June 27, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
65*-58  ?
43%
40%
4%
4%
3%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 185
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:16 AM
I prefer the more defensive keep on the pegging and a possible more upside in the crib. dec
glmccuskey
4098 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 3:19 AM
This can be a good pegging hand against non dealer holding face cards and fives. Play the four on the face card lead. If the count goes to 24, play your three and you often net 4 pegs.
SallyAnn3 says: *Makes note to self* Gary always holds this hand ;)
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 3:21 AM
Object lesson today: 23 is a good discard?

Helps of course that TJA4 is a reasonable hand.

Main question is pegging: T to K or Q seems ok with 31-2 following TQJ Our 4 won't be trapped next time because we hold the J.

Following the T/J lead replying J/T is bad, so do we take the 4 points by pairing and 31 but risk 6? I think we do

Lead of 4 is less than 1/3 in general to be pair royal, so we could pair it, but on the other hand if we send back the T (not the J, pone rarely tosses it), then we can pair following 15-2

Following an A lead same applies except in general an A lead is more likely to be from a pair, so pairing it is riskier.

5 cut is good in general as dealer,and we can hope pone has tossed X cards.
JQT says: The 5 Card Cut is usually Dealer's Friend, unless Pone is at Hole 105 or greater, threatening to go out with First Hand Show. Anyway, with Toss (2 3) and a 5 Card Cut, I am worried that the Cut may actually help Pone as much or more than it helps us today. Thus, if Pone leads a Ten Card (or "X"), I'll look to drop our Lone Ace, and maybe catch Pone holding four Face Cards. We might even be able to PAIR the reply for (31=4)! And this should help to parry those additional points that Pone might have from the 5 Card Cut, if Pone is indeed holding all Ten Cards today. Getting rid of a "lone" Ace is never a terrible idea, even when we are the Dealer, and here, it does help to 'hedge' against a Pone who may have, after the 5 Card Cut, doubled his/her hand to Sixteen Points.
thelawnet says: Hmm, that seems like it might be a better plan. Maybe the T reply to a K though!?
thelawnet says: Just to add, I'll pair the 4 but not the A. Slightly happier at a count of 8 than a count of 2
Eolus619 says: Being able to determine potential pegging scenarios quickly Seems to me to be a significant differentiator between players. So..I appreciate these in-depth tutorials on the subject.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:26 AM
Lots of choices for the crib today: 2-3, A-4, and T-J. A chance to put 2-3 in my crib and still have a good hand remaining.
RubyTuesday
911 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
2 3 to my crib leaves me with a pretty good hand.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:48 AM
This arrangement has been dissected over the decades by all of the best players, with a definite conclusion about the best discard, which is: It Depends.

The traditional research (let us say, over the past three decades) has found that Toss (2 3) will usually out-perform Toss (X X); that is, unless we have 'touching' Ten Cards and one of them is a Jack.

Toss (T J) is therefore preferred in several situations. But I'm just not sure that this is one of them! RAS often has us looking at (0*-0), or sometimes he places us near a Critical Position Zone, as we find ourselves today at (65*-58).

We have a lead and we are dealing, and few places on at least the first half of the board would this present any problem. But at Hole 65, we are starting out a full Five Holes shy of our desired target of Hole 70. We need to step it up a bit!

Meanwhile, our Opponent just needs to gain a few holes above average as Pone in order to start Next Deal as Dealer at or beyond Hole 70, something we have already failed to accomplish.

In fact, if this were a Track and Field Event, this is when good coaching teaches a runner NEVER to peek back over his or her shoulder. Because, yes, the Opponent will be RIGHT THERE!

And so, while I wouldn't necessarily trade positions with our Opponent here, I don't think we have much to brag about, either. It would really help if we played this hand precisely.

And this is when I feel most comfortable with the 'tried and true' Toss (2 3) discard, which gives our hand a good opportunity for, while perhaps not the most pegging, but some reliable and safe pegging. And it also energizes our Crib with one of the best discards in Cribbage.

Toss (T J) is a better choice in several 'corner' cases with this arrangement, and it maybe could work well today. But in this position, I feel a lot more comfortable after Toss (2 3). This well-balanced approach should allow us to 'stay in the fight' for a positional advantage, something we've not yet been able to secure in this game.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:10 AM
As John mentions above, I seem to recall reading on here that 2-3 is the better discard from this sort of hand unless the X cards are T-J or Q-J.
Not entirely sure if I'm misremembering though, so I've stuck with the more "conventional" 2-3.
mfetchCT425
1397 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:20 AM
I like the pegging potential of this hand as glmccuskey has described above. Every cut in the deck improves this hand and we have the touching faces in the crib. If the faces were gap/non-touching ‘faces’ such as 10-Q, J-K, 10-K, or on the end as Q-K, I would discard 2-3.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:22 AM
Pretty standard fare. If there was a flush to consider, I may have gone that way. The problem with A4XX and 23 in the crib is 6789 does nothing for either the hand or crib, and you might end up with a measly 4 + 2.

