September 11, 2018
*** This hand was suggested by james500
|Total votes: 176|
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Joined: April 2008
Tuesday 3:26 AM
Double run keep cut for 16 17 or 20. After cut probably could use some pegs here. dec
Joined: January 2018
Tuesday 3:36 AM
People voting pretty darn early. I'm guessing the consternation here will be between tossing A,7 or A,4. Looking forward to the comments.
Joined: June 2013
Tuesday 4:05 AM
A few options to discuss here: A-7 and A-4 certainly, and maybe 5-5 and A-5 also?
Seems I'm the first to choose 6+2=8.
Only the cut of an Ace or 9 won't help this hand (Ace helps the crib though).
Wider spread of cards than the double run should make it easier to escape during the pegging (Pone is not too far from reaching 95 target).
Joined: March 2016
Tuesday 4:05 AM
Double run for me.
Joined: October 2008
Tuesday 4:34 AM
Trailing Pone by a Dozen Points, we may in fact however have a slight Positional Advantage as the Dealer at Hole 72.
Retaining the powerful Double RUN looks like it may be the best way to maintain this very slight advantage, but we have to govern Pone's movement carefully.
Throwing the PAIR of 5 Cards seems too speculative, for while it averages nearly Nine Points in our Crib, it does so by wildly fluctuating amounts.
Joined: April 2011
Tuesday 4:59 AM
A cut of a 3-4-5 still gets us 12-12-14 points plus we get the A-4 in the crib and more flexibility in the pegging.
Joined: May 2016
Tuesday 5:21 AM
With pone at 84 and me 23 away from next CPZ and 9 points guaranteed with only the 9 not helping, I want what glmccluustey wants. Pegging flexibility. Under different relative positions, I might go the other way. But today, am in the minority but feel vindication coming on.
Joined: November 2014
Tuesday 6:48 AM
Thought about the 5-5 in crib but knowing my luck would be stuck with 2 point hand, 2 point crib. Double run appears to be the obvious choice here.
Joined: March 2008
Tuesday 7:03 AM
Never break a double run, padawan
Joined: March 2009
Tuesday 7:03 AM
See the value in holding 3577, but in this case I will hold 3455; too much potential to give up IMO.
Joined: July 2016
Tuesday 7:54 AM
This toss/keep has the most crib and hand potential. I’m not too concerned about the pegging flexibility. I may need to peg offensively if I miss my cut
As it is I have only 13 known points, with little hope in my crib. I’ll peg offensively to grab the first two points. I must jump on that X-card lead for the (15-2). And then hope s/he does not pair it. Now what do I do if my 5 is paired? I’ve reached my target of 86. Do I trip it and risk quads? Or play into a run with my 3? I’ll trip ‘the light fantastic’. The odds are in my favor. Gulp.
Joined: August 2018
Tuesday 9:47 AM
I can see the logic of other tosses, but I don't think I get enough improvement from the crib or pegging to justify breaking up the double run.
Joined: November 2008
Tuesday 9:51 AM
As dealer there are a very small number of discard combinations worth sacrifice of points in hand. The A-4 is not on that short list. If you would like to learn more about sacrifice limits as dealer and to which discard choices they apply, email firstname.lastname@example.org any old time. My opponent here needs to deal form 4th street CPZ 95-99. That's a stretch needing 11. So will choose a defense strategy and play off the lead. Think one would also be in bounds to choose optimal. As dealer have a guaranteed peg, 12 points in hand and ? in crib. We know of 13 points for sure which would put us at hole 85. So I will proceed with caution. As JQT points out, given the averages, th0ough 12 points down, dealer here has a slight positional advantage. Will protect that? Will that A-7 reach its average of 4.051 with that Queen on the deck?
Joined: October 2007
Tuesday 1:56 PM
The double-run, or 5-5 to crib or perhaps A-4?:
3-4-5-5: 8pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.85) = 11¾pts
A-3-4-7: 2pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 10¾pts
3-5-5-7: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts
3-4-5-5: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.
A-3-4-7: Improves with AAA, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 32/46 = 78.3% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts.
3-5-5-7: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 10/12pts with 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.
Of the 3 hands I think A-3-4-7 will peg best with lower cards and a magic eleven.
We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.
3-4-5-5 starts with 1/1½pts more than the other two, has most cuts for improvement and the best maximum. It may not peg as well as A-3-4-7 but I'll throw A-7.
Joined: February 2008
Tuesday 3:45 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
Defense________L3 %____L4 %
3-4-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.82pt and is very much better for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select A-7 to discard.
After the Q cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.