August 15, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
67*-83  ?
44%
21%
11%
7%
6%
3%
3%
0%
Total votes: 160
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:08 AM
Double run I believe is the way to go and two cards in our crib totaling 5 (suited) is still possible. More cuts for improvement than tossing A-5 which has 27 cuts that keep the hand at 8 points. .Let's see what others will choose.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:17 AM
I like the double run. Considerd 4-4. Nice cut. I’ll lead a four a peg defensively.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:18 AM
16-17-20 I like this keep might even peg more and even with the cut crib might fill also. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:45 AM
A-4c, A-5 or 4-4 all seem reasonable options, and I'm not sure which is best. I'll rely on the analysis and opinions of others to guide me.

Nice cut, whichever of the three camps you're in.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:46 AM
I'll hold the double-run. I considered the flush.
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:46 AM
Again, we deal just shy of par.

A-5 is only a bit stronger than A-4 in our Crib, and yet the Double Run is a much superior hand, so we'll toss a suited A-4.
Guest says: Here's a question that's unlikely to factor with any real consequence: but I wondered if I'd be better off chasing a third of the remaining clubs from my opponent and his cut or if I could milk more points by pegging and keeping three clubs in my hand and faking the flush. But given that the payoff card is a 4D, I'd be basically playing for the case 4, I guess? And that seemed a longer shot than chasing the long shot crib flush. I'm sure there are other ways to profit from the fake that I'm not thinking of. In the end, I kept the fake flush just guessing that I could eke more value with the clubs over the long haul that way. Of course, that's something HAL would never quantify.
JQT says: Interesting Thoughts ... you never stop thinking ... very good ideas ... yet, we must be careful, as 'misplaced precision often stifles our initiative' ; - ]
Guest says: As of the moment I type this, it appears roughly 25% of 3-4-4-5 holders have decided to hold clubs in hand for fake as opposed to seeking a crib flush with the suited-to-clubs A-4. I suppose there is no real way to weigh the better play? Again, I know I'm talking about percentages that almost can't possibly matter. I'm just curious and hoping there are some math geeks who might also possibly care?
Coeurdelion says: I tend to the think that the value of a fake flush is imperceptible while the value of a a crib flush is quantifiable.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:59 AM
Possible 20 hand and suited A4, what's not to like....
cribbagepogo
3245 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:49 AM
At first I would have join Dan but decided the flush looked good with a pair of 4's in the crib. I'll live with it.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:52 AM
Okay. Here’s what this week has taught me. Even though I am - 3 and Pone is plus 23 I should play defense before the cut. If I can keep the Pone short of 95/96 I could get back the advantage, especially with these cards. If not after this deal then after the next one. Yes, the double run is by far the better hand. *But* it does mean retaining the 5 in your hand. This keep removes the 5 card trap threat. Of course all those holding the double run, (and now 20 points; I HATE THAT), could simply take the (15-2) on any X-card lead, eliminating the possible (15-6) in the second play series. But if Pone pairs your 5 for (20-2). You end up in a possible run pegging scenario. Thus: X(10)-5(15-2)-5(20-2)-3(23)-4(27-3)-4(31-4). You made out okay to be sure. But the Pone scored 5 pegs. Not very defensivey.

So just to play devil’s advocate I’ll try it this way.

I’ve only got 15 known points. this puts me at 82. I’ll have to peg offensively unlike you wise guys. Playing my 3 on an x-card lead, hoping for a (31-4) from my magic 11.
Guest says: in the pegging scenario above you gave the non dealer the case four. Unlikely.
Inushtuk1 says: True. I think I’m guilty of overthinking again.
Inushtuk1 says: But hey! That’s OK. It’s who I am, it’s what I do.
JQT says: Don't 'think yourself' out of holding a good hand!
Inushtuk1 says: Yup.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1: Not often you have an option of holding two sets of cards for a potential 20 points. Guess you could have found that 4s!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Sometimes double run hypnosis is a *good* thing. ; - )
glmccuskey says: You weren’t that far off. I like your out of box thinking sometimes. Your one of the comments I read thoroughly everyday.
glmccuskey says: I like to think we both continue to learn and I like that about any player. I see to many that are though learning because they know it all. I like playing them
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Thanks Gary.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:19 PM
Three possibilities I think - 3-4-4-4 (A-5), 3-4-4-5 (A-4C) and A-3-4C-5 (4-4):

3-4-4-4: 8pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 13½pts

3-4-4-5: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 13¼pts

A-3-4C-5: 7pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 12¾pts

Potential:

3-4-4-4: Improves with 2222, 333, 4, 555, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 14/17/20pts with 2222, 4, 555, 7777, 8888 = 16pts.

3-4-4-5: Improves with 2222, 333, 4, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 2222, 333, 4, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 = 23 cuts.

A-3-4C-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0 % up to 11/12/14pts with 2222, 333, 4, 555, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Pegging:

All the hands may peg well but perhaps the flush best playing Offense and 3-4-4-4 playing Defense.

Position:

We're 3pts short of the positional hole 70pts and Pone is 3pts short of where they want to be at 86pts. We have a better than average hand so I'll try to keep Pone short on the pegging.

Summary:

3-4-4-5 starts with only ¼pt short of 3-4-4-4. It is only 7 cuts short of the flush for cuts for improvement and it has 23 cuts for 12-20pts. So I'll throw the suited A-4.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:29 PM
At 68*-83 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3-4-4-5*__11.76+(-2.35)+5.02=14.43____15.6____31.0
A-3-4C-5__11.22+(-2.09)+5.08=14.21____13.7____28.3
3-4-4-4___10.93+(-2.30)+5.30=13.93____13.7____30.6

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3-4-4-5*______41.1____58.9
A-3-4C-5______43.9____62.8
3-4-4-4_______37.5____59.0

* suited A-4

3-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt over the flush and 0.50pt over 3-4-4-4. It is also appreciably best for Win %s although 3-4-4-4 is lowest for Loss %s. Even so I'll select AC-4C to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll Play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 2:41 PM
It's off., off., def. for me. Note the downshift to a defensive pegging strategy once RAS sees the starter card and know that I have a guaranteed peg as dealer, a 20-pt hand, and a minimum of two points in crib. That puts me at hole 90 and need my next deal from 4th street CPZ 95-99. Will play off the lead with a four spot unless the lead is a four. Of course would jump at pairing a four lead since I have two in hand and the third in crib. If a 5 or 6 were led, would play from the bottom of my hand. Although crib flush occurs once in 79 games (719 deals), since tossing A-4 ought to make those suited. Cards of same suit to own crib are worth .03-.05 generally dependent on how many of the suit we have observed in hand. The value here in crib is at the lower end of that scale as we had four clubs, making only 9 available. If we only had two clubs that would make 11 available, then the potential value would be at the upper end of the scale. In any case, the added value to crib is extremely small as is the "fake the flush" option in the pegging game. Faking a flush is much more likely to be effective when the cards shown are not usually seen together (9h/Kh, 9c/Qc, etc.) A "flush fake" with most players will hardly be noticed if you are showing cards that fit together naturally (suited A/4, 2/3, 7/8, etc. Faking a flush has a better chance of being observed if played by the non-dealer as those first two suited cards are on display earlier in play. The dealer is not able to "fake a flush" until 4th card in a pegging sequence and that is getting rather far along to be noticed.