March 28, 2008

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119*-109  ?
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30%
16%
12%
11%
7%
5%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 106

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Coeurdelion
729 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 5:53 AM
I'll keep the 4 just in case I get led one. And I may just peg a go and last card.
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Guest
   
Friday 6:01 AM
scared...
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Guest
   
Friday 6:14 AM
Best chance to peg out is by pairing one of his cards. Chances are he does'nt have a jack. DMS
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*jrhatchjr
58 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 6:39 AM
But then again, you may be able to get two go's as dealer - you're guaranteed one hole anyway. The four lessens your chances to accomplish this. I'm also keeping the run as I may just be able to peg out with a run during play. Good hand, interested to see how other play it.
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Guest
   
Friday 9:14 AM
I think you need to keep the 4 here as pone likely to think this is a "safe" lead. Less likely to be holding Q or K. Maximizes chances of getting go and possibly running off J pair?
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Guest
   
Friday 9:19 AM
I stand corrected. Thinking more about it, I agree with Jim. DMS
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RASALLAM
60 votes

Joined: March 2007

   
Friday 10:03 AM
Retain 4-J-J-Q as best opportunity to get two pegs. As indicated in other comments, retained four to cover the popular four lead, not likely to get a count of eleven here although could reach 27 on which 4 would score 31. Jack and Queen in tandem are the best two consecutive X-pointers to hold for possible run. If none of that materializes as dealer got a good chance to get Jacks in as a pair and go on end of play. With non-dealer 12 holes out, a hand with 12 potential will be held if dealt regardless of what the cards look like. Would be nice to peg out on these lousy peggers rather than wait to see if opponent has the 12 points. If opponent leads a small card or a middle card am going to be a bit nervous with that Ace on the deck until see more of the hand.
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Gougie00
759 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 10:17 AM
Rare case where I break a double run. I need 2 points, and I am selling out. I will try to pair anything lead and assume I will lose if the opponent has a chance to count. Unless I can pair or unless the opponent leads a J, I play the K. He won't know I have mostly high cards. The other key here is not allowing the opponent to peg, just incase he needs a pegs.
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RASALLAM
60 votes

Joined: March 2007

Friday 10:56 AM
Just one additional thought! What are the chances that non-dealer can score 12 points on this deal? There's one chance in three. So don't despair as dealer if only one peg attained. Odds are still with you to count your hand and win. Hope don't have to turn that crib. Hey Gougie, you need to read my article titled "Double-Run Hypnosis".
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Guest
   
Friday 11:21 AM
Ras - I believe you should rethink this. Chances of getting 2 goes with this hand is very high.
Hal - Can you come up with the %'s. DMS
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Guest
   
Friday 11:30 AM
Also play K 1st. Depending on if pone Plays 3 or 4 cards 1st time around, you may either play your 3 for the run & out or perhaps trap his card for a run by leading the J next time around. Food for thought.
DMS
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HalscribCLX
671 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 12:43 PM
DMS is absolutely right. Probability of pegging two with this hand is very high indeed. All 15 combinations range from 99.6% to 99.1% with the two double runs at the top and J-J-Q-K very marginally best. I think this is one where you humans would excel and its really a matter of reading your opponent - something I can only do by building up a history of plays.

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Gougie00
759 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 6:35 PM
I doubt viagra is going to help my cribbage game any.
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tim_oregon
279 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 12:32 PM
I liked this hold, as it covers the four lead, a very popular lead in end game when available. It also gives two jacks, perfect for end of play pegs.
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