July 11, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
|Total votes: 160|
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Joined: October 2008
Wednesday 3:32 AM
Toss 6-7 is too dangerous, especially at this *relative* position.
Joined: March 2016
Wednesday 3:38 AM
Agree with JQT, tossing 6-7 is not a option. Going with holding a 3 card eleven hand, the highest combined expected averages, and the lowest valued toss to dealer today.
Joined: April 2008
Wednesday 4:11 AM
When going good this turns out to be 6-8 points with a zero crib. Not good only four with a huge crib. Also this hand could be troublesome in the pegging so three lead hope its not a pairing first. dec
Joined: June 2013
Wednesday 4:17 AM
I agree that 6-7 to keep four points isn't a price worth paying, but is the only alternative K-10?
- Every cut bar an 8 will increase the value of this hand, (42/46)*100= about 92% that will.
- Three card eleven of 3-2-6 may yield both 15/2 and 31/2 in the pegging.
- No synergy between the two cards discarded, so should be safe enough.
Joined: March 2008
Wednesday 4:24 AM
Had there been a flush in that mass of black cards, I would have gone that way. I'll keep the peggers and toss my opponent the K-10. Lead the 3 and take whatever points that present.
Joined: April 2011
Wednesday 6:22 AM
I agree with everything Gougie says.
Joined: July 2016
Wednesday 8:08 AM
Well I agree with everything Gary said about what Gougie said. This hand has a max of 8. The 2-3-10-K only has a max two points higher. I can’t think of any position, other than an end-game scenario, where I needed to discard for maximum count, where (6-7) would be appropriate.
We had a puzzle last year or the one before. A-2-4-8-10-K, where Ras said (10-K) was the correct toss no matter the strategy. I think this hand belongs in the same category. Another one would be A-2-5-7-10-K.
Our choice has a “Magic Five, and a “Magic Eleven”, for a (15-2) and a (31-2). What more could we ask for?
We hit our maximum. That still leaves us short. Offense with the 3 lead.
Joined: June 2016
Wednesday 8:59 AM
K-T has the highest potential of blanking the dealers crib and with the 6 cut. that opinion is reinforced. I'll play defense and lead the 3
Joined: May 2016
Wednesday 9:59 AM
Inushtuk1 and JRCeagle78...one says def and one says off...lead the 3 and play?? Since I am going to be well short of my next CPZ...it feels like I want to slow down opponent....defense??
Joined: October 2007
Wednesday 12:25 PM
10-K will be much safer than 6-7 although it starts with 2pts less in hand:
2-3-6-7 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts
2-3-10-K: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2pts
2-3-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 27 cuts.
2-3-10-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts.
I think 2-3-6-7 will peg much better with low and middle cards plus a 3-card magic eleven.
It looks as if its third deal and as First Pone I'll continue to play Offense.
The starting vale for both hands is the same at -2pts but 2-3-6-7 has better potential with 27 cuts that improve tremendously from 2pts to 5-8pts. It also should peg much better. So I'll throw the 10-K.
Joined: February 2008
Wednesday 1:07 PM
At 28-27* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.45pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and Lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.
After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:
Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
Joined: November 2008
Wednesday 10:52 PM
Inushtuk1 says everything for me - just an echo here today.