December 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
000-000*  ?
48%
39%
8%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 156
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:23 AM
Let's see if I can do better with today's hand. It pays to FLUSH.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:29 AM
and the 2-3-4-6 usually is an effective pegger. Lead the three. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:36 AM
Wouldn't want to discard 3-4 or 6-7 unless I'm the dealer.
3 lead from 3-2-6 combo.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 4:11 AM
So many choices today. So far looks like I made the right one. Had similar thoughts as James. Not happy about the cut. Game still young if 2,7 proves a mistake.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 5:09 AM
Lead the three and peg what you can can get.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 5:35 AM
As first pone holding excellent cards I would go on the offensive and discard for best expected hand value. It's a bonus that, today, the best toss for our hand is also a fairly safe one for opponent's crib.

2-2-3-4 has highest max but this hand has best averages and best odds of a 14+ hand.

I'd lead the 2 into the "magic 5" and play on.
Guest says: I like the three lead. It prevents the dealer from dumping their five with a hand like 5-X-X-X. Could cost you some pegs. glmcc
james500 says: fwiw, if our 6 were an 8 I'd lead the 2.
Guest says: Yeah, I was thinking the 2 would be less likely to be paired and it also keeps 3-4-6 together. Depending on what dealer is holding a 5 response might well get him into more trouble than a X, I'd be curious to hear what others think for sure.
Guest says: horus93 btw
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 6:46 AM
Can't think of a reason not to keep the flush. It starts with 9pts, will peg very well, has very good improvement (guaranteed increase and up to 15/16pts) and the 2-7 discard is relatively safe (est 5pts, Schell: 4.97). What more could you ask for?
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:04 AM
Agree with the 3 lead for the reason Gary mentions.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 7:39 AM
I wasnt sure the double run or the flush was the smartest move. Overwhelmingly, the crowd thinks the flush is the right answer.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 7:53 AM
Start with 9 points with the flush. It's unfortunate many players will retain the double when they can start with an extra point with such a flush. The cuts that will score 16 points with the double run will tally the same with the flush. The flush also gives us one card somewhat removed from the remaining cards (6 spot), so it is possible to escape if opponent pairs the lead. The 2-3-4-6 is one of the finest n/d pegging hands. Lead the trey and you'll often score the 15-2 and the 31-2. The 3-card 11 (2-3-6) makes that possible. It will work that way any time opponent has XXXX or some combination of fives and tens. That is very frequent. Lead the trey as it forces the 5 off the play. If you lead the deuce it will invite your opponent to drop the five spot for a count of 7 and the pegging value of the hand has been destroyed from the outset. This is a high percentage pegging opportunity. Use it and look to retain this hand often as non-dealer. The cut gives us 11 points and take any pegs offered.
james500 says: Hiya Ras, hope all's well. In answer to your question yesterday, "How can a Q-9 discard produce a crib of sixteen points?", I think that the Queen and 9 need to be of the same suit, joined in the crib by the matching 10 and Jack, with the corresponding 5 as the cut card. 3* 15/2 (6), plus a four card run (10), a five card flush (15), and the right Jack (16). Very disheartening for Q-9 to score so highly, but you're quite right, it is possible given the right circumstances.
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Bingo! Have to admit my mouth dropped open when my opponent methodically counted out those 16 points. As mentioned that was the only time I ever saw the 9-Q score more than 12. Don't want to see that very often.
Ras2829 says: BTW james500: Thanks for taking the time to figure that out and show the count for the benefit of others. The sharing of knowledge and insights relative to this wondrous game benefits all who participate or sit on the sidelines as a spectator.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 11:37 AM
A facecard with any other card can be 14 with 2 5s tossed by the dealer and the cut of a 5.
Jazzselke says: Sorry just noticed this was mentioned yesterday. Was getting trounced at a one-day tourney in Colorado.
Gougie00 says: So annoying (and disappointing) when the cribbage fairy abandons you.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 2:00 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-6___12.59+2.24+(-4.34)=10.49____40.9____37.2
2-2-3-4___12.30+2.02+(-5.95)= 8.37____40.1____33.0

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-4-6_______37.8____43.4
2-2-3-4_______42.7____44.4

The flush is 2.12pts better for expected averages and is significantly higher for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.
3______________________2.33
6______________________1.96
2______________________1.92
4______________________1.49
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 3:06 PM
Flush.