November 4, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
60*-60  ?
37%
28%
25%
7%
0%
0%
Total votes: 153
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:13 AM
Did everyone set their clocks back?

Out of all the choices for my crib: 7-8, A-4, or A-A, I decided to toss the 7-8 and hold A-A-4-9 which I believe might be the better pegger out of holding the other hands.

Let's see what other decide and of course, Ras will chime in later.



james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:20 AM
Three options appeal to me: A-A, A-4 and 7-8.

4-7-8-9 (A-A) has a starting value of 5+2=7, but won't increase in value after cuts of 5,J,Q or K (16/46). Does comprise a 7-4 eleven and 7-9 sixteen for pegging though.

A-7-8-9 (A-4) will also be worth at least 5+2=7, and all cuts bar a 2 or 3 will work somehow. No eleven combo here, but still the 7-9 sixteen.

A-A-4-9 (7-8) only guarantees 4+2=6, but will improve after every cut bar a 3. Has two A-4 combos for an extra boost after an X cut. 9-A-A may score 31/4 in the pegging. X-middle is a common defensive discard by Pone, and any middle card to my crib will have synergy with the 7-8 I've put there.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:42 AM
7-8 gets no help, but A-4 always does.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Among the frequent discards made by non-dealer are: 9-K, 6-K, 9-Q, 6-Q,8-K, 7-10, 6-10 and other similar choices (mid-card/X-pointer). All are of substantial help to the 7-8 dealer toss. BTW am not a fan of 7-8 toss, though must "give the devil his due.".
Coeurdelion says: And of course with help from the cut and one from Pone we can get a nice dozen with 4 cards out of the 5.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:18 AM
Crib, face cards odds for main hand and defensive (possibly offensive pegging ). I heard some players say this is where the game starts to happen more. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 5:43 AM
Am I missing something?
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:11 AM
I like the A-A-9 Magic Eleven as Dealer or Non Dealer.

Furthermore, while Toss A-4 would assure us of at least Two Points in our Crib, Toss 7-8 IS ALREADY Two Points in our Crib!

What's the diff? Well, Toss 7-8 will tend to average a full point MORE than Toss A-4, not because of the (15-2) potential, but because of the inherent RUN potential we get from "Touching" cards.

As an aside, Toss A-A would leave us with perhaps the most powerful Hand today, and therefore might compete well with Toss A-4.

However, as the Dealer in Cribbage, we are looking for the combined SYNERGY of Hand and Crib, and not simply the maximization of one of these. Go with Toss 7-8.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 6:34 AM
At 60*-60 it's -10/+0 and we ought to play off. Not only does this hand have the best averages, it should be less liable to get into trouble in the pegging.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 6:47 AM
Also don't think I'd play for the 9-A-A magic eleven. It's great for offense but risky with pone in marginal position. What if he holds an ace himself and snags our 31-4?
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:43 AM
Like the pegging prospects with AA49,and prefer 78 in the crib over AA, and to a lesser extent A4.Great puzzle Ras.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 8:58 AM
What dan said just above me.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 11:24 AM
A-A-4-9 (7-8) has a lot going for it but A-7-8-9 (A-4) and 4-7-8-9 (A-A) start with 1pt more:

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 10½pts

A-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 10¼pts

4-7-8-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 10¼pts

Potential:

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-7-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-9 will peg best with 3 low cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

Pone only needs the average 10pts to reach 3rd street positional hole of 70pts so I'll play Defense to try to keep them short.

Summary:

A-A-4-9 starts with ¼pt more but according to Scell there is very little in it. However it also has more cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/12pts. It should peg very well too so I'll throw the 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:56 AM
At 60*-60 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-A-4-9___6.96+(-2.39)+6.44=11.01____14.2____34.4
A-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.17)+5.28=10.26____11.9____33.3
4-7-8-9___7.20+(-2.11)+5.08=10.17____11.8____32.6

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-4-9_______16.2____43.4
A-7-8-9_______14.9____42.8
4-7-8-9_______15.4____43.7

A-A-4-9 is best for expected averages by 0.75pt and is appreciably better for Win %s. It isn't lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 12:43 PM
Choosing an optimal strategy, would play the 9 on a Q/K lead. Will pick up 31-4 with the Aces in a high percentage of the cases. Most players will advance the count to 29 reducing the number of cards that are playable. Those who drop a smaller card on the 9 response avoid the 31-4. Might still give me three pegs though with the back-to-back Aces. Would you pair an Ace lead here? Note that this keep is the worst in terms of defensive pegging (see HaslcribCLX analysis).
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 1:35 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 2:08 PM
If playing Optimally (cautious offense):

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+0.93+6.44=14.33
4-7-8-9___7.20+0.98+5.08=13.26
A-7-8-9___7.15+0.57+5.28=13.00

If playing Offense:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-A-4-9___6.96+3.33+6.44=16.73
4-7-8-9___7.20+3.09+5.08=15.37
A-7-8-9___7.15+2.74+5.28=15.17

I am however recommending a Defense strategy.
Coeurdelion says: I strongly believe that sometimes when you have made the best decision for the discard it leaves you a hand that is better played to a different strategy to that which the position dictates. In this case A-A-4-9 plays much better in Offense and I think it should be played that way particularly after the 10 cut.
Ras2829 says: Hi Coeurdelion: There is much to be said regarding your long-held premise that the best choice is the best choice regardless of strategy. That is probably so 80% of the time. Believe about 1/5 will result in different choices to accommodate different strategies. Thanks for taking the extra step today to show how these cards work in an optimal or offense strategy.