October 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
22-28*  ?
45%
19%
10%
8%
6%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 162

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glmccuskey
2846 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 3:23 AM
It’s to early in the game to throw 5-Q. This still gives me cuts for 14 points. I’ll lead the eight and take pegs as offered.
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dec
4284 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:27 AM
A-2-4-6-7-8 for good adding cuts. Q-9 made this selection a lil more palatable. Lead the eight agree it might be a play on situation 8-7-6-4 go? dec
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Rosemarie44
1034 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:29 AM
If you choose to toss 9-Q or 6-Q to opponent, these cards are usually worth only 2 points in their crib.

Going with 9-Q for a hand that has a higher maximum and a slightly higher expected average hand.
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james500
1973 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 4:39 AM
Q-9 from me too, although did consider Q-8d.
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Gougie00
3723 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 6:05 AM
Q9? I dont have much so I cant justify giving away any points.
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zeke76
105 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 6:46 AM
Not throwing a 5 or a pair of 8s. I'd throw a 9-6 if what it left me was really good, but it ends the odds of a run and essentially gives up 2 points to the dealer's crib to get 2 more points in the hand. So I'll go 5-6-8-8. Ace cut is helpful.
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Jazzselke
1122 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:57 AM
Bleak situation right now, hopefully things turn around. Balk their crib and hopefully get a cut.
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Ras2829
3212 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 7:05 AM
The numbers for 9-Q are so impressive that it jumps out her as the correct choice. The 9-Q averages 4.120 (1,672) 4/91, scores 2 or less points 42.224% (only 10-K tallies more of those), scores 3-7 44.798%, scores 8-11 11.483%, and reaches 12 or more 1.495%. Lead the 8d and take pegs as offered.
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horus93
281 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 7:53 AM
I really liked this puzzle, here's the minority report:

At 22-28* our relative position is -12/+10. At these positions the player with a positional deficit should generally play and discard offensively when he can hold a good hand, defensively with a bad hand, and optimally with an average hand.

Most players went with 6-8-8-9 (5-Q) which does have the potential for a 16 point hand. However only 8 of 46 cuts will yield 10 or more. About a quarter of the cuts leave 8 points, and a solid majority leave you with only 4 points. I don't consider this score hail mary territory and those numbers don't justify tossing 5-Q IMO.

I also considered the defensive discard of 9-Q, keeping 5-6-8-8, but over 75% of cuts will leave us with 6 or fewer points in hand, and 60% will leave us with 4 or fewer. This seemed to spoil our hand too much to be justifiable.

I see 5-8-8-9 (6-9) as a compromise toss. 6-9 is not usually an extremely dangerous discard and about 60% of cuts will give us 6 or more points, with "only" about 40% leaving us with 4.

Despite its not being best for expected average I think it is the best choice here. I'd play off and lead the 8 of clubs.
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horus93
281 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 7:56 AM
*5-8-8-Q as a compromise toss, not 5-8-8-9
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JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 8:08 AM
Better to keep the 6 Card with the 5 Card as opposed to retaining the Queen, which would "cost" us with Toss 6-9.

I guess I'll lead the Red 8 Card.
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wasa
1037 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 8:30 AM
Debated tossing the 6-Q or the 9-Q. Figured the 9-Q was less points to opponent's crib, but I gave up the 8-8-9 combo. I'm OK if a 7 is cut, but if a T was cut I'd be living with small pangs of regret (although the A cut works great with the 6-8-8 so if I tossed 6-Q I'd regret it with this cut... oh woe is me!) :-)
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Coeurdelion
3678 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 3:37 PM
I'll consider 8-8, 6-9, 5-Q and 9-Q:

5-6-9-Q: 4pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -2¾pts

5-8-8-Q: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

6-8-8-9: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = -3½pts

5-6-8-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

5-6-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999, QQQ = 20 cuts.

5-8-8-Q: Improves with 2222, 555, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8pts with 2222, 555, 7777, 88, QQQ = 16 cuts.

6-8-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 8/16pts with all cuts.

5-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7/14pts with AAAA, 2222, 7777, 88 = 14 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg similarly.

Position:

It looks like its third deal and we've lost ground and First Dealer has gained so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Summary:

5-6-9-Q starts with -2¾pts and has a reasonable number of cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 7-9pts. 5-6-8-8 has the most number of cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-14pts and it also has the best starting value by ¾pt over 5-6-9-Q. Although I'll peg Offense I think in this instance the Defensive 9-Q throw may be best.
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HalscribCLX
3437 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 4:54 PM
At 22-28* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
5-6-8C-9__5.22+1.91+(-3.99)=3.14____11.7____11.2
5-8-8-9___5.13+1.85+(-3.88)=3.10____13.2____12.2
5-6-8-8___5.39+1.41+(-3.88)=2.92____12.3____11.5
5-6-9-Q___6.43+1.54+(-5.97)=2.00____13.4____10.4
5-8-8-Q___5.91+1.28+(-5.72)=1.47____11.4_____9.6
5-6-8-Q___4.70+1.93+(-5.20)=1.43____11.0_____9.6
5-8D-9-Q__4.43+1.52+(-5.04)=0.91____10.1_____9.4
6-8-8-9___6.61+1.43+(-7.64)=0.40____13.8_____8.4

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
5-6-8C-9_____43.1____66.1
5-8-8-9______41.8____64.1
5-6-8-8______42.3____65.1
5-6-9-Q______48.2____68.6
5-8-8-Q______46.8____69.1
5-6-8-Q______43.1____66.1
5-8D-9-Q_____45.4____68.4
6-8-8-9______53.0____72.2

5-6-8C-9 is best for expected averages by 0.04pt over 5-8-8-9 but 5-8-8-9 is slightly best for both Win %s and Loss %s. Although its early in the game the difference in expected averages is very slight and 5-8-8-9 is best for Win/Loss %s so I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
5____________________1.71
8____________________1.71
9____________________1.16
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