October 10, 2018
45% | |||||
19% | |||||
10% | |||||
8% | |||||
6% | |||||
3% | |||||
1% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
Total votes: 162 |
glmccuskey 4095 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Wednesday 3:23 AM
It’s to early in the game to throw 5-Q. This still gives me cuts for 14 points. I’ll lead the eight and take pegs as offered. |
dec 6352 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Wednesday 3:27 AM
A-2-4-6-7-8 for good adding cuts. Q-9 made this selection a lil more palatable. Lead the eight agree it might be a play on situation 8-7-6-4 go? dec |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Wednesday 4:29 AM
If you choose to toss 9-Q or 6-Q to opponent, these cards are usually worth only 2 points in their crib.
Going with 9-Q for a hand that has a higher maximum and a slightly higher expected average hand. |
james500 3917 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Wednesday 4:39 AM
Q-9 from me too, although did consider Q-8d. |
Gougie00 5724 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Wednesday 6:05 AM
Q9? I dont have much so I cant justify giving away any points. |
zeke76 1390 votes Joined: August 2018 |
    Wednesday 6:46 AM
Not throwing a 5 or a pair of 8s. I'd throw a 9-6 if what it left me was really good, but it ends the odds of a run and essentially gives up 2 points to the dealer's crib to get 2 more points in the hand. So I'll go 5-6-8-8. Ace cut is helpful. |
Jazzselke 2583 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Wednesday 6:57 AM
Bleak situation right now, hopefully things turn around. Balk their crib and hopefully get a cut. |
Ras2829 5147 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Wednesday 7:05 AM
The numbers for 9-Q are so impressive that it jumps out her as the correct choice. The 9-Q averages 4.120 (1,672) 4/91, scores 2 or less points 42.224% (only 10-K tallies more of those), scores 3-7 44.798%, scores 8-11 11.483%, and reaches 12 or more 1.495%. Lead the 8d and take pegs as offered. |
horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Wednesday 7:53 AM
I really liked this puzzle, here's the minority report:
At 22-28* our relative position is -12/+10. At these positions the player with a positional deficit should generally play and discard offensively when he can hold a good hand, defensively with a bad hand, and optimally with an average hand. Most players went with 6-8-8-9 (5-Q) which does have the potential for a 16 point hand. However only 8 of 46 cuts will yield 10 or more. About a quarter of the cuts leave 8 points, and a solid majority leave you with only 4 points. I don't consider this score hail mary territory and those numbers don't justify tossing 5-Q IMO. I also considered the defensive discard of 9-Q, keeping 5-6-8-8, but over 75% of cuts will leave us with 6 or fewer points in hand, and 60% will leave us with 4 or fewer. This seemed to spoil our hand too much to be justifiable. I see 5-8-8-9 (6-9) as a compromise toss. 6-9 is not usually an extremely dangerous discard and about 60% of cuts will give us 6 or more points, with "only" about 40% leaving us with 4. Despite its not being best for expected average I think it is the best choice here. I'd play off and lead the 8 of clubs. horus93 says: And for completeness' sake, had the cut been a deuce, five, 7, 8, or any ten card I would play more offensively, leading the Q to possibly entice a 5 and saving the 8's to potentially play off of each other should dealer be holding all low cards. horus93 says: *I guess it'd actually take dealer holding a high card + 3 low cards |
horus93 1281 votes Joined: December 2017 |
    Wednesday 7:56 AM
*5-8-8-Q as a compromise toss, not 5-8-8-9 cribbagepogo says: Q 9 a good stopper. |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Wednesday 8:08 AM
Better to keep the 6 Card with the 5 Card as opposed to retaining the Queen, which would "cost" us with Toss 6-9.
I guess I'll lead the Red 8 Card. |
wasa 3013 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Wednesday 8:30 AM
Debated tossing the 6-Q or the 9-Q. Figured the 9-Q was less points to opponent's crib, but I gave up the 8-8-9 combo. I'm OK if a 7 is cut, but if a T was cut I'd be living with small pangs of regret (although the A cut works great with the 6-8-8 so if I tossed 6-Q I'd regret it with this cut... oh woe is me!) :-) |
Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Wednesday 3:37 PM
I'll consider 8-8, 6-9, 5-Q and 9-Q:
5-6-9-Q: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -2¾pts 5-8-8-Q: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts 6-8-8-9: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = -3½pts 5-6-8-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts Potential: 5-6-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999, QQQ = 20 cuts. 5-8-8-Q: Improves with 2222, 555, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8pts with 2222, 555, 7777, 88, QQQ = 16 cuts. 6-8-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 8/16pts with all cuts. 5-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7/14pts with AAAA, 2222, 7777, 88 = 14 cuts. Pegging: I think all these hands will peg similarly. Position: It looks like its third deal and we've lost ground and First Dealer has gained so I'll play Offense for the pegging. Summary: 5-6-9-Q starts with -2¾pts and has a reasonable number of cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 7-9pts. 5-6-8-8 has the most number of cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-14pts and it also has the best starting value by ¾pt over 5-6-9-Q. Although I'll peg Offense I think in this instance the Defensive 9-Q throw may be best. |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Wednesday 4:54 PM
At 22-28* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 % 5-6-8C-9__5.22+1.91+(-3.99)=3.14____11.7____11.2 5-8-8-9___5.13+1.85+(-3.88)=3.10____13.2____12.2 5-6-8-8___5.39+1.41+(-3.88)=2.92____12.3____11.5 5-6-9-Q___6.43+1.54+(-5.97)=2.00____13.4____10.4 5-8-8-Q___5.91+1.28+(-5.72)=1.47____11.4_____9.6 5-6-8-Q___4.70+1.93+(-5.20)=1.43____11.0_____9.6 5-8D-9-Q__4.43+1.52+(-5.04)=0.91____10.1_____9.4 6-8-8-9___6.61+1.43+(-7.64)=0.40____13.8_____8.4 Offense______L7 %____L8 % 5-6-8C-9_____43.1____66.1 5-8-8-9______41.8____64.1 5-6-8-8______42.3____65.1 5-6-9-Q______48.2____68.6 5-8-8-Q______46.8____69.1 5-6-8-Q______43.1____66.1 5-8D-9-Q_____45.4____68.4 6-8-8-9______53.0____72.2 5-6-8C-9 is best for expected averages by 0.04pt over 5-8-8-9 but 5-8-8-9 is slightly best for both Win %s and Loss %s. Although its early in the game the difference in expected averages is very slight and 5-8-8-9 is best for Win/Loss %s so I'll select 6-Q to discard. After the A cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense: Lead____________Our Pegging Pts. 5____________________1.71 8____________________1.71 9____________________1.16 |