November 5, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
62*-67  ?
50%
33%
16%
Total votes: 173

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:11 AM
Not much of a difference between the flush and A-4. Not all flushes have big potential in thy eyes.. so going for the seven or a ten here. dec
Reply
JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 3:24 AM
This is extremely difficult, because whether we decide to Toss 8-8 or Toss A-4 or whether we retain the FLUSH, in all three cases we seem to begin with a 'static' Four Points.

But by stuffing A-4 into our Crib, I think we shall maximize our Crib, since this "Totals Five" discard should beat the rather dull-looking Toss 4-8 by about Two Points.

Also, placing a 'PEAR' of 8 Cards into our Crib does not seem much more inspiring today than the rather prosaic and let's just say 'stoic-looking' Toss 4-8.

And we want to get this thing right, because our POSITION here probably leaves even more to be desired than our Discard Decision! I mean: I got up early for THIS?!
Reply
Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:53 AM
It Pays to Flush. I am going with that today.
Reply
Andy (muesli64)
1409 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 4:07 AM
I am going for the double run. We are badly behind.
Reply
james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 4:43 AM
Wishing you all a fun-filled Guy Fawkes night.
Reply
glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 4:58 AM
Forced into an offensive position with my opponent at 67 I’ll keep the 8-8-9 together. With that queen cut it’s now defense to the lead.
Reply
zeke76
87 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Monday 5:04 AM
No idea what the right play is.
Reply
Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:19 AM
Who wants lemonade?
Reply
Jazzselke
1102 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 5:55 AM
Dismal situation, I believe we need to try for the double run in this position. We would still need at least 2 more above average hands after that to have a reasonable chance to win.
Reply
dgergens
189 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 7:23 AM
Hmmm. Like JQT said, it was 4 points no matter what, so what to toss? The 4,8 was so uninspiring it didn't matter how much a good flush pays, so 8's or A,4? I kept the A,4 for the magic 11. So while I'm all alone at this juncture, I can justify my choice. And if pone puts a 7 and/or 8 in my crib, which I keep hearing is common, voila.
Reply
horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 9:17 AM
At -8/+7 I aim for best expected average. The flush is an okay hand averaging 6.5 to only 4.5 for this one. But I imagine A-4 is worth over 2 more than 4-8 in crib potential.

I can definitely see the case for the safe flush. The A-4 toss might have the best average but it might leave us with very little. The flush seems more sure with 34 cuts for 6 or more. The keep I went with scores under 6 on 36 cuts and how often have I tossed myself A-4 for only 2-4 points in crib? Still, decided to go with the averages early on third street.

As far as pegging goes, with a fairly mediocre hand we'll probably be playing defense. The flush would probably do better but 8-8-9-J isn't awful.

After the cut I'd definitely play defensively.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

Monday 11:55 AM
Three ways to start with 4pts - A-8C-9-J (4-8S), 8-8-9-J (A-4) or A-4-9-J (8-8):

A-8C-9-J: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.83) = 8pts

8-8-9-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

A-4-9-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts

Potential:

A-8C-9-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 7/8/9 with 5555, 6666, 7777, 10101010 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 2pt extra for his nob and the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

8-8-9-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/10/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-4-9-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.2% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 10101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Pegging:

I think A-4-9-J will peg best of the three hands.

Position:

Pone only need 3pts to get into position so averaging 10pt should be well past the positional hole of 70pts. We're well behind so I'll play Offense.

Summary:

The flush starts with most and also has the extra cuts for the flush (0.20pt). But A-4-9-J has the most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 6-8pts which is a tremendous increase from 2pts. It also should peg well According to Schell the starting value is approx. 7½pts so it has to catch up 0.50pt + 0.20pt on the flush. I think it will be close but I'll throw the 8-8.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 11:55 AM
My vote!
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 12:12 PM
At 62*-67 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
A-4-9-J___4.72+2.85+5.34=12.91____11.0____13.8
A-8C-9-J__6.48+2.67+3.69=12.84____10.7____13.8
8-8-9-J___4.54+2.80+5.39=12.73____11.2____14.0

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
A-4-9-J_______37.0____68.2
A-8C-9-J______37.5____68.6
8-8-9-J_______36.4____67.6

A-4-9-J is best for expected by 0.07pt over the flush and 0.18pt over 8-8-9-J. However 8-8-9-J is best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. As we're approaching a positional hole halfway through the game and the difference in expected averages is small I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select A-4 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Reply
Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 2:17 PM
Playing an offense strategy This choice offers the better pegging potential. Since holding 8-8, on-dealer just might not find use for 7-9, 7-7, 6-7, A-6 all of which would enhance crib score dramatically. Pairs in a dealer hand often get help in the crib as the mathematical probabilities are skewed in favor of the desired discard. As further example if holding 3-3, discarding same as dealer, n/d just might toss A-2, 2-4, 6-9, or 9-9 as such might not be of value in hand. Besides that when discarding pairs to own crib, there are three cards that might make them work. If holding a pair in hand as dealer for two points, the only card that will help them is the starter card. Up the potential score with such a discard. Note that the combined value in HalscribCLX favors the A-4-9-J. Win and loss percentages are very close, and RAS will play on the lead.
Reply