July 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
28-27*  ?
60%
25%
3%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:32 AM
Toss 6-7 is too dangerous, especially at this *relative* position.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. I hope you are *relatively* well today. Can you give us a position, other than an end-game scenario, where (6-7) would be apropos? Thanks in advance.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:38 AM
Agree with JQT, tossing 6-7 is not a option. Going with holding a 3 card eleven hand, the highest combined expected averages, and the lowest valued toss to dealer today.
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:11 AM
When going good this turns out to be 6-8 points with a zero crib. Not good only four with a huge crib. Also this hand could be troublesome in the pegging so three lead hope its not a pairing first. dec
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:17 AM
I agree that 6-7 to keep four points isn't a price worth paying, but is the only alternative K-10?

- Every cut bar an 8 will increase the value of this hand, (42/46)*100= about 92% that will.
- Three card eleven of 3-2-6 may yield both 15/2 and 31/2 in the pegging.
- No synergy between the two cards discarded, so should be safe enough.
Guest says: James, I think that your first two points also apply to holding the 2, 3, 6, 7 except that any card cut improves it. There could be some danger from a K 10 discard but I think it is worth it based on the higher potential value of the 2, 3, 6, 7.
Guest says: Hi Guest, I hope you're well. I make you, (and all the other commenters thus far), right about which is the better choice today. The only way to prove it though, is to test against alternatives. In this spirit, I offered up 236T-K7 this morning as a sort of "straw man" argument. A proposal that I felt would fall short under scrutiny, but by having this further comparative analysis, will serve to show the strength of the 2367-TK option by having it be seen to beat two alternatives rather than just 23TK-67. It is evident by your response to me, that you have carried out exactly this analysis, and are more secure and confident in your choice as a result.
james500 says: Me above, must've forgot to log in.
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:24 AM
Had there been a flush in that mass of black cards, I would have gone that way. I'll keep the peggers and toss my opponent the K-10. Lead the 3 and take whatever points that present.
glmccuskey
4093 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:22 AM
I agree with everything Gougie says.
Inushtuk1
1479 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:08 AM
Well I agree with everything Gary said about what Gougie said. This hand has a max of 8. The 2-3-10-K only has a max two points higher. I can’t think of any position, other than an end-game scenario, where I needed to discard for maximum count, where (6-7) would be appropriate.

We had a puzzle last year or the one before. A-2-4-8-10-K, where Ras said (10-K) was the correct toss no matter the strategy. I think this hand belongs in the same category. Another one would be A-2-5-7-10-K.

Our choice has a “Magic Five, and a “Magic Eleven”, for a (15-2) and a (31-2). What more could we ask for?

We hit our maximum. That still leaves us short. Offense with the 3 lead.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:59 AM
K-T has the highest potential of blanking the dealers crib and with the 6 cut. that opinion is reinforced. I'll play defense and lead the 3
wasa says: Story time - played against my son last weekend. I tossed T-K, he tossed a pair of queens, and a jack was cut. I know people don't always remember the 0 or 2 point cribs with T-K, but I'll remember the 10 point crib my son had!
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:59 AM
Inushtuk1 and JRCeagle78...one says def and one says off...lead the 3 and play?? Since I am going to be well short of my next CPZ...it feels like I want to slow down opponent....defense??
Inushtuk1 says: Well there’s definitely room for a difference of opinion, as far as pegging strategy goes sometimes after the cut. That’s what drove me nuts reading Chambers book. I often thought my strategy should be the opposite of what he advised. But you’re certainly not going to turn down that (15-2) are you? And definitely not going to turn down that (31-2), closing the count. As for me; I’ll pair a 6 response (15-4) risking trips, especially with a 6 on deck. Likewise with a 7 response. I want to be dealing as close as possible to my CPZ. I can’t speak for Jack; but that’s what I’ll do. In the interest of full disclosure...I’ve never beaten Jack at any N.E. Tournaments. Hopefully that will all change this weekend. ; - ).
JQT says: Sometimes the most defensive lead is also the most offensive lead as well.
Inushtuk1 says: Yup.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:25 PM
10-K will be much safer than 6-7 although it starts with 2pts less in hand:

2-3-6-7 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

2-3-10-K: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2pts

Potential:

2-3-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 27 cuts.

2-3-10-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-6-7 will peg much better with low and middle cards plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

It looks as if its third deal and as First Pone I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

The starting vale for both hands is the same at -2pts but 2-3-6-7 has better potential with 27 cuts that improve tremendously from 2pts to 5-8pts. It also should peg much better. So I'll throw the 10-K.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:07 PM
At 28-27* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-3-6-7___5.52+2.09+(-4.09)=3.52____25.4____23.8
2-3-6-10__4.70+1.59+(-4.22)=2.07____22.1____20.8
2-3-7-10__4.70+1.52+(-4.16)=2.06____21.9____21.2
2-3-7-K___4.70+1.54+(-4.38)=1.86____21.8____20.5
2-3-6-K___4.70+1.57+(-4.43)=1.84____22.0____20.4
2-3-10-K__6.52+1.30+(-6.17)=1.65____24.9____20.6

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-6-7______39.2____53.7
2-3-6-10_____39.7____56.5
2-3-7-10_____39.1____56.0
2-3-7-K______39.9____56.8
2-3-6-K______40.4____57.0
2-3-10-K_____43.9____57.3

2-3-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.45pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and Lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
3_______________1.96
7_______________1.78
2_______________1.68
6_______________1.60
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:52 PM
Inushtuk1 says everything for me - just an echo here today.