July 8, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
|Total votes: 130|
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Joined: June 2013
Sunday 3:08 AM
Three points in hand, and at least two more in my crib. Plenty of helpful cuts available.
10 response to an X lead.
Joined: March 2016
Sunday 3:12 AM
Following the small hand rule: consider your crib an extension of your hand. Hold 3 points in the hand and 2 points in the crib today.
Expected combined averages suggest this choice at .80 points more than tossing A-K. (CLiam Brown) Difference would be .87 points (Ras)
Joined: April 2008
Sunday 3:28 AM
Three. Two . Trying to overtake the ad in this game. dec
Joined: March 2008
Sunday 4:45 AM
When in doubt, face-five.
Joined: April 2011
Sunday 6:24 AM
Joined: May 2016
Sunday 1:45 PM
Could we have K-10 from pone??? :-)
Joined: October 2007
Sunday 3:48 PM
I think its between 5-8-9-10 (A-K), A-5-10-K (8-9) and A-8-9-10 (5-K):
5-8-9-10: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 8½pts
A-5-10-K: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts
A-8-9-10: 3pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 9½pts
5-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.
A-5-10-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 999 + 14xxs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, KKK = 13 cuts.
A-8-9-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 6/7/8pts with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 20 cuts.
I think A-5-10-K will peg somewhat best
If this is the second deal we got off to a good start and opponent scored below average. Even so ideally we would like to reach 33pts, above the average of 16pts, so I'll continue to play Offense.
5-8-9-10 starts with ¼pt less than A-5-10-K and 1pt less than A-8-9-10 but has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-10pts both more than A-5-10-K but similar to A-8-9-10. So its between A-K and 5-K. A-K has a full 1pt to catch up on A-8-9-10 so despite the better potential I'll throw the 5-K.
Joined: February 2008
Sunday 4:36 PM
At 14*-12 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
Optimal_______L8 %____L9 %
5-8-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.08pt but A-8-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s which both take account of the board position. so despite the difference in expected averages and that its early in the game because the difference is only 0.08pt I'll select based om the Win/Loss %s and select 5-K to discard.
After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.