Sunday 3:08 AM

Three points in hand, and at least two more in my crib. Plenty of helpful cuts available.

10 response to an X lead.

   

Sunday 3:12 AM

Following the small hand rule: consider your crib an extension of your hand. Hold 3 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib today.
Expected combined averages suggest this choice at .80 points more than tossing A-K. (CLiam Brown) Difference would be .87 points (Ras)

   

Sunday 3:28 AM

Three. Two . Trying to overtake the ad in this game. dec

   

Sunday 4:45 AM

When in doubt, face-five.

   

Sunday 6:24 AM

Peg aggressively

   

Sunday 1:45 PM

Could we have K-10 from pone??? :-)

   

Sunday 3:48 PM

I think its between 5-8-9-10 (A-K), A-5-10-K (8-9) and A-8-9-10 (5-K):

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 8½pts

A-5-10-K: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts

A-8-9-10: 3pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 9½pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

A-5-10-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 999 + 14xxs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7/8pts with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-5-10-K will peg somewhat best

Position:

If this is the second deal we got off to a good start and opponent scored below average. Even so ideally we would like to reach 33pts, above the average of 16pts, so I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

5-8-9-10 starts with ¼pt less than A-5-10-K and 1pt less than A-8-9-10 but has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-10pts both more than A-5-10-K but similar to A-8-9-10. So its between A-K and 5-K. A-K has a full 1pt to catch up on A-8-9-10 so despite the better potential I'll throw the 5-K.

   

Sunday 4:36 PM

At 14*-12 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
5-8-9-10__7.67+1.33+3.34=12.34____28.7____32.4
A-8-9-10__5.24+0.41+6.61=12.26____30.0____34.4
A-5-10-K__4.89+0.65+4.66=11.01____27.2____31.8

Optimal_______L8 %____L9 %
5-8-9-10______30.6____43.3
A-8-9-10______29.6____41.6
A-5-10-K______29.4____43.1

5-8-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt but A-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s which both take account of the board position. so despite the difference in expected averages and that its early in the game because the difference is only 0.08pt I'll select based om the Win/Loss %s and select 5-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.