November 4, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
60*-60  ?
37%
28%
25%
7%
0%
0%
Total votes: 153

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Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:13 AM
Did everyone set their clocks back?

Out of all the choices for my crib: 7-8, A-4, or A-A, I decided to toss the 7-8 and hold A-A-4-9 which I believe might be the better pegger out of holding the other hands.

Let's see what other decide and of course, Ras will chime in later.



Reply
james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:20 AM
Three options appeal to me: A-A, A-4 and 7-8.

4-7-8-9 (A-A) has a starting value of 5+2=7, but won't increase in value after cuts of 5,J,Q or K (16/46). Does comprise a 7-4 eleven and 7-9 sixteen for pegging though.

A-7-8-9 (A-4) will also be worth at least 5+2=7, and all cuts bar a 2 or 3 will work somehow. No eleven combo here, but still the 7-9 sixteen.

A-A-4-9 (7-8) only guarantees 4+2=6, but will improve after every cut bar a 3. Has two A-4 combos for an extra boost after an X cut. 9-A-A may score 31/4 in the pegging. X-middle is a common defensive discard by Pone, and any middle card to my crib will have synergy with the 7-8 I've put there.
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Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 3:42 AM
7-8 gets no help, but A-4 always does.
Reply
dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 4:18 AM
Crib, face cards odds for main hand and defensive (possibly offensive pegging ). I heard some players say this is where the game starts to happen more. dec
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Andy (muesli64)
1409 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 5:43 AM
Am I missing something?
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JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 6:11 AM
I like the A-A-9 Magic Eleven as Dealer or Non Dealer.

Furthermore, while Toss A-4 would assure us of at least Two Points in our Crib, Toss 7-8 IS ALREADY Two Points in our Crib!

What's the diff? Well, Toss 7-8 will tend to average a full point MORE than Toss A-4, not because of the (15-2) potential, but because of the inherent RUN potential we get from "Touching" cards.

As an aside, Toss A-A would leave us with perhaps the most powerful Hand today, and therefore might compete well with Toss A-4.

However, as the Dealer in Cribbage, we are looking for the combined SYNERGY of Hand and Crib, and not simply the maximization of one of these. Go with Toss 7-8.
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horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 6:34 AM
At 60*-60 it's -10/+0 and we ought to play off. Not only does this hand have the best averages, it should be less liable to get into trouble in the pegging.
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horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 6:47 AM
Also don't think I'd play for the 9-A-A magic eleven. It's great for offense but risky with pone in marginal position. What if he holds an ace himself and snags our 31-4?
Reply
Jazzselke
1102 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 7:43 AM
Like the pegging prospects with AA49,and prefer 78 in the crib over AA, and to a lesser extent A4.Great puzzle Ras.
Reply
glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 8:58 AM
What dan said just above me.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 11:24 AM
A-A-4-9 (7-8) has a lot going for it but A-7-8-9 (A-4) and 4-7-8-9 (A-A) start with 1pt more:

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

A-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts

4-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 10¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-7-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-9 will peg best with 3 low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Pone only needs the average 10pts to reach 3rd street positional hole of 70pts so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Summary:

A-A-4-9 starts with ¼pt more but according to Scell there is very little in it. However it also has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/12pts. It should peg very well too so I'll throw the 7-8.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 11:56 AM
At 60*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-A-4-9___6.96+(-2.39)+6.44=11.01____14.2____34.4
A-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.17)+5.28=10.26____11.9____33.3
4-7-8-9___7.20+(-2.11)+5.08=10.17____11.8____32.6

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-4-9_______16.2____43.4
A-7-8-9_______14.9____42.8
4-7-8-9_______15.4____43.7

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.75pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. It isn't lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Reply
Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 12:43 PM
Choosing an optimal strategy, would play the 9 on a Q/K lead. Will pick up 31-4 with the Aces in a high percentage of the cases. Most players will advance the count to 29 reducing the number of cards that are playable. Those who drop a smaller card on the 9 response avoid the 31-4. Might still give me three pegs though with the back-to-back Aces. Would you pair an Ace lead here? Note that this keep is the worst in terms of defensive pegging (see HaslcribCLX analysis).
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 1:35 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

Sunday 2:08 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.
Reply