I'd like to start next deal at hole 80. Since I can only account for 11 points, peg aggressive.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 7:08 AM
Well we had discussion on this hand about 6 weeks ago. Generally will throw 23 with this type of configuration, but with 10J or JQ, the consensus was those touching facecards should be the exceptions, as pointed out by JQT and Mike. So a change of thinking on my part, as I believe Rob and Ras both also agreed with this strategy. And the bonus of the pegging strategy enumerated by Gary.
SallyAnn3 says: uh oh--3 "idols" go for the low peggers. hmmmmmm
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 7:08 AM
Maybe a-2-3-4 is better for pure hand+crib+pegs, though I doubt it. But regardless this is a defensive position, +21/-2, and this is better for defense. We don't want our opponent to get near 70.
horus93 says: We are not five points shy of our target. Pone is two points shy of his. If the score were 91*-88 would you consider yourself short or ahead? Apply 26 theory, you're clearly ahead.
horus93 says: We could score a mere five or six points, either at this position or at 91*-88, and still have a very good shot at winning as long as we hold the opponent back.
horus93 says: Count it out on your fingers if you don't believe me. The dealer averages 16 points, pone averages 10.
thelawnet says: 65+16+10 = 91. 58+10+16 = 84
JQT says: The odds of winning from (91*-84) are highly dependent upon your cards, because both players are shy of the desired position: even with a very good hand, at this position your winning odds would be perhaps 60% or 70% at best; with a very poor hand, the odds would be way below 50%, and as low as 40%. Once you get deep into a positional zone, only then do your chances of winning remain very high IN SPITE OF the hand you are dealt. That is the key in today's puzzle: We have a good hand, and so of course we wish to maximize it, but most of all, we cannot afford to squander it!
thelawnet says: We expect to get 16*/10 points. Let's say we did badly and that was 8*/10. Now the score is 99-94*. We're still winning. *In general* the closer the score gets to 121, the more important a lead is, but as you say once you get into positional end game play, that isn't necessarily the case - we'd be much happier dealing at 109*-102 than at 116*-109. Anyway, the further we are from 121 the more chances there are for things go very wrong or very right. Play is never going to go 16-10, 26-26, 42-36, 52-52, so we need to take into account the inevitability of variance if we still have a lot of board left to cover. In general if we're dealing 7 points ahead we're winning at ANY position on the board.
Jazzselke
2584 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 8:01 AM
Adding 26 to both hands, wouldn't the analagous position be 91*-84 (which actually strengthens your argument)?
Jazzselke says: ...for Horus93.
Gougie00 says: It can be argued that its more like 25 for the dealer. Any decent pone won't let you peg.
wasa
3015 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 8:10 AM
I always love tossing 5-5, 2-3, 5-J, or 7-8 in my crib. Gougie makes a good point about the 6-7-8-9 but with 3 "extra" cards working with my crib, mathematically I think the 2-3 is best. Will it overcome the advantage A-2-3-4 has with pegging? I think so.
Gougie00 says: what if the pone tosses something like 2-9? The 2-3-5 combined with that 2-9 is a crippling 2 points. K-9, another favorite throttle toss, is worth only 4.
HalscribCLX
5315 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:21 PM
At 65*-58 playing an Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Pone's
Defense__Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W4 %____W4 %
A-4-10-J__6.78+(-2.00)+6.44=11.22____27.7____57.5
A-2-3-4___8.09+(-2.20)+4.47=10.36____27.1____53.7
2-3-10-J__7.17+(-2.15)+5.25=10.27____23.7____54.1

Defense______L4 %____L4 %
A-4-10-J______10.1____27.3
A-2-3-4_______12.2____30.8
2-3-10-J______10.3____29.4

2-3 is best for expected averages by 0.86pt and is appreciably best for Win %s a nd slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
SallyAnn3
907 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 4:16 PM
Putting a 5 into my crib. 2-3 since the ace gives me a magic 11
Ras2829
5151 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:16 PM
Have submitted this or similar puzzles 2-3 times per year. with opponent at hole 58 needing to deal from 3rd Street CPZ (69-73) and dealer short of that zone by four holes, def., def., def. wanting to limit n/d to 8-9 points or fewer. Would pair a 10 or Jack as a lead as if tripled RAS scores 31-2picking up four pegs while giving up six. Otherwise would not play on the lead. The A-4-10-J does a little better than A-2-3-4 if choosing defense pegging strategy. If were at 69-73, would choose an offensive pegging strategy and the A-2-3-4 would flip-flop as the better choice. So another element enters the picture with choice of pegging strategy. HalscribCLX shows the numbers. Be flexible enough to retain cards that support posiiton and chosen pegging strategy.