October 8, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
65-65*  ?
92%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 168
dec
6355 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:06 AM
16 cuts makes me go for it. King lead. dec
Guest says: congrats Peter Olsen GR Club #314 for win in NH Tourney main yesterday. congrats Dan Selke on 2nd. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Monday 3:27 AM
Yes, 16 cuts improves this hand. Also expected averages point out the reason for tossing 2-2 over the board.

Rosemarie44 says: Forgot, of course if one of the clubs comes up (11 of them out there) we get another point. The start card 9c gives us one.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:14 AM
No reason to be dealing short next hand. A few points farther down would consider 2K.
Guest says: Congrats on being runner up in NH yesterday! S:)
Inushtuk1 says: Hey way to go Dan. Sorry I missed you. Next time.
Jazzselke says: Thanks to both!
james500
3920 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 5:03 AM
Perhaps I should've made Dealer's position closer to 70. J-Q and K-2 aren't as appealing with them at 65.
Inushtuk1 says: HI James. Respectfully, I don’t think bringing Dealer closer to 70 would have made any difference to most people. Changing the pair to a pair of 7’s *would* have, because of Dealer’s penchant for tossing two mid-cards to the crib. Best wishes, Inush.
glmccuskey
4098 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:22 AM
Not much choice in this position James. I’ll lead the king a peg it defensively.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:29 AM
I think our own position calls for risking Toss 2-2 today, even though it could quite easily produce a Fourteen- or Sixteen-Point Crib for our Opponent.

And we do have at least a Dozen Cuts that will substantially boost our hand, which is already worth a healthy Eight Points.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 5:48 AM
Awkward hand at this position but I didn't see another way.

Even if the score was something like 65-75* I'd probably do the same.

At 106-101* I'd have to be more defensive but here I don't want to spoil my hand even if I would like to be able to be more cautious.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi horus93. Good puzzles both. But I’d just keep the double run in either case; and *especially* the Third Street example.
zeke76
1393 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Monday 6:16 AM
Columbus went with Isabella and Ferdinand, so I'm keeping the monarchs.
Guest says: Qolumbus went to jail also
zeke76 says: Yeah. Figuring out the clockwise wind scheme in the North Atlantic was a great achievement, but the rest of his life is pretty ugly.
Gougie00
5727 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 6:48 AM
I'll keep the sure points
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:30 AM
RAS often refers to this hand (any double run of X-pointers as "a suicide hand in the making"). It is indeed very seldom that a hand with a potential of 17 points ought to be trimmed downward to a mere three. Have seen a player or two over they years who could do that. You just toss the two cards not part of the double run, even those high scoring 7-8,7-7 combinations if present. at high-scoring 7-8 when present. One in a while you get a reprieve with a X-point double run such as 2-3-10-J-J-Q which allows non-dealer to retain 2-3-J-J and discard the low-scoring 10-Q. With a known 9 points will lead from the pair.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. We’re you being specific with that 2-3-10-J-J-Q example. By that I mean, if the hand were 2-3-J-Q-K-K, should non-dealer still retain 2-3-K-K and discard the not so low-scoring(J-Q)?
Ras2829 says: HiInushtuk1: Yes, the 2-3-J-J-Q was almost specific although would work the same way with 2-3-J-J-Q-K. In those two cases, hold 2-3-J-J instead of the double run. Does not work with the other X-point double runs. If discard were to be 10-J or J-Q, play the double run and pitch the 2-3 except in end-game scenarios where a large or potentially large hand score is needed for win.
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you Ras for clearing that up.
Inushtuk1
1484 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 8:55 AM
It has to be this way. Had the pair been 7’s, now that would have given me pause.

There’s that 9 of clubs again, same as yesterday. Leading a K. However, dumping the lone J right off the bat, or breaking up the run with the Q lead are good defensive leads as well; as they allow the flush fake for what it’s worth. Maybe Pone plays out, and our K’s score back-to-back for three in the second play series.
Coeurdelion
5592 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 1:38 PM
I don't think its going to be worth sacrificing 4/5pts in hand even if its a net 2/3pts:

J-Q-K-K: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = +1½pts

2-J-Q-K: 3pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.45) = -1½pts

2-2-K-K: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = -1¾pts

Potential:

J-Q-K-K: Improves with 5555 + 12xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 15/16pts with 5555, JJJ, QQQ, KK = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-J-Q-K: Improves with 22, 3333, 5555 + 12xXs = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/9pts with 3333, 5555, JJJ, QQQ, KK = 16 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-2-K-K: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, KK = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/12pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think all of these will peg well.

Position:

We only need 5pts to reach third street positional hole of 70pts so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

J-Q-K-K has a big difference in starting value of 2¾/3pts and although it has less cuts for improvement than it has a better maximum of 16pts with 10 cuts achieving this. So I'll throw the 2-2 and risk it.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:12 PM
At 65-65* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib____Total___W4 %___W5 %
J-Q-K-K___10.46+(-3.24)+(-6.29)= 0.93___36.4___52.2
2-J-Q-K*___5.33+(-3.24)+(-4.15)=(-2.06)__18.7___43.3
2-2-K-K____5.74+(-2.61)+(-5.35)=(-2.22)__18.8___41.0

Defense______L4 %___L5 %
J-Q-K-K______32.7___30.8
2-J-Q-K*_____23.3___38.5
2-2-K-K______27.4___41.6

* unsuited 2-K

J-Q-K-K is best for expected averages by 2.99pts and is hugely better for Win %s and it is only slightly worse over the two deals for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-2 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a K and play Safe:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
K___________________(-3.02)
Q___________________(-3.05)
J___________________(-3.06)