July 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
37*-42  ?
56%
16%
9%
6%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156

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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:12 AM
I know I am chancing on a potential twelve but I just love chuckin me some nickels in my crib. On a side note my wife and I both qualified yesterday with both 18-8-112 in a twelve gamer , I got a bye thou with better plus points. It was all good thou. dec
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james500
1890 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:49 AM
8-9 and 9-10 are both interesting but, as with dec, I think it might be better to put 5-? in the box.
Seven known points before the cut, plus a peg. Only a 3 or 4 will not immediately improve the value of my hand. Either may help to create a run with the 2-5 though, and now I've seen 3S on the deck, let's hope that that's the case.
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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:13 AM
I usually settle for expected averages and that would mean to toss 5-5 to my own crib with this hand today. There is a difference of .94 points between tossing 5-5 and 2-5.
Holding 5-8-9-T with a 5 in my crib is a much better hand to hold with only two cuts (3,4) that do not improve the value of the hand.
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Gougie00
3630 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:05 AM
The choice is either 8-9 or 9-10. Neither are particularly eye-catching but I opted for 8-9 just in case of a 7 being cut or given by the opponent.

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bbaer1
2470 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Monday 5:16 AM
I'm counting the 5-5 toss to myself as eight points, holding three and adding the dealer's obligatory peg makes a dozen. Taking any safe pegs offered as I could use a few more points. Nice run by Inushtuk in yesterday's consolation tournament!
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wasa
950 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 6:50 AM
My first thought was keep 2-5-5-8 for 6 points and toss the 9-T. Second thoughts were to toss the 5-5 for a sure 5 points. Recalling advice from this site, went for the 5-5 toss.
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 12:38 PM
Tossing 5-5, while keeping the 3-card run, starts us off with a guaranteed 6 points. The 3 cut brings our guarantee to 8 points.

Since I already start this hand in the hole by 5 holes, I will play defensively as possible to limit his pegging.
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:30 PM
Do we throw one 5, both or none?:

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 10½pts

2-8-9-10: 3pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 11¾pts

2-5-5-8: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 10¼pts

Potential:

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/10pts with 55, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 19 cuts.

2-8-9-10: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 101010 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 6/7/8pts with 55, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 14 cuts.

2-5-5-8: Improves with 222, 3333, 55, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 55, 888 + 15xXs = 23 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-5-5-8 will peg best.

Position:

We only need 7pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Defense and try to slow opponent up.

Summary:

2-8-9-10 has the best starting value by 1¼-1½pts but 5-8-9-10 has better potential.whilst 2-5-5-8 has the best maximum. Because of the better starting value I'll throw 5-5.
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HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 4:05 PM
At 37*-42 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-8-9-10__5.15+2.74+8.71=16.60____26.2____23.0
5S-8-9-10_7.63+3.39+5.37=16.39____23.8____20.7
2-5-5-10__8.52+3.11+4.52=16.15____24.6____21.4
2-5-5-8___8.78+3.41+3.81=16.00____23.9____21.9

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
2-8-9-10______40.9____56.3
5S-8-9-10_____42.3____58.9
2-5-5-10______41.1____57.7
2-5-5-8_______39.9____57.1

2-8-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.21pts and is best for Win %s and a very close second for Loss %s to 2-5-5-8. So I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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Ras2829
3129 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 4:17 PM
Submitted this puzzle as was amazed that 2-5 and 5-5 combined values were only about .2 difference favoring the 5-5. At hole 37, I have a real positional disadvantage with a need to be dealing from second street CPZ 43-47. So it's off., off., off., for me. Will take any pegs offered me. Note that 2-5-5-8 is fourth in combined value in HalscribCLX analysis above.
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Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 5:29 PM
In agreement with the majority. Pone’s scoring average is 10 holes, putting him/her at 52 as Dealer next hand. That means our goal is 59 minimum here. Offense for sure. Take everything.
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