Wednesday 3:25 AM

If only it were our crib! As it is we're in a good position and A-J must go in the box. Dealing off about 105 next time we'll be in a really strong position. Can't be bad :-)

   

Wednesday 3:28 AM

Choices were A-J or A-8 . I could go totally defense but nice run to fill in (12-14 hand potential) . Crib is only about .5 value more worth the throw against hand value. I like the keep even more now

   

Wednesday 3:40 AM

went with the run and got a nice cut to help out the coming win lead the 7

   

Wednesday 3:45 AM

Went wide. (I'm beginning to sound like a mockingbird)

My gut is to lead the 8 and play off. I'll have my position when the count is over, so lets keep the dealer as far back as possible.

   

Wednesday 4:03 AM

Gotta keep the middle run, open at both ends..good odds to pair the middle card

   

Wednesday 4:55 AM

No problem throwing A-J. Let's hope for almost 100% today!(There's always someone... lol).

   

Wednesday 5:38 AM

Keep the discards far apart.

Bob

   

Wednesday 6:22 AM

20 / 20 so far

   

Wednesday 6:50 AM

This is a tough one in keeping pone from pegging if he has the right cards. Lead the 8, if pone pairs, play the 5. If pone plays 7 on our 8, I would pair it. For these reasons I almost want to hold 5 6 7 J, but if we do that we could really be burnt with the A 8 in the crib.DMS

   

Wednesday 7:37 AM

It's 100% for sure this time, but it's not over yet.
8 is the lead.

   

Wednesday 8:04 AM

34 for 34 - shut the website down for the day.

   

Wednesday 8:37 AM

Only question is what to lead with. I'd opt for the 7. +Wack+

   

Wednesday 8:38 AM

An argument could be made for A-8, but not by me. At first glance, I wanted to peg on to try to deal out, but as long as the dealer has less than 20 points this hand, I have a good shot at hand-crib-hand to go out; so, why press it. Playing defense, I'11 lead the 6. It offers me the best odds of avoiding big trouble. If the dealer plays a 9 for 15, I can still play off with the 5 (dumping the potentially dangerous 5 at the same time). Leading the 7 or 8 gives the dealer the opportunity for big points through a 4-card run, or if I pair the response, 3 of a kind. I'll leave it to everyone else to decide why leading the 6 is slightly better than the 5. Though I do have my reasons, I'm sure someone like Ras can explain why I'm wrong.

   

Wednesday 8:57 AM

I like the 6 lead and dumping the 5 if dealer makes it 15. That play's only big risk is if dealer has two more 5's, such as 9-5-5-A in which case, they peg like crazy and have a decent hand.

   

Wednesday 10:03 AM

easy toss but tough lead here. I think I'd lead the 7 or 8, and hope Opp doesn't have middle cards like we do. The 5 would be an interesting lead as well.

   

Wednesday 10:43 AM

Can't play overly defensive here as need some points. By holding 5-6-7-8 am sure of 8 points as a minimum with any cut. If I were another 8 holes down the board would play the static averages and toss 6-J which is the safest among the cards in this hand. Lumbergh like your thinking on leading the 6 until considering that it might get paired with the dealer at hole 87. By the way, I don't think you're wrong - the rationale for your lead is pretty sound. Think dealer is likley to be playing all-out offense. From that perspective prefer the 8 lead as it leaves me with the five as an escape card. If the 8 lead were paired, would make the count 21 with the play of the five. Pegs are more likely to be of benefit to the dealer in this scenario than improve my chances to win after the cut of the six.

   

Wednesday 1:14 PM

Playing a Defense strategy the expected averages and Win %'s are:

DEFENSE---Hand---Pegs---Crib---Total--W2 %--W3 %
5-6-7-8___9.65+(-3.35)+(-4.74)=1.56__29.3___68.7
5-6-7-J___8.09+(-3.43)+(-4.29)=0.37__20.6___65.8

Clearly A-J to crib is best in both respects. I will lead a he and play defense.

   

Wednesday 1:29 PM

I will lead the 7 and play defense!