October 9, 2018
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Total votes: 158 |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Tuesday 3:15 AM
Ras went over this yesterday but for me, dealer will NOT get my 3-2 even this early. Guest says: Can't make myself put 5 in the crib almost under any circumstances. |
JQT 4137 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Tuesday 3:36 AM
Least likely card to cut here would be a Queen: D'oh!
But it shall still occur about 5% of the time. JQT says: ...or to be more precise, 2 DIV 46 equals 0.043 or 4.3% JQT says: This doubles our hand from Six to Twelve, but gives the Dealer at least Three: so far, not a bad trade-off. |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Tuesday 3:55 AM
I believe as pone first hand, offense is in order. Originally I chose to toss 2-3 to dealer and as dec mentions, Ras explained his thoughts about double run with face cards.
After reading his comments, I am choosing to go with expected averages and stay with my original decision. Ras and Hal will post later! Nice one acis1. |
dec 6328 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Tuesday 4:05 AM
The Queen is excellent, how many face cards left in deck? sixteen faces and four fives. Our grass roots lifemaster player would say a gift in the crib during the game might go both ways. So 2-3 goes look worry and lead a Quuen of hearts. Thank you for the pre intro Rose. dec dec says: 12 faces and 4 fives. dec Rosemarie44 says: Oh, dec, you're usually the first one posting and I didn't pick up that joekayak is the first commenter! Or you could say I was intuitive and knew just what you were going to pick and comment. |
glmccuskey 4076 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Tuesday 4:05 AM
A 16-17 point hand could give me back the advantage in this game. |
james500 3896 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Tuesday 4:41 AM
Nice cut for me and Dealer's crib.
Queen of Hearts lead. |
Jazzselke 2569 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Tuesday 5:05 AM
Can't break up your good hands, especially a potential 16 or 17 as first non-dealer. I've been known to say: "they don't always match". Guest says: I do |
zeke76 1368 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Tuesday 5:16 AM
Unsure here based on Ras's comments yesterday. I may be out thinking myself. |
wasa 2991 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Tuesday 5:50 AM
First deal pone it's full offence for me. Did consider tossing T-J briefly but hopefully opponent tossed something like 7-9 so only a 2 point crib. |
bbaer1 3665 votes Joined: February 2011 |
    Tuesday 6:20 AM
With Gary and Dan on position, shooting for hole 17 here. Only this hold gives me a chance, 12 max with 23QQ. Plenty of board left and a 16 holeshot would do me wonders. |
Inushtuk1 1465 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Tuesday 6:39 AM
What Ras said yesterday. If you have to toss (10-J) or (J-Q), you might as well toss the (2-3). But on 4th Street I’d toss (10-J). Lead a Q. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Tuesday 6:59 AM
2-3 is clearly not the best discard for the pone in this situation, but with it being the first hand I have to play offense and keep the points.
The Queen starter card makes my decision much easier to digest. Lead with a Queen |
Ras2829 5126 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Tuesday 8:55 AM
Opening hand of game playing an offense strategy as non-dealer, keep this double run, and discard the 2-3. Had the hand been 2-3-10-J-J-Q or 2-3-J-J-Q-K, hold 2-3-J-J. Combined values will favor this approach. Keep in mind the value of many ten point discards is quite low since dealer is unable to put a five in the crib very often. Those fives spots work with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other fives, 6-7, and all of those X-pointers. Want to reiterate a point made yesterday. Some X-point combinations have a high enough average to dealer crib that they should not be made from a hand such as this. Those are the 10-J and J-Q. Will lead a Queen tempting dealer to pair since one on the deck and the 10-J are mathematically more likely to peg in the next sequence. Just could pick up a 9 spot for 3-card run. Ras2829 says: BTW after deleting a few puzzles as moderator, there are openings in October. If you don't like waiting a year to see the results of your puzzle, submit one now and it just might show October 15 or 18 might. You can reduce that year's wait to a week. Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. Now why is the 10-J more mathematically likely to peg in the next sequence than my J-Q. Does it have something to do with Dealer’s bias to toss a J to the crib? I’m sure there’s a perfectly logical and simple explanation, but my brain is not getting it this morning. Inushtuk1 says: The reason I’m ‘nit-picking’ about this is I seem to recall from the old videos, that the J-Q was preferable over the 10-J as the two remaining X-pointers to keep, unless the opponent was showing mid-cards. But perhaps that was only as Dealer. I don’t recall. Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: You're correct that the J-Q is the best pegging combination of X-cards of sequence. In this case, though knowing of the presence of three ?Queens and a Jack, the 10-J has the better chance to peg since opponent is not likely to be holding cards either side of J-Q and more likely to be holding cards of a lower rank such as 8-9. The deck of cards is a great leveler. Inushtuk1 says: Thanks again Ras. |
horus93 1273 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Tuesday 9:22 AM
Much easier choice today than yesterday. As first pone with a strong hand we should play on.
2-3 is a dangerous toss but it still only averages about 7 points compared to this hand that averages nearly 11 and has potential for 17. |
Gougie00 5703 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Tuesday 9:34 AM
One sure fire way to cut a middle card is to breakup a double run. I'll keep my sure 8 points. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Tuesday 1:54 PM
10-J-Q-Q or 2-3-Q-Q?:
10-J-Q-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt 2-3-Q-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +¼pt Potential: 10-J-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. 2-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts. Pegging: I think 2-3-Q-Q should peg somewhat better than 10-J-Q-Q. Position: At game start as First Pone I'll be playing Offense and trying to reach 18pts. Summary: 10-J-Q-Q starts with ¼pt more than 2-3-Q-Q and it also has the benefit of the J. It has less cuts for improvement but a much better maximum and 10 cuts achieve 16pts. So I'll risk the 2-3. |
Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Tuesday 2:01 PM
10-J-Q-Q or 2-3-Q-Q?:
10-J-Q-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt 2-3-Q-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +¼pt Potential: 10-J-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt. 2-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts. Pegging: I think 2-3-Q-Q should peg somewhat better than 10-J-Q-Q. Position: At game start as First Pone I'll be playing Offense and trying to reach 18pts. Summary: 10-J-Q-Q starts with ¼pt more than 2-3-Q-Q and it also has the benefit of the J. It has less cuts for improvement but a much better maximum and 10 cuts achieve 16pts. So I'll risk the 2-3. |
HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Tuesday 2:22 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 % 10-J-Q-Q__10.63+1.17+(-7.04)=4.76____31.0____23.7 2-3-Q-Q____8.35+1.30+(-5.31)=4.34____25.5____24.1 Offense______L9%____L10 % 10-J-Q-Q_____44.4___52.5 2-3-Q-Q______37.8___50.3 10-J-Q-Q is better for expected averages by 0.42pt and is significantly better for Win %s. Because of the risk of the 2-3 discard 10-J-Q-Q is very much higher for Loss %s but even so as its at the beginning of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 2-3 to discard. After the Q cut I'll lead QC and play Offense: Lead__________Our Pegging Pts. Q__________________1.16 10_________________1.04 J__________________0.91 |