September 10, 2018
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31% | |||||
3% | |||||
1% | |||||
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Total votes: 166 |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 3:09 AM
A two horse race I think:
3+2=5 with 7-9-10-J (A-4), 4+?=4+ with A-4-10-J (7-9). I'll start with a guaranteed five. |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 3:12 AM
Guessing what my opponent might throw me here I better start with five and make one or two hands work here. dec |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Monday 3:28 AM
When an opponent has a ten-hole lead, there might be some temptation to "reign them in" defensively.
But I have this aversion to Toss 7-9 on EITHER side of the board, and in fact I have dubbed this discard "The Curse" a long time ago! Sure, it can become Twenty-Four Points, and if you tempt fate enough times, you'll find this out, most likely when you see your smiling Opponent putting the distance of two fists between her/his pegs. Meanwhile, we do (or should) know that ANY TWO CARDS can always, with the right kind of help-plus-luck, turn into at least Fourteen Points -- a kind of Maximum-Minimum Crib Value. But this reminds us why Toss A-4 is SO MUCH WORSE than Toss 2-3: yes, while Toss A-4 does indeed 'add up' to Five, almost sadly it can only produce that Fourteen Points of "minimum-ness" in a Crib. Still, I like to think that as the Dealer at Hole 44, we are only a few points shy of being at that critical "par" Hole 44, and so why not approach this with an Offensive Posture, and thus think optimistically? And so it's Toss A-4 into Our Box today. We disagreed with the computer pitching Toss 6-7 yesterday, and we may find that it prefers to Toss 7-9 today, but this battle between humans and computers is ongoing; and so if we cannot always succeed, let us continue to fail in good spirits! JQT says: Should read "...as the Dealer at Hole 40..." Also, in spite of having a much lower possible Maximum Crib Total, Toss A-4 does of course indeed have a higher actual Crib Value than Toss 7-9; in fact, it's nearly a point-and-a-half higher. |
Jazzselke 2569 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Monday 3:55 AM
79 to one's own crib is very often a big disappointment. 68 is better because of the help of an ace.No reason to give up a point to make that throw. |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Monday 4:23 AM
Seems that I am in agreement with others this morning. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Monday 5:09 AM
We are short of 2nd street position so I’ll take pegs offered. |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 6:14 AM
I will also toss myself A4. I am not to crazy about 7-9 in my crib because it rarely gets any help |
wasa 2991 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Monday 7:28 AM
Keeping the run and the guaranteed 5 points. Nice cut. |
horus93 1272 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Monday 8:58 AM
Offense to the cut |
Inushtuk1 1464 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Monday 1:59 PM
I went this way remembering what JQT said about “The Curse”. On defense perhaps I’d keep it the other way for the defensive “Magic Eleven.”
I think it’s more important to play defense now, than try and reach the next positional hole of 59/60, after that cut. Inushtuk1 says: Congrats to our CHOD friend Brian Baer. He finished fifth in the Daniel Webster consy yesterday. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 2:16 PM
7-9-10-J (A-4) or A-4-10-J (7-9)?:
7-9-10-J: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 8¼pts A-4-10-J: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 8¼pts Potential: 7-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7/8ps with 5555, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. A-4-10-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 999 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. Pegging: I think A-4-10-J will peg slightly better. Position: We're 4pts short of position and Pone is 10pts ahead. I'll play Offense to try to catch up. Summary: A-4-10-J has the same starting value, has nearly as many cuts for improvement but more cuts for a good hand, 7-10pts. So I'll throw the gapper 7-9. |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 2:36 PM
At 40*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 % 7-9-10-J__5.30+2.93+5.31=13.54____5.0____20.2 A-4-10-J__6.70+2.50+4.12=13.32____5.6____20.8 Offense_______L5 %____L6 % 7-9-10-J______16.6____52.0 A-4-10-J______16.3____51.0 7-9-10-J is better for expected averages by 0.22pt but A-4-10-J is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s. Both of these take account of the board position and as we are approaching 2nd street positional hole I'll decide on these. So I'll select 7-9 to discard. After the J cut I'll play Offense to the lead. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 2:38 PM
My vote. |