Friday 3:08 AM

decided to go with what the wides variety of cuts would help course an A only gave me 2 more points but better than none I will lead the 4 in pegging

   

Friday 3:16 AM

Threw Q-K as must be the staistically best and we are early on in the match if something goes wrong with the throw.

   

Friday 3:22 AM

Someone told me about how to use odds card to your advantage but not overally helpful in this situation. Need offense and some balking ability. Situation about the same after starter so I lead the 4 and do a lot of playing off here. Still about 2/1 against me. dec

   

Friday 3:40 AM

Usually when I toss K-Q, I can conjure up a J with the cut.

With this mess, lead the 8 and try to peg. Also there is a shot to trap a 5.

   

Friday 3:50 AM

I was being far to generous same strat but 6/1 sounds about right after all of sudden that 70 position looks more critical. dec

   

Friday 5:35 AM

I give up the Q-K here.

Bob

   

Friday 6:12 AM

I was trying to make something out of the middle cards even though knowing the pone might try to salt his crib

   

Friday 6:22 AM

K-4 for me!

   

Friday 6:55 AM

Sometimes I just hope for a cut that will make sense of the mess in my hand... This would appear to be one of those times. A didn't hurt me and hopefully didn't help dealer's crib. +Wack+

   

Friday 7:11 AM

I'm not sure what the expected averages are for 4-K and Q-K but I don't think there can be much difference. I prefer 4-K as I think opponent is more likely to put in J-Q or 10-J or 5-X than A-4 or A-?. If a 5 is cut I might regret it. As it is with an Ace cut I still might regret it! I'll lead the 6 and play cautious offense.

   

Friday 9:29 AM

I'll take my chances with the 2 end cards.DMS

Friday 9:42 AM

..see all you fine people in a month..heading to the Bahamas.. where I chair the crib club called " The Nassau Nitwits"

   

Friday 10:58 AM

I'm playing as defensively as I can here. If I throw the K-Q, even with the best possible cut, 7, I'm still dealing approximately 18 points shy of position next hand. A 5 cut could be disasterous; so, I'm left with 6, 7, and 9 as the only cuts for more than 5 points. The 6 and 9 help just as much whether you keep the 8 or not. My only real hope after getting this lousy hand is to hold my opponent shy as well. I know that K-9 and Q-9 average less in my opponent's crib, but I needed to keep the 9-6 for the two points. That left me with K-8 as the most defensive throw. Now I'll lead the 4 and try to keep my opponent from pegging.

   

Friday 11:29 AM

Tossed the Q-K. They are touching cards, but at the end of the deck, so don't feel as bad. I will probably play off and lead the 4.

   

Friday 11:36 AM

I will keep the peggers and toss Q-K, lead the 8. If playing max defense would toss 9-K. If going that route, playing zero points in place of two is not big difference. For those who did not toss Q-K and chose 4-K or 8-K, what are the differences? 8-K 4.151 (1,911)scores 2 or less 38.304% of the time; 4-K 4.364 (1,461) scores 2 or less 39.493% of the time; and Q-K 4.571 (1,579) scores 2 or less 42.431% of the time. Admittedly on the other end of the scale the Q-K does score 8 or more points more frequently than those other two choices. Have a fine weekend!

   

Friday 12:07 PM

I threw 9-K ; position says we don't need a single point in this spot and dealer is already in good shape. Since max hand is 8 by tossing Q-K, I chose the decision to try and limit dealer to the maximum.

   

Friday 3:20 PM

Playing a Defense strategy the expected averages and Win %'s are:

DEFENSE---Hand---Pegs----Crib---Total---W7 %--W8 %
4-6-8-9___4.52+(-3.02)+(-4.78)=(-3.28)__5.9___12.7
4-6-9-Q___3.74+(-3.02)+(-4.12)=(-3.40)__5.0___12.4
4-6-9-K___3.74+(-3.02)+(-4.29)=(-3.57)__5.1___12.3
6-8-9-K___3.91+(-3.30)+(-4.40)=(-3.79)__5.2___12.5
6-8-9-Q___3.91+(-3.30)+(-4.57)=(-3.96)__5.2___12.7

Playing a Defense strategy it is apparent that 4-6-8-9 is the correct choice on Win %'s and dynamic expected averages. However, as others have pointed out, in this position I will adopt a SAFE strategy for maximum defense and therefore discard 8-K.

After the A cut I will lead the 4 and play Defense

Saturday 3:14 AM

This is nonsense from Halscrib CLX once again. How it can be SAFEr to discard 8-K rather than Q-K is beyond me. Noteworthy that Halscrib itself does not agree. An 8 is rarely a SAFE discard in the first place.

Saturday 2:37 PM

I listed above the usual Win % and expected averages if a Defensive strategy were adopted. My program allows for five strategies: BOLD, OFFENSE, OPTIMAL, DEFENSE and SAFE.

In this situation my calculations recommend a SAFE strategy. Under the cicumstance of a BOLD or SAFE strategy the selection of discards is made on Min/Max values.

-------------SAFE---MIN----MIN---MIN---MIN---TOSS
------------VALUE--CRIB---HAND---PEG---CUT-------
4-6-9-Q_____(-1)_____0______2___(-1)____0_____8-K
4-6-9-K_____(-1)_____0______2___(-1)____0_____8-Q
4-6-8-9_____(-2)_____0______2___(-1)__(-1)____Q-K
4-6-8-K_____(-3)_____0______0___(-1)__(-2)____9-Q
6-8-9-K_____(-3)_____0______2___(-3)____0_____4-Q
4-6-8-Q_____(-3)_____0______0___(-1)__(-2)____9-K
6-8-9-Q_____(-3)_____0______2___(-3)____0_____4-K

The Min Cut column is the sum of Min Hand and the "3-card crib" whose value is based on the deal, the discards and a "worst- case starter". Min peg is the most likely minimum rather than the absolute minimum. SAFE VALUE is the sum of Min Cut and Min Peg.

On this basis it is clear that 8-K and 8-Q are better than Q-K which is better than 9-K, 9-Q, 4-K and 4-Q