Saturday 3:16 AM

Kept the Deuce in case a 5 Card was Cut! Also considered Toss 3-6. Tricky Discard! Lead the 8c.

   

Saturday 3:19 AM

Believe we have a choice between 3-6, 3-9, or 2-9. Decided on the safer toss of 3-6 and keeping the 8-8-9 together.

   

Saturday 3:21 AM

Slim pickings today, but at least there are plenty of helpful cuts, (2,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10), with this choice. A bit anxious about the value of the crib though, 3-5-6-?-? could be a pleasant surprise for Dealer. 8d lead.

   

Saturday 4:30 AM

3-6 or 3-9 virtual dead heat. Since non dealer with these particular pairings I will do the one with possible cuts that would do a better overall average. Insignifant as it is there is an eleven count that might aid in the defensive pegging. Power in numbers lead one of the eights. dec

   

Saturday 5:17 AM

Purely defensive tactic. Lead the 8.

   

Saturday 6:01 AM

I want to keep the 2-3 in my hand. Leading the three.

   

Saturday 9:18 AM

Going for a good start, or not. If I were going to break it up I would not throw 3-9, a 3 cut and 4 points for dealer. Throw 2 and dealer gets a 4 cut there is 2 points but I gain more.

   

Saturday 12:24 PM

2-6 or 3-6 for me. going with the 2-6 as I really don't like the 3-6 to pones crib.

   

Saturday 4:16 PM

The safest throw of these is 2-9 so I'll compare 6-8-8-9 (2-3) with 3-6-8-8 (2-9) and the open-ended run 2-8-8-9 (3-6):

6-8-8-9: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -3½pts

3-6-8-8: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -2¾pts

3-8-8-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = -3pts

Potential:

6-8-8-9: Improves with AAAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/10/16pts with all cuts.

3-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/12pts with AAAA, 4444, 666, 7777, 88 = 17 cuts.

2-8-8-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 666, 7777, 88, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/8/12pts with 5555, 7777, 88, 10101010 = 14 cuts

Pegging:

I think all the hands will peg reasonably well.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense and trying to reach First Positional hole of 18pts.

Summary:

6-8-8-9 starts with ½/¾pt more but 2-8-8-9 has slightly more cuts for improvement. 6-8-8-9 also has 20 cuts for 8-16pts. 2-8-8-9 has the most cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-12pts which is a tremendous improvement from 2pts. By the way Schell puts 3-6 at 4.87pts and 2-6 at 4.97 so I've used 3-6 to compare. I think I'll be more cautious and throw the 3-6.

   

Saturday 5:36 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-8-8-9___4.48+1.30+(-4.28)=1.50____18.2____19.1
2-6-8-8___4.30+1.26+(-4.30)=1.26____17.8____18.2
3-8-8-9___4.43+1.26+(-4.45)=1.24____18.5____18.8
3-6-8-8___4.26+1.26+(-4.36)=1.16____18.1____18.7
3-6-8-9___4.13+1.39+(-4.44)=1.08____18.2____18.5
2-6-8-9___4.22+1.24+(-4.46)=1.00____18.1____18.2
2-3-8-8___4.96+1.70+(-5.80)=0.86____20.0____17.7
2-3-6-9___4.96+1.83+(-6.00)=0.79____21.0____17.9
6-8-8-9___6.61+1.43+(-7.55)=0.49____23.5____17.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-8-8-9______36.0____53.2
2-6-8-8______36.6____54.1
3-8-8-9______36.8____53.8
3-6-8-8______36.3____53.7
3-6-8-9______37.2____54.4
2-6-8-9______37.5____54.8
2-3-8-8______41.2____56.7
2-3-6-9______42.1____56.8
6-8-8-9______45.4____58.2

2-8-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.24pt and although 6-8-8-9 is apreciably best for Win %s 2-8-8-9 is lowest for Loss %s. As its the start of the game I'll put most emphasis on the expected averages and select 3-6 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
8___________________1.16
2___________________0.99
9___________________0.88

   

Sunday 12:10 AM

That2-3 to opponent crib averages 7.524. Can't make such a toss to hold four points. So it is the 3-6, lead an 8 and take pegs as offered.