July 12, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
96*-106  ?
41%
38%
12%
4%
3%
Total votes: 146

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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:36 AM
Nice one james500.
Close statistics on either 8-9 or 3-4 to our crib. Chose the smaller run for pegging at this position.
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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:44 AM
Offense with the keep, offense on the pegging... to a certain point. dec
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Gougie00
3630 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 4:53 AM
arghhh... I want a redo!
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glmccuskey
2765 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 6:15 AM
I like 3-4-5 better then 8-9-10. I’ll lead the ten, keeping the 3-4-5 intact for pegging.
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JQT
2408 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 7:22 AM
Could be a matter of style: I like 'small' cards in my Crib, but others may prefer to throw 8-9.
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cribbagepogo
2663 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 9:20 AM
I like the flush in the crib on the off chance.
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Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 10:04 AM
It’s a pity that the (9-10) has such a low crib average compared to the (8-9); as I would have liked to have kept that 3-4-5-8 for its higher maximum and the two-card “Magic Eleven”

Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
3129 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 10:33 AM
The 8-9 has considerably higher average to dealer crib because of the frequent 10 spot discard. Conversely the 9-10 has considerably lower average because of the infrequent Jack. The suited 9-10 average .04 more than the unsuited 9-10. True, the only way to get a crib flush is to put two cards of same suit in there. Even so, you'll have to play about 80 games to see one of those flushes. With opponent 15 holes away with dealer pegging advantage on upcoming hand, got to play defense here and play off the lead. Was thinking def., def., def coming out of the gate. How about you?
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 10:58 AM
I think it must be between 3-4-5-10 (8-9) and 5-8-9-10 (3-4):

3-4-5-10: 5pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 9¾pts

5-8-9-10: 5pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts.

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 555, 7777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 3-4-5-10 will peg better than 5-8-9-10 playing Offense.

Position:

We're at 4th street positional hole as Dealer but Pone is 10pts ahead so is also in position. Every hole past 112pts we can score will be vital but on the other hand we do not want opponent to be within pegging distance for next deal. So I'll score points where I can but relatively safely.

Summary:

3-4-5-10 has more cuts for improvement and although it has the same 20 cuts for 8-12pts it has more cuts for 12pts (333, 555 vs. 555). So I'll throw 8-9.
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HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 12:04 PM
At 96*-106 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-4-5-10__8.02+(-2.20)+4.57=10.39____2.1____35.4
5-8-9-10__7.76+(-2.09)+4.60=10.27____1.2____34.4
3-4-5-8___8.15+(-2.20)+3.95= 9.90____1.6____33.8

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
3-4-5-10______16.0____61.1
5-8-9-10______16.4____62.4
3-4-5-8_______17.7____63.1

3-4-5-10 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt and is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 1:26 PM
Every cut but the 9 will increase this hand to some degree. The nine will benefit the 8-9 in my crib. I'll play a cautious defense and I could end up around hole 110-111. I will hold out hope that the pone had an unnecessary 9 that he put into the crib.
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