July 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ilostmyjob
109-107*  ?
54%
27%
5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 174
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:14 AM
I like the cuts that could put us at 118 or deeper to start and trying to peg the least compared to getting cuts with the flush and end up a litle less and trying to eg a whole bunch on the next hand.Going ... Going probably gone.. dec
Guest says: Where is the Maine maniac this morning ?
Guest says: Right behind you.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:38 AM
After I count this hand, Dealer will count the next three. This needs to be a big hand then.
Need to see another 4, Ace (of diamonds ideally), or the Queen of diamonds turned over, if I'm to stand a chance of winning.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:10 AM
Not a time or position for defense with dealer only needing 14. Best long shot I have. Need what James says. Oh well...
joekayak says: Keeping the flush reduces us to needing the AD, 5D, or QD to get to 119, 119, or 118 respectively. Three cards. Would rather have ANY 4, ANY Ace or ANY Queen to get to 119, 119, 118 respectively. Probably still losing but would rather have 10 outs (21.7%) than 3 outs (7.1%).
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:03 AM
May as well go for it because there wont be another deal.
Inushtuk1
1485 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:56 AM
I agree with all the commenters so far. If this isn’t a time to be BOLD it’s pretty darn close.

Horrible cut for us. That 3 is a key connector as well. So there’s a good chance it helped our worthy opponent. Looks bad for the good guys. Not sure what is best to lead to be honest. I’ll lead my Ace, so as to avoid it being trapped at the end of the first play series should Dealer feel s/he is a bit short and be looking for that trap. I’m pretty sure it won’t be paired. that’s for sure. And if Dealer was forced to keep a double run of face cards my 4 is good for a (15-2). Then I *might*, if real lucky be able to pair a face card, or trap a Q on the second play series. Mostly just trying to cut the spread, and give it the good old college try.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:11 AM
Who can remember the last time it rained...?
Gougie00 says: as we say in Boston, "it rained like a bahstahd" last Friday.
Guest says: Noah can.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Here in Southwest Washington State, we had .13 of rain in May. That set a record for "dry" that went back to the start of record keeping in 1890. June was about the same and July has seen no measurable rainfall. It has not been hot, only a few days over 80. Most daytime highs have been 72-78 and night time lows have been 48-55. Although wildfire season got an early start, near record snowpack in north Cascades this past winter may save us from severe drought.
wasa
3016 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:29 AM
Reading the comments, I didn't give this enough thought. I know opponent has "3 hands" to get 14 points, and I need 12. Thought the flush gives me a better pegging hand. Hindsight, maybe the A-4-J-K better due to cuts of AAA444QQQQ to get me close.
wasa says: Maybe opponent will get the famous "2 point hand, 2 point crib"? Happens to me too often!
Hillchem says: I didn't like that the max would be 8 points with A or 4. Even with the cut, things don't look promising.
Hillchem says: I didn't like that the max would be 8 points with A or 4. Even with the cut, things don't look promising.
Guest says: Tommy two times........
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:00 PM
At 109pts with first take and Dealer only 14pts from Home I'll go for the hand with the best chance of scoring 12pts regardless of expected averages:

A-4-J-K scores 10pts with QD
_________________9pts QQQ
________________11pts AD
________________10pts AA, 444
_________________8pts JJJ, KKK

So I'll throw 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:10 PM
At 109-107* playing an Offense strategy the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense_________Win %____Loss %
A-4-J-K_________11.3_____69.8
4-7-J-K__________7.7_____50.8
A-4-7-8__________3.6_____56.1

We have a better chance of surviving to the next deal with the flush but I'll go with the better Win % and select 7-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the A and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.______Loss %
K___________________1.24_____________51.0
J___________________1.21_____________49.8
A___________________0.79_____________45.9
4___________________0.72_____________47.9
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 12:56 PM
Go for it! Not much chance to win 12 points out. There's one chance in 4 that I can win with first count here. Might not be a chance at all if looking to the next deal. Dealer is not going to pair an opening lead unless cards are small enough (7 down) to fit all four in under the count of 31 and dealer is holding a pair that matches lead. So will lead the King after the lousy cut, keeping the two small cards intact. Other places on the board, would lead the Jack as the Jack is the most likely 10-point card that dealer will put in own crib as in 10-J, J-Q, J-J, 5-J, J with a small card, J with a mid card, etc. Note in HalscribCLX analysis even in this end-game scenario that the J lead is only .03 (hundredths) off the King lead.
ILostMyJob
3564 votes

Joined: September 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:09 PM
I played the flush, thinking it was ok offense and also decent defense, maybe letting me peg out on the next hand. Didn't want to throw 78 and lose on a big crib. The flip card was a QH. I got 3 pegs during play and sat at 119 after the hand. Dealer at 117. Lost 121-120.