November 6, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
10-8*  ?
64%
10%
8%
8%
4%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 149

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dgergens
189 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 3:20 AM
This is a first.
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JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:37 AM
Bury the Boat Anchors!
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dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 4:18 AM
I see this one from time to time.I do this way when its early and close. Problem is one of three cuts show up 5, face or sometimes the two. Not done yet but I do like the cut. By the book three lead for me. dec
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Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 4:26 AM
The ten and Queen is going, going. gone.
Reply
james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:11 AM
Tempted by Q-7 or Q-8.
2-3-8-10 improves after every cut bar a 6.
2-3-7-10 improves after every cut bar a 9.

The gapped 8-10 might be nice to keep, but I reckon 8-Q is sufficiently worse to my opponent than Q-7, for me to decline it.
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Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 5:28 AM
Usually when I toss the Opponent 10-Q, I cut a Jack. This is a hedge. I want the 2-3 and the 7-8 for pegging, and because without 8 points in my hand, I cannot justify giving the dealer the 7 or the 8. (I surmise I am not the only one that refuses to give up middle cards) Lead the 3 and peg.
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zeke76
87 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 5:30 AM
Talk about a consensus.
Reply
Jazzselke
1102 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:40 AM
First dealer, play position on first street? Not usually going to hold 4, give up 2 unless behind later in the game.
Reply
wasa
1015 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 6:56 AM
I am in the minority today. Others say "no brainer" but I pondered T-Q and 7-Q. Wanted to keep the 2-3 together, and figured the 8-T work with a 9 cut but keeping the 7 requires me to keep the 8. If I don't have a great hand, then balk the opponent's crib. Curious was RAS will have to say.
Reply
glmccuskey
2821 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 7:09 AM
Lead the three and take points as offered.
Reply
horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Tuesday 9:21 AM
Knew I'd be in the minority today!

The relative position of this score is +2/-10 calling for offense for the same reason that 113-111* would call for offense. But on first street we have a lot of game ahead and a huge crib could definitely yield a loss, which is why you should generally play more "optimally" early on rather than commit to total offense or total defense.

Still all of the other keeps result in pretty bad hands. 2-3-7-8 has a max of 7 and scores under 6 about half of the time. 2-3-7-T and 2-3-8-T are even worse.

On most days I would probably hedge my bets and toss T-Q but I'm feeling bullish this election morning. Just a few days ago I tossed 7-9 from 2-3-7-9-J-Q in a nearly identical position and gave up a 24 point crib. Went on to win the game by two points - two points I wouldn't have had had I been chicken on first street!

I'd play offense after the cut and lead the three.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:19 PM
Three hands seem likely - 2-3-7-8 (10-Q), 2-3-8-10 (7-Q) and 2-3-7-10 (8-Q):

2-3-7-8: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = -2½pts

2-3-8-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.32) = -2¼pts

2-3-7-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

2-3-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7 with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts.

2-3-8-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 9999, 101010 = 21 cuts.

2-3-7-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010 = 21 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-7-8 will peg slightly better than the other two.

Position:

In three deals time we want to be at 44pts and dealing that's 34pts away and the average is 36pts so we still have positional advantage but ideally we need to be deeper into the CPZ. I'll play Offense to improve my prospects.

Summary:

The starting value of 2-3-7-8 is ¼pt less than other two but it has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for 5-7pts. Also I think it will peg better so I'll throw the 10-Q.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3417 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 2:20 PM
At 10-8* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
2-3-7-8___5.39+2.11+(-4.91)=2.59____20.8____38.9
2-3-8-10__4.96+1.67+(-4.22)=2.41____18.4____36.8
2-3-8-Q___4.70+1.59+(-4.16)=2.13____17.7____35.8
2-3-7-10__4.70+1.52+(-4.19)=2.03____18.2____36.6

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
2-3-7-8______20.2____31.1
2-3-8-10_____18.0____31.5
2-3-8-Q______18.1____32.2
2-3-7-10_____17.8____31.6

2-3-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.18pt and is slightly best for Win %s. Although its not lowest for Loss %s as 10-Q is more risky I'll select it to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
2_____________________2.01
8_____________________1.83
3_____________________1.77
7_____________________1.62
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Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:39 PM
Am sorry that this puzzle does not live up to my normal quality. Entered the website at 1:30 AM 3/6 to find that there was no puzzle for this date. The puzzle had been deleted at the last minute by a moderator. Some moderators might not know that when they delete a puzzle, the day is without one. Existing puzzles do not advance a day to fill the vacancy. So important if moderator does not submit a puzzle to fill that hole, make deletions a week ahead and remind folks of vacant spots available. In that case somebody can submit a puzzle within that week and not have to wait a year to see their puzzle appear. Keep the peggers and paly offense.
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