August 17, 2018
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Total votes: 152 |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Friday 3:03 AM
K-9, woof!
Every cut improves this hand. 4 lead from 4-A-6 eleven. |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Friday 3:15 AM
4-6 no K-9 yes. Whatsup with the line in front of the first zero? dec Rosemarie44 says: Typo? |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Friday 3:48 AM
Both 9-K and 4-K are in the same Ras's camp. I chose the hand, possibly incorrectly, with the chance of improvement to 10 points. Holding A-4-6-8 could well make up the difference in its pegging ability which is all about Ras. Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rosemarie. Good point about A-4-6-8 pegging better. But our choice pegs well too. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Friday 4:28 AM
I’ll lead the ace and peg what I can get. |
Jazzselke 2569 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Friday 4:40 AM
Possible 10 hand as Rosemarie mentions. Would lead the 6, have a retaliatory 9 if 15'ed. |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Friday 4:46 AM
A meh hand to start. I'll toss 4-Face, and lead the 8. Guest says: Good Luck today. Rosemarie44 |
polynumeral 4507 votes Joined: December 2008 |
    Friday 5:13 AM
Was an emotive choice love to flush |
Inushtuk1 1464 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Friday 6:54 AM
Only this hand, and the flush will give me 10 points. And my heart can’t take the (4-6) toss. Of the cards at our disposal; (K-9), (K-6), (K-8), and (K-A) are the lowest scoring discards in that order, without factoring in any negative delta. This according to Ras’s crib averages. Yet (K-4) is also in the top 15. And we have some negative delta with us holding a 4 in our hand.
I’ll try the A lead; Alkas style. Inushtuk1 says: Perhaps on Fourth Street (K-9) would be my choice. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Friday 7:09 AM
Yeah yeah, I get it. I need to look over those discard tables everyone has familiarized themselves with. Liam says this is the aggressive choice. I'm good with agression. |
wasa 2991 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Friday 9:00 AM
Considered the 4-K but decided that "it pays to flush" so I'm one of the few to admit this. Max hand is still 10 points (7s). Good to read what others think as 9-K not really on my radar as first deal pone. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Friday 9:58 AM
I think its between A-6-8-9 (4-K), A-8-9-K (4-6) and A-4-6-8 (9-K):
A-6-8-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = -½pt A-8-9-K: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = -1½pts A-4-6-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = -2pts Potential: A-6-8-9: Improves with AAA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 20 cuts. A-8-9-K: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010, KKK = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 7/8/9pts with 5555, 666, 7777, 10101010 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt. A-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 888, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 6/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts. Pegging: Although flusehs usually peg will with only one low card I do not think this will be so with A-8-9-K. A-6-8-9 should peg quite well but perhaps A-4-6-9 the best with more lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven. Position: As First Pone I'll play Offense. Summary: A-6-8-9 has a starting value 2/2½pts better than the other two. Although it has less cuts for improvement it has 20 cuts for 7-10pts. It also will peg reasonably well and holding an A there will be a small amout of negative delta. So I'll throw the 4-K. |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Friday 10:24 AM
me 2 |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Friday 10:25 AM
that is |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Friday 10:42 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 % A-6-8-9___6.13+1.22+(-4.26)=3.09____21.7____21.5 A-4-6-8___5.04+1.93+(-4.07)=2.90____21.2____21.5 A-8-9-K___6.15+1.37+(-5.12)=2.40____22.0____21.0 Offense______L9 %____L10 % A-6-8-9______36.9____52.0 A-4-6-8______36.3____51.9 A-8-9-K______38.5____52.9 A-6-8-9 is 0.19pt better than A-4-6-8 for expected averages and 0.69pt better than the flush. It is also slightly best for Win %s although A-4-6-8 is very slightly better than A-6-8-9 for Loss %s because of the safer 9-K. Both Win %s and loss %s take account of the board position but as its the start of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 4-K to discard. After the Q cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense: Lead___________Our Pegging Pts. 8___________________1.49 9___________________1.24 A___________________1.21 6___________________1.09 wasa says: Maybe I'm not reading the chart right, but the claim "... it is also slightly best for win %s" to me is A-8-9-K which is 22.0% chance Win in 9 deals compared to 21.7% chance Win in 9 deals for A-6-8-9. Yes, it is 0.3% difference, but still, the claim that A-6-8-9 is the "best" for Win % is (to me) not strictly correct. Coeurdelion says: The flush is 0.3% better for Win %s in deal 9 and 0.5% lower in deal 10. So not much in it but over the two deals A-6-8-9 is better for Win %s |
Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Friday 1:23 PM
Pretty much an echo to Inushtuk1 post of this day. Will add,pegging offensively, don't like the lead of the 8 from this hand as it puts too much space between the remaining cards of 1-6-9. If dealer has mid cards, holding 6-8-9 intact as non-dealer will result in more pegs. Leading a small card (A or deuce) from 3 mid-cards is one of several reasons that I consistently out-peg Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof as non-dealer. If I were pegging defensively, would lead the 8 and utilize the Ace as an escape card. Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. But if the lone small card were a 3 or a 4, then the 8 on offense. Does that just about sum it up? Inushtuk1 says: And supposing you were to hold A-4-6-8. Would you lead the 8 on offense to save the five card trap, or would you lead the 4 to the Ace? Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: A resounding yes to your first. With the A-4-6-8 as non-dealer would lead the Ace, keeping 4-6 intact. An Ace lead often draws a X-point response to which I score 15-2 with the four forcing the 5 off the play, count then usually advances to 25, and I score the 31-2 with the play of the six. Four unanswered pegs is often hjow this starts out for the non-dealer. Ras2829 says: The A-4-6 with any other card is an excellent hand to retain when looking at only two points among the six cards. Inushtuk1 says: Ah yes. The A lead from A-4-6-8 on *offense* and the 4 lead perhaps on defense. Similar to the great A-4-5-6 hand for non-dealer. Inushtuk1 says: thanks. Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1: And the Ace lead from A-4-6-? or from A-4-5-6 works most anytime that dealer is playing a five with X-pointers or all X- pointers. That's a high percentage; so many peg points can be scored through this simple trap play. Ras2829 says: Why do you use term "most"? Once in a great while you encounter a real cagey player who drops the 5 on the Ace lead. That spoils the trap! Inushtuk1 says: Yes i know. That’s why sometimes I am tempted to lead the 4 on offense. |