Thursday 3:25 AM

Appears that which strategy you are choosing determines which 2 cards you toss in your crib today: 9-T or 5-J both suited.

Going with expected averages I would be required to toss suited 9-T. But I am sure many will go with putting 5-J in their crib.

Will the results be clear cut or like yesterday's hand, two strategies proposed by Ras and Hal.

   

Thursday 3:30 AM

I like the add on cuts with this keep. Still a chance for an eight point crib. dec

   

Thursday 3:36 AM

I'm on business in MN this week, I'm not used to being an early visitor to this site. At face value looking at 10 or 12 points. Seemed worth it to me to bet 2 points for the double double. Putting a 5 in the crib made that decision even easier.

   

Thursday 4:15 AM

Considered throwing 910, but 3 of the Jacks are in our hand. And Queens and Kings are still left, hopefully ticketed for our crib.

   

Thursday 4:47 AM

I like the 12 point hand.

   

Thursday 4:55 AM

Again, let us determine who possesses a sense of adventure!

Yesterday, what did it really cost us to stow that 5 Card into our Crib? And do we always assume the computer is 100% correct? Remember, it improved in strength with every version, thus a way was found to improve upon it each time.

According to the illustrious computer, was it a point or two? NO: it was two-tenths of a point, people!

If we deal approximately five times per game, that 0.2 points "lost" as the Dealer would add up to one point per game! Remember, if we can PAIR (as opposed to being PEARED) during the pegging just once, that's a FOUR POINT SWING!

I like having the 5 Card nestled snugly in my Crib: so shoot me if costs a few TENTHS of a point now and then! And if I should fail to win as a result, then please let me continue to lose in good spirits! : - )

   

Thursday 4:56 AM

Nice puzzle. My gut reaction is to hold the sure 12 points. I opted for the double-run instead. It will be interesting to discover if my first instinct was the correct one.

   

Thursday 5:34 AM

I’m on offense so I like the five in my hand for pegging. Also, I don’t like giving up two points in hand score in this position.

   

Thursday 6:08 AM

It'll be interesting to see just how close the comparison is.
I take Dan's point regarding the negative delta of three Jacks being out of circulation, but I'll try 9-10 regardless. I can't see the worth in reducing my hand value from 12 down to 8 in order to discard J-5.

   

Thursday 6:25 AM

I’ll keep the 12 in my hand thank you very much. If I wanted adventure, I’d go on an African Safari, or maybe Reno this winter ; - )

I’m being facetious people. It’s actually very close again. But I can’t pass up the 12 points in my hand, even though 9-10-J-J is probably a better offensive pegger.

Defense to the lead now after a known minimum of 16 points. And that means taking the (15-2) on a 10, Q, or K lead and pairing the rare J lead.

   

Thursday 8:19 AM

This is how I'd do it but it looks like the numbers are somewhat against me.

Cautious offense to the cut

   

Thursday 12:05 PM

According to one table J-5 to own crib averages 7 points. 10-9 to own crib averages 4.30 points. Easily making up the loss of 2 points in keeping J-J-10-9. Also I am sure that holding 3 Jacks already in my hand reduce the chances for 10-9 to be meaningful in the crib.

   

Thursday 3:19 PM

Evidently its between 5-J-J-J and 9-10-J-J:

5-J-J-J: 12pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 16¼pts

9-10-J-J: 8pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 15pts

Potential:

5-J-J-J: Improves with 555 + 12xXs = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 14/20pts with all cuts. Plus 33 clubs, diamonds and hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 33/46 = 0.72pt.

9-10-J-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 8888, 999, 101010, J, QQQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 14/15/16pts with 555, 999, 101010, J = 10 cuts. Plus 22 diamonds and clubs = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg reasonably playing Offense.

Position:

Pone only needs 7pts to reach the 70pt positional hole. We need 33pts to reach 96pts by our next deal so I'll play Offense.

Summary:

5-J-J-J starts with 1¼pts more than 9-10-J-J and also has an extra 0.24pt for the third J. However 9-10-J-J has more cuts for improvement and 10 cuts for 14-16pts. The maximum for 5-J-J-J at 20pts though is much higher with 4 cuts for 20pts (555, J). On balance I think I'll retain the dozen and throw 9-10.

   

Thursday 3:26 PM

At 63*-63 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-J-J-J___13.89+2.09+3.68=19.66____35.9____49.6
9-10-J-J*_10.57+2.57+6.50=19.66____34.4____48.3

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-J-J-J_______21.4____36.5
9-10-J-J*_____21.0____37.1

* suited 5-J

These two hands are level for expected averages but 5-J-J-J is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 9-10 to discard.

After the 8S cut I'll play Defense to the lead.