September 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
40*-50  ?
62%
31%
3%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 166

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james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:09 AM
A two horse race I think:
3+2=5 with 7-9-10-J (A-4),
4+?=4+ with A-4-10-J (7-9).

I'll start with a guaranteed five.
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dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:12 AM
Guessing what my opponent might throw me here I better start with five and make one or two hands work here. dec
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JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:28 AM
When an opponent has a ten-hole lead, there might be some temptation to "reign them in" defensively.

But I have this aversion to Toss 7-9 on EITHER side of the board, and in fact I have dubbed this discard "The Curse" a long time ago!

Sure, it can become Twenty-Four Points, and if you tempt fate enough times, you'll find this out, most likely when you see your smiling Opponent putting the distance of two fists between her/his pegs.

Meanwhile, we do (or should) know that ANY TWO CARDS can always, with the right kind of help-plus-luck, turn into at least Fourteen Points -- a kind of Maximum-Minimum Crib Value.

But this reminds us why Toss A-4 is SO MUCH WORSE than Toss 2-3: yes, while Toss A-4 does indeed 'add up' to Five, almost sadly it can only produce that Fourteen Points of "minimum-ness" in a Crib.

Still, I like to think that as the Dealer at Hole 44, we are only a few points shy of being at that critical "par" Hole 44, and so why not approach this with an Offensive Posture, and thus think optimistically?

And so it's Toss A-4 into Our Box today. We disagreed with the computer pitching Toss 6-7 yesterday, and we may find that it prefers to Toss 7-9 today, but this battle between humans and computers is ongoing; and so if we cannot always succeed, let us continue to fail in good spirits!
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Jazzselke
1102 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:55 AM
79 to one's own crib is very often a big disappointment. 68 is better because of the help of an ace.No reason to give up a point to make that throw.
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Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:23 AM
Seems that I am in agreement with others this morning.
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glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:09 AM
We are short of 2nd street position so I’ll take pegs offered.
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Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 6:14 AM
I will also toss myself A4. I am not to crazy about 7-9 in my crib because it rarely gets any help
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wasa
1015 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Monday 7:28 AM
Keeping the run and the guaranteed 5 points. Nice cut.
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horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:58 AM
Offense to the cut
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Inushtuk1
704 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 1:59 PM
I went this way remembering what JQT said about “The Curse”. On defense perhaps I’d keep it the other way for the defensive “Magic Eleven.”

I think it’s more important to play defense now, than try and reach the next positional hole of 59/60, after that cut.
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Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

Monday 2:16 PM
7-9-10-J (A-4) or A-4-10-J (7-9)?:

7-9-10-J: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 8¼pts

A-4-10-J: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts

Potential:

7-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7/8ps with 5555, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

I think A-4-10-J will peg slightly better.

Position:

We're 4pts short of position and Pone is 10pts ahead. I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

A-4-10-J has the same starting value, has nearly as many cuts for improvement but more cuts for a good hand, 7-10pts. So I'll throw the gapper 7-9.
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HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 2:36 PM
At 40*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 %
7-9-10-J__5.30+2.93+5.31=13.54____5.0____20.2
A-4-10-J__6.70+2.50+4.12=13.32____5.6____20.8

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
7-9-10-J______16.6____52.0
A-4-10-J______16.3____51.0

7-9-10-J is better for expected averages by 0.22pt but A-4-10-J is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. Both of these take account of the board position and as we are approaching 2nd street positional hole I'll decide on these. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 2:38 PM
My vote.
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