July 8, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
14*-12  ?
68%
26%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 130

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:08 AM
Three points in hand, and at least two more in my crib. Plenty of helpful cuts available.

10 response to an X lead.
Reply
Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:12 AM
Following the small hand rule: consider your crib an extension of your hand. Hold 3 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib today.
Expected combined averages suggest this choice at .80 points more than tossing A-K. (CLiam Brown) Difference would be .87 points (Ras)
Reply
dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:28 AM
Three. Two . Trying to overtake the ad in this game. dec
Reply
Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 4:45 AM
When in doubt, face-five.
Reply
glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 6:24 AM
Peg aggressively
Reply
joekayak
557 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Sunday 1:45 PM
Could we have K-10 from pone??? :-)
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 3:48 PM
I think its between 5-8-9-10 (A-K), A-5-10-K (8-9) and A-8-9-10 (5-K):

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 8½pts

A-5-10-K: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts

A-8-9-10: 3pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 9½pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

A-5-10-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 999 + 14xxs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.

A-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7/8pts with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-5-10-K will peg somewhat best

Position:

If this is the second deal we got off to a good start and opponent scored below average. Even so ideally we would like to reach 33pts, above the average of 16pts, so I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

5-8-9-10 starts with ¼pt less than A-5-10-K and 1pt less than A-8-9-10 but has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-10pts both more than A-5-10-K but similar to A-8-9-10. So its between A-K and 5-K. A-K has a full 1pt to catch up on A-8-9-10 so despite the better potential I'll throw the 5-K.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 4:36 PM
At 14*-12 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
5-8-9-10__7.67+1.33+3.34=12.34____28.7____32.4
A-8-9-10__5.24+0.41+6.61=12.26____30.0____34.4
A-5-10-K__4.89+0.65+4.66=11.01____27.2____31.8

Optimal_______L8 %____L9 %
5-8-9-10______30.6____43.3
A-8-9-10______29.6____41.6
A-5-10-K______29.4____43.1

5-8-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt but A-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s which both take account of the board position. so despite the difference in expected averages and that its early in the game because the difference is only 0.08pt I'll select based om the Win/Loss %s and select 5-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Reply