December 7, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
97*-107  ?
50%
19%
11%
11%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 168
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:24 AM
Believe we need to play catch up so as to position ourselves for next hand as pone. Nice cut of a Jack for help.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:29 AM
Choice on most boards. Now peg carefully now that we are at 111. dec
stevenomes says: what would you lead here? 3 and hope to avoid a pair? also could be trouble staying out of run opportunities if they have some low cards.
stevenomes says: sorry I'm thinking backwards since we play 2nd. I suppose the strategy would be try to avoid getting I to a run if possible.
Guest says: My best guess is a three would probably occur on most of the leads. Might survive a three card peg if they only have ten. Just opinion. here to learn too. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:53 AM
A sacrifice of two points in hand, (10 to 8), to allow the 4-5 discard should be okay, and I still have the potential for 12+ points in hand (after cuts of 3,666 or 9999).

Three fifths of a heart flush in the crib.

On another theme, found this link and thought I'd share it:
http://ledbury-crib.org.uk/cribbage_trainer.htm
Maybe somebody might enjoy it?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi james500: I like the Discard Challenge.
Guest says: With the discard challenge, it is strictly what maximizes your hand. It does not account for whose crib it is (like this site does) or for keeping good peggers in lieu of best hand
james500 says: Hi Guest. You're quite right about the shortcomings of the discard challenge section of the website. I tend to use it for counting practise, as playing almost exclusively electronically, I'd otherwise get out of the habit. I know that JQT has a link to a cribbage solitaire programme that is useful for improving your discarding decsion making. I did have it myself, but that was on my old computer.
dgergens says: After reading everyone's comments, I'm not persuaded that 3345 is that much better than 3336. Don't feel like I made a mistake today.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:49 AM
I reluctantly tossed suited 3-6 because I wanted to keep the double run. Looks like we are headed for another deal. I plan to get myself as close as possible without allowing the dealer to peg out next deal. The question is my level of aggression.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 4:52 AM
I down see any other throw that would cause me to break up this 10 points. Cautious offense with my opponent at 107.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 5:34 AM
I think we need both a good hand and a good crib.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:54 AM
Always a great hand to hold, unless an ace is cut. Even a 7 or 8 yields 14. With 12 points, guaranteed peg, and 2 for his heels, would only take safe pegs.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:57 AM
This double run has too much upside potential to dismember. With the Jack cut for two, a hand of 12, and an unknown crib score (likely 2-4), will peg optimally. Would ditch the lone 5 on a X-lead. If n/d pairs my five for a count of 20, would play trey for 23. Another reason to hold 3-3-4-5 is that 3-card 11 (3-3-5). Defensively those cards often allow us to close the count for 31-4 with the back to back treys. Quite safe to go for that as recall we discarded a trey.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 10:32 AM
Pretty sure this is best for expected averages even with the lackluster toss to crib. Roughly 4 in 10 cuts will give us 14 or more and it has a great offensive 11 should we need it.

Had to toss for expected averages at +1/-4 but now that I know we should be well within the "win zone" for next hand I would play defense. Hopefully these bunched cards don't get us into trouble.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Friday 12:21 PM
I thought about this a long time before choosing. I get to count first next time so I need to be close, which means I need a really good showing this time. The double double would do it, which requires good luck, and also means 3,6 in the crib and probably no help from the crib. Keeping the 3336 I have upside potential, with good luck, and I have 4,5 in the crib with upside potential. And, I think I can hold pack pone's pegging better with 3336. Will be reading everyone's comments intently.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Friday 1:36 PM
With the pone at 107 I felt that tossing the 4-5 would give me a better defensive hand. Just as I know that I need to catch up to be in position for first count, I don't want the pone to be in position to peg out before I get that opportunity,
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:54 PM
It looks like a choice between 3-3-4-5 (3C-6C), 3-3-3-6 (4-5) and 3-4-5-6 (3-3):

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 14pts

3-3-3-6: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 14½pts

3-4-5-6: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-3-4-5: Improves with 2222, 3, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 14/20/21pts with 3, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 = 19 cuts.

3-3-3-6: Improves with 3, 666, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 16/18/20pts with all cuts.

3-4-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/14/16pts with 2222, 3, 444, 555, 666, 7777 = 18 cuts.

Pegging:

3-3-4-5 and 3-4-5-6 should both peg well.

Position:

We're 1pt past positional hole but Pone only needs 14pts to get out. We need 24pts. If I get a big cut I can peg Defensively otherwise I may well have to play Offense.

Summary:

3-3-3-6 starts with ½pt more but 3-3-4-5 has many more cuts for improvement and a maximum up to 20/21pts. So I'll throw suited 3-6.
dgergens says: While you do have many more cuts to improve your hand, my FEELING is that is almost equally offset by the better chance of a good crib if 4,5 is tossed. Once I felt either hand had the same chances of getting big points lucky, I figured I could hold pone back from pegging more effectively with 3336.
Ras2829 says: Hi dgergens: You're right that 3-3-3-6 "will hold pone back from pegging...". The potential savings in pegging is less than .1 of a point based on my scant empirical data. Unfortunately you gave up more than four points in potential hand score to save that .1 pegging.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:09 PM
At 97*-107 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
3-3-4-5*__13.54+(-2.17)+3.46=14.83____16.5____57.5
3-3-3-4____9.37+(-2.07)+6.49=13.79____15.9____51.2
3-3-3-6____9.61+(-2.09)+5.86=13.38____11.8____51.5
3-4-5-6____9.61+(-2.22)+5.44=12.83____11.1____49.4

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
3-3-4-5*______21.9____35.5
3-3-3-4_______17.4____41.2
3-3-3-6_______14.3____42.1
3-4-5-6_______22.1____44.1

* suited 3-6

3-3-4-5 is 1.04pts better than 3-3-3-4 and is best for Win %s. It is not lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select 3C-6C to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.