October 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
0-0*  ?
68%
24%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 158

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joekayak
533 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 3:15 AM
Ras went over this yesterday but for me, dealer will NOT get my 3-2 even this early.
Reply
JQT
2439 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:36 AM
Least likely card to cut here would be a Queen: D'oh!

But it shall still occur about 5% of the time.
Reply
Rosemarie44
982 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:55 AM
I believe as pone first hand, offense is in order. Originally I chose to toss 2-3 to dealer and as dec mentions, Ras explained his thoughts about double run with face cards.

After reading his comments, I am choosing to go with expected averages and stay with my original decision.

Ras and Hal will post later! Nice one acis1.
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dec
4224 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:05 AM
The Queen is excellent, how many face cards left in deck? sixteen faces and four fives. Our grass roots lifemaster player would say a gift in the crib during the game might go both ways. So 2-3 goes look worry and lead a Quuen of hearts. Thank you for the pre intro Rose. dec
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glmccuskey
2796 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 4:05 AM
A 16-17 point hand could give me back the advantage in this game.
Reply
james500
1922 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:41 AM
Nice cut for me and Dealer's crib.
Queen of Hearts lead.
Reply
Jazzselke
1079 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:05 AM
Can't break up your good hands, especially a potential 16 or 17 as first non-dealer. I've been known to say: "they don't always match".
Reply
zeke76
59 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:16 AM
Unsure here based on Ras's comments yesterday. I may be out thinking myself.
Reply
wasa
982 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 5:50 AM
First deal pone it's full offence for me. Did consider tossing T-J briefly but hopefully opponent tossed something like 7-9 so only a 2 point crib.
Reply
bbaer1
2502 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Tuesday 6:20 AM
With Gary and Dan on position, shooting for hole 17 here. Only this hold gives me a chance, 12 max with 23QQ. Plenty of board left and a 16 holeshot would do me wonders.
Reply
Inushtuk1
689 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 6:39 AM
What Ras said yesterday. If you have to toss (10-J) or (J-Q), you might as well toss the (2-3). But on 4th Street I’d toss (10-J). Lead a Q.
Reply
JRCeagle78
544 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 6:59 AM
2-3 is clearly not the best discard for the pone in this situation, but with it being the first hand I have to play offense and keep the points.

The Queen starter card makes my decision much easier to digest. Lead with a Queen
Reply
Ras2829
3154 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 8:55 AM
Opening hand of game playing an offense strategy as non-dealer, keep this double run, and discard the 2-3. Had the hand been 2-3-10-J-J-Q or 2-3-J-J-Q-K, hold 2-3-J-J. Combined values will favor this approach. Keep in mind the value of many ten point discards is quite low since dealer is unable to put a five in the crib very often. Those fives spots work with A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, other fives, 6-7, and all of those X-pointers. Want to reiterate a point made yesterday. Some X-point combinations have a high enough average to dealer crib that they should not be made from a hand such as this. Those are the 10-J and J-Q. Will lead a Queen tempting dealer to pair since one on the deck and the 10-J are mathematically more likely to peg in the next sequence. Just could pick up a 9 spot for 3-card run.
Reply
horus93
227 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 9:22 AM
Much easier choice today than yesterday. As first pone with a strong hand we should play on.

2-3 is a dangerous toss but it still only averages about 7 points compared to this hand that averages nearly 11 and has potential for 17.
Reply
Gougie00
3663 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 9:34 AM
One sure fire way to cut a middle card is to breakup a double run. I'll keep my sure 8 points.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 1:54 PM
10-J-Q-Q or 2-3-Q-Q?:

10-J-Q-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

2-3-Q-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +¼pt

Potential:

10-J-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-Q-Q should peg somewhat better than 10-J-Q-Q.

Position:

At game start as First Pone I'll be playing Offense and trying to reach 18pts.

Summary:

10-J-Q-Q starts with ¼pt more than 2-3-Q-Q and it also has the benefit of the J. It has less cuts for improvement but a much better maximum and 10 cuts achieve 16pts. So I'll risk the 2-3.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3630 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:01 PM
10-J-Q-Q or 2-3-Q-Q?:

10-J-Q-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

2-3-Q-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +¼pt

Potential:

10-J-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-3-Q-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, QQ = 20 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-Q-Q should peg somewhat better than 10-J-Q-Q.

Position:

At game start as First Pone I'll be playing Offense and trying to reach 18pts.

Summary:

10-J-Q-Q starts with ¼pt more than 2-3-Q-Q and it also has the benefit of the J. It has less cuts for improvement but a much better maximum and 10 cuts achieve 16pts. So I'll risk the 2-3.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3388 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:22 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
10-J-Q-Q__10.63+1.17+(-7.04)=4.76____31.0____23.7
2-3-Q-Q____8.35+1.30+(-5.31)=4.34____25.5____24.1

Offense______L9%____L10 %
10-J-Q-Q_____44.4___52.5
2-3-Q-Q______37.8___50.3

10-J-Q-Q is better for expected averages by 0.42pt and is significantly better for Win %s. Because of the risk of the 2-3 discard 10-J-Q-Q is very much higher for Loss %s but even so as its at the beginning of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 2-3 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead QC and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
Q__________________1.16
10_________________1.04
J__________________0.91
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