October 17, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
49*-51  ?
35%
29%
23%
6%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 157
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 AM
I can't see loosing 2 points in the hand to toss 8-9 in my crib.

Of course, this is a hand chosen by Ras today.
Rosemarie44 says: Well, well. Everybody is lining up taking sides on today's hand. It's a good one Ras.
Inushtuk1 says: I’m surprised at how much love (Q-5) is getting. I thought (8-9)would be a close second.
Rosemarie44 says: Me, too. Never even considered the 5-Q. One never knows what Ras has up his sleeve.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 AM
Its a tight one so keep as many chances for cuts on main. Peg the fifteens here. dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:09 AM
Occam's Razor? The simplest answer is usually the right one. Its a clunker hand, but I'll keep the sure 4 and try to peg.
Inushtuk1 says: Occam’s Razor? I had to look that up Greg. The things you learn when trying to learn this card game. Thanks for that.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:36 AM
Greg puts it well, I'd keep the four point hand too.
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:39 AM
I’ll keep the peggers and feed the crib. Offense to the lead.
JQT says: Yeah, what he said! (about 9 seconds before me today, glm!)
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:40 AM
Perhaps it's wrong to bust up those Four Points, but we must retain our sense of adventure in Cribbage to keep it fun.

Therefore, I'll Toss 5-X here and experiment with what should be our best shot at a large(r) Crib.

Dealing from Hole 49 is a very comfortable position, and it should allow for such experimentation. And we still get to play with a (different) two-card Magic Eleven in the form of 3-8.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Perhaps I only won a few more games than you on the weekend because of your sense of adventure? ; -)
JQT says: The cost of Adventure is Enormous: in Cribbage ... in Life ... and in Love ... but still, often worth the price!
Inushtuk1 says: Very apropos for my particular circumstances.
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:06 AM
Kept the four points, but I can fully see the Q-5 to the crib logic.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:24 AM
It will certainly not do wonders for my crib but I play for my hand first and my crib second.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:52 AM
I’m with JR this morning. But if I *was* on offense I’d toss myself (8-9). As far as (Q-5) is concerned; I guess I left my sense of adventure back in upstate NY.
Inushtuk1 says: So after the cut I have 9 known points. Hopefully that 9 cut will give me about the average for that toss of 4 points. That would put me at 62 if it were the case. I’ll play defense to the lead. I’ll *not* peg the fifteen, but dump my Ace, instead making the count (11) on any X-Card lead. I’ve got the two card Magic Eleven for (31-2) on a second X-card from the Pone, and the “Sweet Sixteen” of A-5-Q should my opponent dump his/her 5 at the count of (11). In that case I play my Q for (26) and hope for the GO.
Inushtuk1 says: Of course if good fortune smiles upon me it could be (31-4) on a second X-card from the Pone at the count of (11). We’ll see.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:11 AM
I know to ponder RAS submissions, but to me, keeping the 4 points and tossing the 3-8 was obvious. Maybe I'll learn something today, but, in the wisdom of Calvin (from Calvin & Hobbes) "Live and don't learn - that's us!"
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:20 AM
I'm in the Gary/JQT camp today. 5Q much better than 38, play the crib today and hold good peggers.
Gougie00 says: But I am always convinced that if I toss face-five that the pone will toss me A-7. I am not willing to give up 4 points for a big maybe.
Inushtuk1 says: Same here. Not on defense anyway.
Guest says: I'm with you guys as well. A mentor coaches me to always put some kind of 5 in my crib if it's not doing much in my hand. S :)
Inushtuk1 says: But *this* 5 is giving us 4 points in the hand.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:41 PM
I think its between A-5-9-Q (3-8), A-3-8-9 (5-Q) and A-3-5-Q (8-9):

A-5-9-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.92) = 8pts

A-3-8-9: 0pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 6½pts

A-3-5-Q: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 6¾pts

Potential:

A-5-9-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 555, 999, QQQ = 12 cuts.

A-3-8-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 3/4/5/6pts with 2222, 333, 6666, 7777, 10101010 = 19 cuts.

A-3-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 2222, 4444, 555, QQQ = 17 cuts.

Pegging:

With 3 low cards and a high card I think A-3-5-Q will peg best.

Position:

We're 5pts ahead of position and Pone is well short I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

A-5-9-Q starts with 1¼pt more than A-3-5-Q but the latter has many more cuts for improvement and 17 for 6/7pts. It also will peg well so I'll throw the 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:59 PM
At 49*-51 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 %
A-5-9-Q___6.04+(-1.93)+3.86=7.97____19.5____43.5
A-3-5-Q___4.78+(-1.87)+4.82=7.73____19.7____42.5
A-3-8-9___2.57+(-1.85)+6.65=7.37____17.2____39.6

Defense______L5 %____L6 %
A-5-9-Q______19.2____33.9
A-3-5-Q______20.5____35.2
A-3-8-9______20.6____38.0

A-5-9-Q is 0.24pt best for expected averages and slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 3-8 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:06 PM
Had always played the hand this way. Then noted on Cribbage Prof query that starting with zero an d discarding 5-Q was only .2 less in combined value on defense. What might it be playing offense? More later.
Ras2829 says: That near 7.0 point crib and better pegging numbers whether choosing offense or defense makes playing this hand a possible "adventure". Are you up to it?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Halscrib is showing (5-Q) on defense as 0.6 points lower. So I’m not up for *that* much of an adventure. I might be persuaded if on *offense* however.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:11 PM
If the strategy were Optimal (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-3-5-Q___4.78+1.63+4.82=11.24
A-5-9-Q___6.04+1.04+3.86=10.94
A-3-8-9___2.57+1.35+6.65=10.56

or Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-3-5-Q___4.78+3.50+4.82=13.10
A-5-9-Q___6.04+2.98+3.86=12.88
A-3-8-9___2.57+3.20+6.65=12.42

A-3-5-Q is best for expected averages for both these strategies however I am recommending a Defense strategy.