December 6, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
4*-8  ?
82%
13%
2%
1%
Total votes: 160

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Rosemarie44
1034 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:20 AM
Good morning from Salem, Massachusetts. Took some help to get this site as I am not a hp fan.
Believe that I chose to toss 6-7 to my crib. No backup papers or notes handy here.
The great thing is that they have not had any snow at all so travelling was perfect.
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dec
4284 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 4:07 AM
Cribbage discard pro recommends a safe strategy so its A-2 for that. Me I will go for twnety cuts for 12 to 15 points possible. We still have a disadvantage we could overcome with first dealer a little short there also. Lets overtake! Pick a two lead. dec
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cribbagepogo
2721 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 4:24 AM
How ideal!! Why would I break up any other way. We may find out. Hope there isn't too much fog on his mountain this AM.
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Gougie00
3723 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:07 AM
Good morning from about 20 miles northeast of Salem, and I guess I am an HP fan. I choose 6-7 because they touch, and I might catch a stray 8 in the crib.

Both players are short of position, but the 12 hand and potential of perhaps 5 in the crib gets me healthier. Except for 3 lead, reply with a 2 and play cautious offense.
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JQT
2486 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 5:08 AM
A-2-2-2 in the hand and 6-7 in the bush...
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james500
1973 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:28 AM
With sixteen X's and four threes still available, I've a fair chance of 12+ post cut.
Many moons ago JQT opened our eyes to the highest scoring discard that doesn't guarantee any points, and since then it doesn't take much arm twisting for me to treat my crib to 6-7.
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zeke76
105 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Thursday 5:56 AM
This one was straightforward I think.
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horus93
281 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Thursday 6:35 AM
Pone is in marginal position (+0) to win the game in an average number of deals while we have a big deficit (-14) to win in the same number. This is a thoroughly defensive position with these cards. If we can hold pone short of 18 we should be in pretty good shape, with our deficit becoming a comfortable surplus.

It is precisely the same relative position as if the score were 107*-111.

It might not be as desperately defensive as it would be on fourth street but still basically the same situation.

Both players are *not* simultaneously short of position - that's not even possible! At any given relative score one player will have a surplus or be right at par, and one will have a deficit.
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Jazzselke
1122 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 6:53 AM
Not sure of the curveball here when any face card gives us 12. 2267 would be better for pegging, but gives up too much in hand value IMO.
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glmccuskey
2846 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 7:52 AM
Nothing to add except that I agree.
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Andy (muesli64)
1419 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 9:29 AM
As above
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Inushtuk1
713 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 10:10 AM
Our mentor Ras has given us a perfect example of the rare time when gameís starting nd should play defense on the second deal. Donít be afraid of these tightly bunched cards. Safety in numbers? 2-2-6-7 might actually get you into more pegging trouble. In any case the expected averages favor keeping it this way by far, even on defense. Besides you might need these small cards should you decide to switch to offense.

That J makes a big difference. Iíll switch to offense knowing Iíll be at Hole 19 minimum next hand as the Pone. I need to get on down the board after that disasterous start; and not too worried about my opponent as s/he didínt do much better first Deal. Respond with a deuce like Greg says on most leads. But any X-card will see my A. If s/heís holding a double run of face cards Iíll get 9 Holes. Pairing the Ace or deuce lead. On a 3 or 4 lead the deuce entices a 3 card run that I can extend.
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JRCeagle78
578 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 10:38 AM
I had this same hand last night during my grass roots, although at a different position on the board. The only difference is I had a 3 as a starter card. With 16 X-cards available, I see no reason to play the hand any other way.
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Coeurdelion
3678 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 3:08 PM
6-7 or A-2?:

A-2-2-2: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 11pts

2-2-6-7: 6pts + 4ľpts (Schell: 4.23) = 10ľpts

Potential:

A-2-2-2: Improves with AAA, 2, 3333, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 12/15pts with 2, 3333 + 16xXs = 21 cuts.

2-2-6-7: Improves with 2, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 2, 5555, 666, 777, 8888 = 15 cuts.

Pegging:

With a 3-card magic eleven I think 2-2-6-7 will peg better.

Position:

If we were First Pone we started poorly so I'll continue to play Offense.

Summary:

A-2-2-2 has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good/very good hand. It also starts with an extra ĺpt so although it might not peg so well I'll throw the useful 6-7.
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HalscribCLX
3437 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 4:05 PM
At 4*-8 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-2-2-2___9.48+(-1.89)+4.54=12.13____53.6____48.2
2-2-6-7___8.13+(-2.82)+3.76= 9.87____47.8____43.8

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-2-2-2_______45.6____29.8
2-2-6-7_______46.9____34.7

A-2-2-2 is better for expected averages by 2.26pts and is also significantly better for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.
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joekayak
577 votes

Joined: May 2016

Friday 12:14 AM
Not much to learn here from the keep. I do really like the discussions/comments on def vs off vs optimum re pegging and (on hands where we are non-dealer) leading.
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