third echo is after seeing the starter card. Used three times as it relates to retention, discard, and pegging with the final choice influenced by the starter card. Thanks for asking as am sure others also have thought as you do.
joekayak says: Please help me with why leading the 9 is playing offense? I would have thought leading the 3 for a possible 15-2 was offense as well??
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: If dealer holding XXXX or one or more fives with tens, most will put the count over 15 rather than under. At the count of 19, drop the four spot for count of 23. That's a frequent 31-5. If dealer has all X-pointers we just drop those cards in for a run of three and a go. Dealer holds such hands more than 35% of the time. If dealer plays a 2 or 4 on the 9 lead, a common response, we take the 15-2, Showing a 9 from 2-3-4- or playing the 8 from 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 also misleads the dealer as to the composition of non-dealer hand. Playing offense as non-dealer on opening hand, pegs are to our advantage as dealer will be defending. By leading the 9, we show the sleeper card. If playing defense, the lead would be the trey and the 9 would be our escape card. When choosing offense, we assume some risks although with these cards or similar, non-dealer often prevails in the pegging that ensues.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 5:01 AM
I prefer A-10 over A-9.
The presence of 2-3-4 in hand "isolates" the Ace in my opponent's box, making a run unlikely. It also means that a 10-4-A fifteen is less likely to be found.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 5:01 AM
I prefer A-10 over A-9.
The presence of 2-3-4 in hand "isolates" the Ace in my opponent's box, making a run unlikely. It also means that a 10-4-A fifteen is less likely to be found.
Guest says: Tommy two times
cribbagepogo says: We needed you to point that out. Thanks.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 10:16 AM
I'll lead the 9 and play offense. The cut gives me 12 points should be able to peg some points with the small cards. If I hold the 3 until the end the "false flush" may keep him guessing.

On a side note, if I was the dealer and kept this hand the same way, would a defensive strategy be better ?
joekayak says: Please help me with why leading the 9 vs leading the 3 is playing offense? 5 trap?
joekayak says: Please help me with why leading the 9 vs leading the 3 is playing offense? 5 trap?
Ras2829 says: Hi JRCeagle78: This is a fine hand to play as dealer for the same reasons that it works for non-dealer. If non-dealer holding X-pointers with one or more fives (very frequent hand), dealer plays the 9 on Q or K lead, closes the count at 31-2 with the deuce and still has the 3-4 to trap non-dealer five. If non-dealer leads 10 or J, dealer plays the 2, and scores the 31-2 with the 9 spot. Still have the 3-4 in case opponent has a likely five spot. As dealer if playing defense, make the count 11 on 7-8-9 lead and score 15-2 on a six lead. Avoid pairing a nine spot. On a small card lead, pair only the deuce. Why pair the deuce and pass up pairing a trey or four? On an Ace lead, play the trey. On a four lead play the deuce. If a trey led and dealer playing defense, make the count 12 with the 9 spot. On a five lead, would you break the lower sequence by playing the trey or advancing the count to 14 with the 9 spot?
Ras2829 says: Hi JRCeagle78: This is a fine hand to play as dealer for the same reasons that it works for non-dealer. If non-dealer holding X-pointers with one or more fives (very frequent hand), dealer plays the 9 on Q or K lead, closes the count at 31-2 with the deuce and still has the 3-4 to trap non-dealer five. If non-dealer leads 10 or J, dealer plays the 2, and scores the 31-2 with the 9 spot. Still have the 3-4 in case opponent has a likely five spot. As dealer if playing defense, make the count 11 on 7-8-9 lead and score 15-2 on a six lead. Avoid pairing a nine spot. On a small card lead, pair only the deuce. Why pair the deuce and pass up pairing a trey or four? On an Ace lead, play the trey. On a four lead play the deuce. If a trey led and dealer playing defense, make the count 12 with the 9 spot. On a five lead, would you break the lower sequence by playing the trey or advancing the count to 14 with the 9 spot?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras and Jack. With these six cards; as Dealer we wouldn’t keep 2-3-4-9 and balk our crib with (A-10). We’d just keep the small run and (9-10) to our crib. But supposing Ras, that from some other hand construct we *did* keep2-3-4-9. The reason for pairing the deuce even on defense is I suppose because there is another deuce on the deck, and if n/d trips our deuce we recoup two of those points with our 9(15-2). But an argument could be made to play our escape card on the deuce opening lead as well if dealing on defense. I hope to see you in Brookline on Sunday Jack.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras and Jack. With these six cards; as Dealer we wouldn’t keep 2-3-4-9 and balk our crib with (A-10). We’d just keep the small run and (9-10) to our crib. But supposing Ras, that from some other hand construct we *did* keep2-3-4-9. The reason for pairing the deuce even on defense is I suppose because there is another deuce on the deck, and if n/d trips our deuce we recoup two of those points with our 9(15-2). But an argument could be made to play our escape card on the deuce opening lead as well if dealing on defense. I hope to see you in Brookline on Sunday Jack.
Inushtuk1 says: To joekayak: Yes the 9 lead gives us the 5 card trap, or a run of three plus a GO, as Ras explains in his post.
Inushtuk1 says: To joekayak: Yes the 9 lead gives us the 5 card trap, or a run of three plus a GO, as Ras explains in his post.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. “On a five lead, would you break the lower sequence by playing the trey or advancing the count to 14 with the 9 spot?” Assuming we’re still on defense, neither. Why give him/her a run with the 3. The 9 is better of course. But a 5 is often led from A-5-5-9, or similar.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. “On a five lead, would you break the lower sequence by playing the trey or advancing the count to 14 with the 9 spot?” Assuming we’re still on defense, neither. Why give him/her a run with the 3. The 9 is better of course. But a 5 is often led from A-5-5-9, or similar.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 1:25 PM
Definitely 2-3-4-9(A-10), and lead the 9 on offense as per Ras’s video classes.

