July 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
28-27*  ?
60%
25%
3%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 160

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JQT
2408 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:32 AM
Toss 6-7 is too dangerous, especially at this *relative* position.
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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:38 AM
Agree with JQT, tossing 6-7 is not a option. Going with holding a 3 card eleven hand, the highest combined expected averages, and the lowest valued toss to dealer today.
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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 4:11 AM
When going good this turns out to be 6-8 points with a zero crib. Not good only four with a huge crib. Also this hand could be troublesome in the pegging so three lead hope its not a pairing first. dec
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james500
1890 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 4:17 AM
I agree that 6-7 to keep four points isn't a price worth paying, but is the only alternative K-10?

- Every cut bar an 8 will increase the value of this hand, (42/46)*100= about 92% that will.
- Three card eleven of 3-2-6 may yield both 15/2 and 31/2 in the pegging.
- No synergy between the two cards discarded, so should be safe enough.
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Gougie00
3630 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 4:24 AM
Had there been a flush in that mass of black cards, I would have gone that way. I'll keep the peggers and toss my opponent the K-10. Lead the 3 and take whatever points that present.
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glmccuskey
2765 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 6:22 AM
I agree with everything Gougie says.
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Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 8:08 AM
Well I agree with everything Gary said about what Gougie said. This hand has a max of 8. The 2-3-10-K only has a max two points higher. I can’t think of any position, other than an end-game scenario, where I needed to discard for maximum count, where (6-7) would be appropriate.

We had a puzzle last year or the one before. A-2-4-8-10-K, where Ras said (10-K) was the correct toss no matter the strategy. I think this hand belongs in the same category. Another one would be A-2-5-7-10-K.

Our choice has a “Magic Five, and a “Magic Eleven”, for a (15-2) and a (31-2). What more could we ask for?

We hit our maximum. That still leaves us short. Offense with the 3 lead.
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 8:59 AM
K-T has the highest potential of blanking the dealers crib and with the 6 cut. that opinion is reinforced. I'll play defense and lead the 3
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joekayak
507 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Wednesday 9:59 AM
Inushtuk1 and JRCeagle78...one says def and one says off...lead the 3 and play?? Since I am going to be well short of my next CPZ...it feels like I want to slow down opponent....defense??
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 12:25 PM
10-K will be much safer than 6-7 although it starts with 2pts less in hand:

2-3-6-7 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

2-3-10-K: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2pts

Potential:

2-3-6-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 27 cuts.

2-3-10-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-6-7 will peg much better with low and middle cards plus a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

It looks as if its third deal and as First Pone I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

The starting vale for both hands is the same at -2pts but 2-3-6-7 has better potential with 27 cuts that improve tremendously from 2pts to 5-8pts. It also should peg much better. So I'll throw the 10-K.
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HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:07 PM
At 28-27* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-3-6-7___5.52+2.09+(-4.09)=3.52____25.4____23.8
2-3-6-10__4.70+1.59+(-4.22)=2.07____22.1____20.8
2-3-7-10__4.70+1.52+(-4.16)=2.06____21.9____21.2
2-3-7-K___4.70+1.54+(-4.38)=1.86____21.8____20.5
2-3-6-K___4.70+1.57+(-4.43)=1.84____22.0____20.4
2-3-10-K__6.52+1.30+(-6.17)=1.65____24.9____20.6

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-6-7______39.2____53.7
2-3-6-10_____39.7____56.5
2-3-7-10_____39.1____56.0
2-3-7-K______39.9____56.8
2-3-6-K______40.4____57.0
2-3-10-K_____43.9____57.3

2-3-6-7 is best for expected averages by 1.45pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and Lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
3_______________1.96
7_______________1.78
2_______________1.68
6_______________1.60
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Ras2829
3129 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 10:52 PM
Inushtuk1 says everything for me - just an echo here today.
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