September 12, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
9-14*  ?
74%
7%
7%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 166

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james500
1890 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:10 AM
*Six points in hand.
*Weak discard to opponent, weakened further by the negative delta of a 5 and 9 being out of circulation.
*Can play the hand as an 11 or 16:

A(1)-10/J(11)-5(16)-5(21/2)-9(30)-go-A(31/2).
A(1)-Q/K(11)-9(20)-X(30)-A(31/2).
A(1)-5(6)-9(15/2)-X(25)-5(30)-go-A(31/2).
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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:14 AM
Looking at these positions and I kept six with a fairly wide discard , dont like the nine lead now after cut instead lead one of the aces.dec
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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:28 AM
I kept A-A-5-9 and tossed 6-10 to dealer. Couldn't see any other way to go.
Reply
Gougie00
3630 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 4:42 AM
Keep the sure 6. Lead the 9, play the 5 and parlay the AA. Lousy cut.

I hope anyone living in NC has headed north for a few days.
Reply
zeke76
31 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 4:47 AM
Six points in the hand and a safe enough discard.
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Jazzselke
1057 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:38 AM
Should be 100%.Lead the 9, if opponent has a 5 and face-cards will get 31 for 4.
Reply
wasa
950 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 7:27 AM
Agree with above. No other choice for me.
Reply
Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 7:35 AM
I canít see any other way. That 7 cut is of no use to me; and it leaves me a tad short. But I was obviously gameís starting Dealer, and my opponent did better than average. Iíd lead the 9 on offense and try to parlay the A-A. But since it is so early Iíll stay on defense and lead my Ad. Good %age play for 2 or 4 points as James mentioned above. Even if I just peg 2 Holes Iíll be dealing in my First Street CPZ. No need for the aggressive 9 lead just yet.
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:16 PM
As per the consensus A-A-5-9 (6-10) holds the most, has a good defensive discard and should peg well with a magic eleven including two Aces.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:21 PM
At 9-14* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_____________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-A-5-9___8.17+(-2.28)+(-4.02)= 1.87____23.2____35.4
A-5-6-9___6.78+(-3.09)+(-4.21)=(-0.52)___20.0____31.3

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-A-5-9_______31.8____40.6
A-5-6-9_______33.6____45.4

A-A-5-9 is better for expected averrage by 2.39pts and is very much better for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 6-10 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead an A and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
A_________________(-1.79)
9_________________(-2.50)
5_________________(-2.94)
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 1:26 PM
Not many points available. Keep the A-A for pegging or escape. T-6 to blank crib.

Bit of a rush. sorry for bad syntax.
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stevenomes
90 votes

Joined: May 2018

   
Wednesday 1:44 PM
I dont see much potential for this hand no matter what i do. better off taking the 6 pts and dump the 6-10 to crib and try to cut losses. no sense in getting a few more pts in hand at risk of high crib.
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Ras2829
3129 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 5:51 PM
Allowed this puzzle to pass as moderator. Thought submitter might be thinking that A-5-6-9 would be the hand to choose. It seemed that 6-10 discard was such a low scoring discard and A-A-5-9 offers fine pegging potential often closing the count for 31-4. Given those factors serious consideration of holding four points instead of six with A-A-5-9 ought to be dismissed. And the 3-card 11 works very nicely for the non-dealer too. Either the "eleven from heaven" or the "sweet sixteen" can result in 31-4 with the back-to-back Aces with just a little help from the dealer. Will choose defense with dealer at hole 14. If had been at hole 17,would have chosen an optimal strategy.
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