December 8, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by james500
93-98*  ?
31%
25%
14%
13%
13%
1%
Total votes: 172
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:23 AM
I believe we need to get into position as pone for the next hand. That would require starting with 6 points rather than 4 points, not get into a pegging war with dealer and tossing the 7-9.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:21 AM
They need 12 or more this hand for good first count position. It matters more what they have combined. Three lead. dec
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:21 AM
They need 12 or more this hand for good first count position. It matters more what they have combined. Three lead. dec
Guest says: Tommy two times
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 4:39 AM
Looks Identical to a RAS puzzle I few days ago. Same for me. Defense. Lead the three of clubs.
Guest says: Me too. "Selke" hand. Merry Christmas, Mr G! Mrs. S :)
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 5:31 AM
Dealer is already in position with a two point surplus at 98.

For us, getting "in position" means holding dealer back more than anything else.

At 93-98* the scoring can be expected to run to
103*-114 next hand with opponent counting out with average scoring or even somewhat sub-par scoring.

It matters comparatively less how much we score (though a 0 hand would certainly screw us here as it would anywhere). We could score 20+ points this hand, it won't do us any good if dealer maintains average scoring on his end. That's why this calls for defense.

No way would I toss 7-9 here! And it's nice that the best balk of these cards leaves us with a pretty good hand that improves on every cut anyway.
horus93 says: The analogous scores on third, second, and first streets are 67-72*, 41-46*, and 15-20*. I'd play it the same way at any of those scores and for the same reasons. On first street one can be generally somewhat less cautious and more inclined towards expected averages but with this hand I'd still do 9-Q even there.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 6:07 AM
Agree that we need to discard and play defensively in order to hold Dealer back. With two threes out of circulation, is Q-2 worthy of consideration?

3c lead.
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Saturday 7:51 AM
Maybe it doesn't pay to flush? After reading the above comments I'm second guessing myself.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 8:13 AM
Purely a defensive gesture. Hold the flush and anything cut will help. Lead the 3 and take whatever points present themselves.
zeke76
1367 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 8:30 AM
I don’t like the flush today.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 1:53 PM
Most anytime I can find 10-K, 9-K, or 9-Q to discard from a hand such as this. Yeah, the cut of the Queen only gives me 8 points this way. The most important thing on this deal is for dealer to turn a low-scoring crib. The 9-Q is one of those discards that scores a very high number of 0-2 cribs with 42.224% and scores 12 or more 1.495%. In other words the 9-Q is 35 times as likely to score 0-2 as it is to score 12 or more. Only one time that I discarded 9-Q in nearly 2,000 to opponent did it score more than 12 points. That time I tossed a suited 9-Q and the crib totaled 16 points. What did opponent discard? Can you tell me what the starter card was? Will lead the 3c and escape with the 7c, faking a flush. Would I triple the trey if dealer paired? No! If my opponent wins this game, don't want it to be because I took six un-needed pegs and gave up 12 pegs and the game.
Hillchem says: Did your 9-Q find a pair of 5s in the crib and a third 5 on the deck?
Ras2829 says: Hi Hillchem: Nope - there is a legitimate way to make 16 points out of a suited 9-Q though.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 3:15 PM
I think its between 2-3-3-Q and 2-3-3-7:

2-3-3-Q; 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.26) = +¾pt

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

2-3-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 15xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands should peg well.

Position:

Opponent is well into Fourth Street CPZ and should be in a position to go out next deal. However I'll play Offense to put us in position to hold out next deal if opponent doesn't go out.

Summary:

2-3-3-Q starts with ¾pt more than 2-3-3-7 but 2-3-3-7 has more cuts for improvement and 35 cuts for 8-12pts. So I'll throw the 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:05 PM
At 93-98* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
2-3-3-7___8.04+2.46+(-4.23)=6.27____0.0____17.4
2-3-3-Q___9.57+1.70+(-5.21)=6.06____0.0____16.4

Offense______L1 %___L2 %
2-3-3-7______5.0____56.8
2-3-3-Q_____10.5____60.5

2-3-3-7 is better for expected averages by 0.21pt and is slightly better for Win %s and very much better for Loss % because of the safer discard. So I'll select 9-Q to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead 3C and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.20)
2____________________(-2.26)
7____________________(-2.69)