But let’s make it a more difficult puzzle. Suppose the score is 107-116*. Do we keep A-2-3-10, or A-2-3-9, for the only two keeps that give us a chance to cut for 14? Or do we stick with the 2-3-4-9, and more cuts for improvement, and better chances to peg the two points we might need, *should* we cut for a hand worth 12 points?
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:09 PM
In think its between A-2-3-9 (4-10), 2-3-4-9 (A-10) and A-2-3-4 (9-10):

A-2-3-9: 5pts - 3½pts (Schell: 3.59) = +1½pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts - 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = +1½pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = -¼pt

Potential:

A-2-3-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 999 = 15 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 6666, 999 = 19 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well. Perhaps A-2-3-4 the best.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense to try to improve our board position.

Summary:

I think its apparent that 2-3-4-9 is better than A-2-3-9 as it has more cuts for improvement and more for a average/good hand. It does have a lower maximum though. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts but I don't think it will catch up the starting deficit of 1¾pts. So I'll throw A-10.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:31 PM
Oops! Above is average expected crib for Dealer not Pone 8-(

In think its between A-2-3-9 (4-10), 2-3-4-9 (A-10) and A-2-3-4 (9-10):

A-2-3-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = +½pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.48) = +½pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = -1¼pt

Potential:

A-2-3-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 999 = 15 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 6666, 999 = 19 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Pegging:

All three hands will peg well. Perhaps A-2-3-4 the best.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense to try to improve our board position.

Summary:

I think its apparent that 2-3-4-9 is better than A-2-3-9 as it has more cuts for improvement and more for a average/good hand. It does have a lower maximum though. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-10pts but I don't think it will catch up the starting deficit of 1¾pts. So I'll throw A-10.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:01 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_____________________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-9___8.09+2.20+(-4.24)=6.05____28.4____26.6
2-3-4-10__7.96+2.09+(-4.46)=5.59____27.4____25.6
A-2-3-10__7.78+2.04+(-4.41)=5.41____26.9____24.8
A-2-3-9___7.96+1.70+(-4.29)=5.37____27.0____25.1
A-2-3-4___8.09+1.96+(-5.69)=4.36____27.9____23.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-4-9______37.4____48.4
2-3-4-10_____37.8____49.3
A-2-3-10_____38.0____49.9
A-2-3-9______37.8____49.6
A-2-3-4______42.4____52.6

2-3-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.46pt and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. So I'll select A-10 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts
3____________________1.81
9____________________1.73
2____________________1.45
4­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­____________________1.39
Inushtuk1 says: What?! You’re not leading your 9 my cribbottic friend? Ras. What say you?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Might be a major reason that I outpeg HalscribCLX. Will lead the trey when playing defense as stay even with the dealer on pegs. My goal on first hand of game as non-dealer is to peg offensively. Am not overly concerned if dealer picks up a couple of pegs if gives me a chance to peg 3-5 holes. My thoughts are well known. Have noted several puzzles in which the cribbot chose to lead the nine form similar hands. For the .08 difference, I'll hold the 2-3-4 intact in any case calling for offensive pegging.
Inushtuk1 says: That’s what I thought you would say my human friend.
jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 6:03 PM
I guess I am now curious what Ras does when a 6 is played on his 9. I presume a 2 and then that is paired....?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi jethrotulll. I think he might play a 4, enticing Dealer’s 5(24-3), so he can drop his trey for (27-4). And if lucky enough to hear those sweet words GO, his 2 is now (29-6). But Dealer would have to have a pretty poor hand, and no prospects in the crib to fall for this ploy though.