November 8, 2018
33% | |||||
28% | |||||
23% | |||||
4% | |||||
3% | |||||
2% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
Total votes: 163 |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Thursday 3:28 AM
To be honest, I am not really sure that this is the way to go at this position. We are really behind.
Tossing 5-8 is certainly better than tossing 5-5 which leaves a good hand that increases with every cut. Whether you decide to toss 5-8 to 5-5 there are 24 cuts that keep each hand at 10 points or 12 points, respectively. Considered holding 5-5-7-7 and tossing 6-8 a safe toss as we are holding 7-7 but that would reduce our hand to only 4 points to begin with rather that 8 or 12 as noted above. |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Thursday 4:00 AM
I might play this differently depending upon whether I was trying to somehow still WIN this game, or whether I was merely attempting to avert the SKUNK.
Let's go for the WIN! We have Eight Cuts (666, 77, 888) that will give us Twenty or more Points. And Toss 5-5 is worth about Ten Points, or *only* around Two Points more than Toss 7-8. Trailing by Twenty (good 'Working Title' for that Cribbage-Related Horror Flick) is probably no place to be getting all defensive, with ideas such as Toss 5-8 or perhaps even worse, Toss 6-8. JQT says: Again, in many tournament situations, or with a 'Double for SKUNKS' money game on the line, I would probably approach this differently, and strongly consider other discards such as Toss 5-8. JQT says: Other than a 5 Card, that Jack is likely the WORST POSSIBLE CUT! |
Jazzselke 2583 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Thursday 4:26 AM
Agree with JQT, if trying to win the game you have to throw the fives. If trying to avoid a skunk, or protecting your spread in a tournament, other throws to be considered. In a game last year with 556788, I kept 5567 and threw the eights to my opponent in a less extreme position. Cut a 7 for 16, but he had a 24 crib! King Richard says: Except at the end of 4th Street, always keep a dozen. Live by that rule, and sometimes (probably here) die by that rule! Guest says: I couldn't throw both 5's when I could still have 8 points by throwing just one 5. Went with 5-8. S :)
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james500 3917 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Thursday 4:53 AM
Nothing appeals, but 5-8 is the least unappetising.
7d lead. |
wasa 3013 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Thursday 5:45 AM
Really don't want to toss 5-5 or 7-8 so going for the safer 5-8. Glad I didn't toss the 5-5 with the J cut. |
Gougie00 5724 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Thursday 6:03 AM
Down by 20, gotta go for the long bomb. The Jack doesnt help and the other guy's crib already has 6. I smell a skunk. Ugh ... |
glmccuskey 4095 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Thursday 8:12 AM
Not much choice in this position. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Thursday 8:51 AM
Depending whether you are dealing or not, this is one of those hands that brings great joy or great consternation. I know we're 20 points down, but there's a few more hands to be dealt. What good is a good score if dealer matches it with a great crib? I'll toss the 5,8, be happy with 8 points, hope for a double double, and expect a 24 point hand in the immediate future. horus93 says: Same thinking here |
Ras2829 5146 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Thursday 10:21 AM
You know what the chances of me tossing 5-5 are? I don't want to face potential murder charges. Those new to the site may not have heard my real-life experience with tossing 5-5 to opponent crib. The last times that I took a chance on 5-5, the combined score was 51 points (23 + 28). In that latter situation, dealer gave me 5-5-7-7-8-8. Like today's dilemma, was down 20 points or better in the middle of third street. The cut was a 10d to which I replied: "Oh shit!" He asked: What's the trouble?" I replied: "I just dumped 5-5 to your crib." He quickly said: "Ain't that something? So did I!" Dealer had tossed that powerful pair from 2-2-3-4-5-5. He scored his hand of 12 points, took what was left of fourth street with that 28-point crib. He died the following week. Have always believed the shock of that crib had something to do with his demise. Whenever I saw his widow, was always tight-lipped about that huge crib and the degree that it may have shocked him excessively.. Was concerned that she could make a case for a premeditated murder. In looking at my records, I have tossed fifty-eight 5-5 combinations to opponent and made that choice 500 times to own crib. Those were recorded over more than a decade (about 14 years). That's an average of about four times annually for that powerful 5-05 to opponent. Believe 50 of the 58 were prior to that fateful shocking day of the 28 crib. Don't try it! Unless you're a seasoned sniper with a huge kill total, don't chance it. Killing somebody could cause you a lifetime of guilt. It's the 5-8 for me, lead a 7 choosing an offense strategy. Don't believe dealer will pair the 7 with a 20 point lead. It leaves me with three consecutive cards which increases my chances for pegs if dealer plays off my 7 lead. JRCeagle78 says: In one of my first tournaments I was dealt 5-5-7-7-8-8 and chose to discard 5-5 to my opponents crib. The dealer kept J-J-Q-K and discarded 8-9.
We were both surprised after a 3 was cut and it was completely useless all around. It goes to show that you never can tell what will happen during this self-inflicting torture we call cribbage. |
joekayak 1873 votes Joined: May 2016 |
    Thursday 10:26 AM
I won't throw 5-5. With a throw of 7-8, I have one of the 6's and one of the 7's. In poker, they call these blockers. I hate my position. I hate my throw. But I'll hold my nose and throw 8-7 and keep 5-5-6-7 and it looks like I have company. So far, just no one except me willing to stick up for it. Nice cut. |
dec 6352 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Thursday 11:18 AM
Half of one with the other half of the other. Whats that 5-5 average again? Theres always the 15-16 chance with just maybe only 2-4 to their crib. Next hand please. dec Ras2829 says: Hi dec: The 5-5 to opponent crib averages 9.086 based on my 58 tosses in live play. That's not many on which to base an average. I won't live long enough to amass 100. The problem with the 5-5 is that it scores 8-11 66.2%, scores 12 or more 22.88% for a whoppin' combined total of 89.08% at 8 points or beyond. Nothing comes within 40 points of that. True the 5-5 scores two points 2.16% of the time. |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Thursday 11:30 AM
Yes, the boring 5-8. But it might be life saving. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Thursday 12:23 PM
The best defensive toss would be 6-8, but being twenty holes behind, that is not the discard of a sane man. As many cribbage players can attest, the words "sane man" and "cribbage player" should never be used in the same sentence. The next logical discard would therefore be 5d-8c and be extremely grateful if the dealer does not have a "terminal" crib to my detriment. I'll lead from my pair and take any pegs that are offered.
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Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Thursday 2:57 PM
This is a well-known old chestnut and in this position where we could do with 20/24pts I'll throw the 5-5 with my heart in my mouth and my fingers crossed! |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Thursday 4:07 PM
At 40-60* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss%s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 % 5-6-7-7*__11.65+1.46+(-5.85)=7.26____0.4____4.8 5-5-6-7___12.13+1.17+(-6.49)=6.81____0.5____4.9 6-7-7-8___14.83+1.22+(-9.61)=6.44____1.1____6.9 Offense______L4 %___L5 % 5-6-7-7*_____16.9___69.6 5-5-6-7______20.5___71.3 6-7-7-8______27.2___75.3 * unsuited 5-8 5-6-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.45pt but 6-7-7-8 is slightly best for Win %s. However 5-6-7-7 is also very much best for Loss %s so I'll select unsuited 5-8 to discard. After The J cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense: ____________Our Pegging Pts. 7________________1.78 6________________1.29 5________________1.18 |