October 7, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
45*-57  ?
62%
28%
4%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 141

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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:12 AM
The twenty cut would be nice but I will try playing defense with this keep and load up in the crib. dec
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Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:47 AM
Both dec and expected averages say It Pays to Flush!
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james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:16 AM
A choice between 2-7 and 4-5d for me, although I can see both 2-4 and 5-5 getting votes today too.

Using Ras' sacrifice limits, 4-5 is worth a two point reduction in hand value, so I'll keep the flush rather than the double run.
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JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 5:11 AM
I am tempted to Toss 5-5, but the FLUSH seems to solve this puzzle rather nicely. What I won't do is retain the Double RUN!
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Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Sunday 7:07 AM
Im down by 12 points with marginal position. Ill take that shot at a 20 pointer. Only a 9 does not improve this hand.

LOL. The starter is a 9. And the 9 of *clubs* to add insult to injury. With only 9 known points I could be well short of my next target of 60. So Im on offense. Taking the (15-2) if offered, and tripping that 5. Those 8 peg points would put me at 53 before showing my hand. So now *if* I were fortunate enough to get those 8 pegs, I would switch to defense with my remaining two cards.
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glmccuskey
2796 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 7:36 AM
When in doubt, I flush. We need some peg but be careful. We dont want our opponent getting to hole 71.
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horus93
227 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 8:17 AM
At +1/-3 I aimed for best expected average. I figured a 6 point "working flush" w/ 2-3 and 5 plus 4-5 in the crib would average better than an 8 point double run + a mediocre crib toss.

Hopefully we caught a couple of ten cards in the crib, holding two fives it's more likely than normal. With only 10 points known I'd play cautious offense.
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zeke76
59 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Sunday 12:28 PM
What Inushtuk said.
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Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 1:41 PM
I'll examine 3-4-5-5 (2-7), 2-3-5C-7 (4-5), 2-3-4-7 (5-5) and 2-3-4-5D (5-7):

3-4-5-5: 8pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 12pts

2-3-5C-7: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.48) = 12pts

2-3-4-7: 3pts + 8pts (Schell: 8.79) = 11pts

2-3-4-5D: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 10pts

Potential:

3-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 34 cuts.

2-3-5C-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/11/12pts with AAAA, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-3-4-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 8888 = 23 cuts.

2-3-4-5D: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well playing Offense. Playing Defense I think the flush will peg best.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole and Pone is 3pts short of where they need to be. So I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

2-3-4-5 has good potential but the lowest starting value so I think we can discount this. Similarly 2-3-4-7 has guaranteed improvement but a low maximum and second lowest starting value. So that leaves the double-run or the flush? The flush has the highest starting value by pt over the double-run and also has 0.20pt for the remaining clubs. Despite the fact that the flush will peg better Defensively the double-run has 34 cuts for 12-20pts so I'll throw the 2-7.
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HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 2:23 PM
At 45*-57 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-3-5C-7__10.11+(-2.17)+6.40=14.34____28.0____37.1
3-4-5-5___12.48+(-2.26)+3.64=13.86____26.9____38.9
2-3-4-7____6.06+(-2.13)+8.73=13.06____23.7____32.9
2-3-4-5D___8.52+(-2.04)+6.01=12.49____22.1____32.4

Defense_______L5 %____L6 %
2-3-5C-7______42.7____47.1
3-4-5-5_______37.9____44.1
2-3-4-7_______43.4____52.1
2-3-4-5D______42.8____52.8

2-3-5C-7 is best for expected averages by 0.48pt but 3-4-5-5 is slightly best for Win %s and significantly lowest for Loss %s. If it were later in the game I may decide on the Win/Loss %s but because of the size of the expected average difference at 0.48pt and that we are still on second street I'll decide on the expected averages and select 4-5D to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Optimally to the lead.
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Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 7:05 PM
Admittedly it is hard to get beyond holding that double run with a potential of 20 points. Choosing a defense strategy at hole 45 with opponent needing 12 to reach 3rd street CVPZ 69-73. After seeing the starter card will shift to optimal. Like the flush here as it allows me to toss the 4-5 to own crib. That 4-5 connects so nicely with all those favored 6-X discards. Many folks like to toss the 7-8 to own crib. The 4-5 has a higher average than does 7-8 to own crib and 7-8 scores three times as many cribs of two points. Besides that greater strength on the lower end of the scoring, the 4-5 scores as many cribs of 8 or more points as does the 7-8. Try it -you'll like it!
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