September 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
97*-106  ?
41%
28%
26%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156

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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:38 AM
I would love to use the aces for defense but that ace they might have for two might get them even closer or out. Maybe 2-3 is in my future in crib. dec
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JQT
2408 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 4:23 AM
As nice as it might be to peg with those Two Aces, I cannot see placing a PAIR of ugly 9 Cards into our Crib.

And if this were simply a situation in which the Total Hand plus Crib with the MOST could secure the win, then I'd probably send the PAIR of Aces into the box.

But from the POSITION given, we most likely require a more nuanced approach, which is often custom-made for a FLUSH.

The fact is, until we see the Cut, there are too many unknowns here: if we get a good Cut, we should probably hedge during the pegging; if not, we may need to 'snag' a few points.

And I think that a FLUSH gives us the flexibility we may need here to both react to the Cut, and to Pone's cards as well.

Of course, after seeing that 4 Card Cut, I only wish I had sent BOTH of those Aces packing, but who knew? We can still hope for a reasonable Crib, but I'm looking to peg some probably much-needed holes here.
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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:29 AM
Nice Puzzle james500. We are not going to get where we need to be on the board with this hand. Keep 6 in the hand and 2 in the crib to start?

I always say it pays to Flush. Not 100% sure today.
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james500
1890 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 4:53 AM
A-A to my crib might do well, but 6-8-9-9 is too bunched up for my liking. Pone is reasonably close, and a few extra pegs could be costly.

A-A-6-8 might peg well, but 9-9 to my crib, (especially with that 6 and 8 out of circulation), may not do well. Pone won't add a Jack to help form a run upwards either.

The flush starts with the greatest hand score of the three options, and has a wide spread of cards for pegging "manoeuvrability".I really don't like the discard though; There'll be negative delta a'plenty when splitting two pairs and putting half of each in the crib, let alone that there's a helpful 6 and 8 that I know cannot be cut, or that 9+1=10 and Pone won't give me a 5.

I'll simply keep the points, and the crib will have to take care of itself. Ace response to an X lead, from my A-9-6 sixteen:
X(10)-A(11)-5(16)-9(25)-go-6(31/2).
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wasa
950 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 5:16 AM
I need 24 to go out, and if I don't do it now, I think I'll lose. Full offence, charge ahead. Hopefully opponent tossed face cards to my crib as the A-A works great with that 4 cut. 6 in the hand, guessing 6-8 in the crib (maybe I was given a T-K?) plus my minimum 1 point for pegging means I peg aggressively. Thinking about leading the 8.
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glmccuskey
2765 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 5:26 AM
When I’m in doubt, like I am here, I flush.
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zeke76
31 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Thursday 5:54 AM
Like glmccuskey, I also was in doubt, so I flushed. We just have to get close and then go out next hand. I tend to think with careful pegging we can get another hand where we score first.

It's a hard puzzle today.
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Jazzselke
1057 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 7:22 AM
Great puzzle, 3 ways to hold a combined 8 points. Holding the flush has best potential for the hand, but A9 to the crib is dismal. It also breaks up 2 different pairs. I think one of the pairs needs to go to the crib, so I will choose the aces; too much negative felt a throwing the nines as pointed out by James.
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 7:27 AM
If I had tossed A-A or 9-9 into the crib, I would have a 6 point hand and a 2 point crib. Thanks to the starter card and the flush in my hand, I have an 8 point hand and a 2 point crib. Hindsight is 20-20.

Keeping the flush gives me a little more flexibility during play. 9-9-8-6 is too bunched up and gives the pone more opportunity to peg. The Ace gives us an escape card to limit his pegging. With the pone needing only 15 points and first count every point on his side of the board is crucial. Since the 4 cut did not help us, we should be aware that it probably helped him.
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Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 8:37 AM
I just can’t justify tossing (A-9). And flushes don’t always peg better defensively as much as you think. What will you do with that flush on a 6-8 lead? Play your escape card, the Ace right? They’ll probably score a (15-2) right there. I’m just not convinced this flush is a safer keep than the 6-8-9-9.
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joekayak
507 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 9:26 AM
I'll speak for the minority. I'll keep 6 points in hand, 2 in the crib, and a sweet 16 and hope to stack the Aces in the pegging. 8-6-A-A should peg better offensively than 9-9-8-6- or the flush. Although the flush does have a sweet sixteen also.
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 1:54 PM
The flush with A-9 for 8pts or 6-8-9-9 (A-A) for 6 + 2pts:

AS-6-8-9: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 11½pts

6-8-9-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 11¼pts

Potential:

AS-6-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/14pts with AA, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 14 cuts.

6-8-9-9: Improves with AA, 666, 7777, 888, 99 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 12/16pts with 666, 7777, 99 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

The flush should peg slightly better and be harder to read.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole but if Pone scores too well they could be within pegging distance next deal. So I'll play Defense.

Summary:

AS-6-8-9 has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand although a lower maximum. It also should peg well. I'll throw AD-9.
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HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 1:56 PM
At 97*-106 playing Defense for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
6-8-9-9____8.26+(-2.07)+5.24=11.43____5.9_____44.6
AS-6-8-9__10.15+(-2.09)+3.06=11.12____1.5_____45.8

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
6-8-9-9_______14.4____49.8
AS-6-8-9______13.7____50.7

6-8-9-9 is 0.31pt better for expected averages and is better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the critical board position.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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