June 30, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
68*-61  ?
66%
14%
8%
5%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 222
Rosemarie44
1618 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:06 AM
I seem to remember that this is a really good hand to hold. So the likely toss to our crib will be the pair of eights. Expected averages favor this discard and retention with today's hand.
mrob2199
373 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 3:17 AM
Not a huge fan of keeping the 2345 run but in today’s hand I see it as the only option-the 5-8 discard doesn’t really appeal to me either so hopefully the cut will hit either the hand or the crib-a 6 or an 8 cut could help both-the ace cut is a dud for this hand so we will have to peg aggressively to make up for lost points
thelawnet
197 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Tuesday 3:19 AM
We're winning today at 7 points ahead and dealing . With a nice hand winning a bit more.

Can expect to be next hand around 86-71*.

Can see an argument in some spots for 2348 as it's more defensive for pegging. But not worried about trading runs with pone here
thelawnet
197 votes

Joined: January 2020

   
Tuesday 3:19 AM
We're winning today at 7 points ahead and dealing . With a nice hand winning a bit more.

Can expect to be next hand around 86-71*.

Can see an argument in some spots for 2348 as it's more defensive for pegging. But not worried about trading runs with pone here
JQT
2883 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:31 AM
We are Ahead and Dealing: Yippee!

But we're Two Holes 'shy' of our 'would-be' Third Street 'target' of Hole 70; meanwhile, Pone is fewer than Ten Holes (which incidentally is Pone's Average) from this same 'target' Hole 70.

This card arrangement we dealt ourselves today is not too terribly awful; but had it been, I might contradict some recent thoughts that had been posited about the concept that we could ever actually be "Ahead and Dealing" ... and LOSING!

The fact is, with a much worse arrangement of cards today, I probably would have few qualms about exchanging sides of the board with our Opponent! But, once seeing our cards, I think I'll stay put, Thank You!

But I also think I'll disagree with the majority: maybe not because they're wrong and I'm right, but just to show that another 'outside the box' choice is sometimes possible for Our Box, perhaps at the mere 'cost' of a fraction of a point in order to try something a little different, something that could maybe 'rattle' our Opponent.

This also therefore doesn't mean that this is a simple or trivial discard decision, however. Quite the contrary: it's a challenging puzzle! We should probably look at Toss (5 8), Toss (2 5), and (gasp!) even Toss (8 8)! (It's perfectly okay to look at an awful discard; as long as that's all we do, is LOOK at it! I'm half kidding, folks.)

"Hey," I hear people scream, "don't take that Toss (8 8) discard so cavalierly! It's a PAIR, and it's POINTS!" And you're right, and it's not the end of the world if we don't get a 5 Card into our Crib. But for a fraction of a point, give or take, I'm going to err on the side of 'stoking' my Crib (is that even legal??) with a 5 Card if and when I can. It's one of the worst of my many, many faults.

I am typically really wanting to get that 5 Card into our Crib. I have also said that any time we are the Dealer and CAN Toss (2 3), we could probably do so with good results. But today's puzzle is challenging that notion. Still, we could do much, much worse! Yes, I'm talking about YOU, Toss (8 2): All you do is rhyme (and you do even that poorly)!

If I abandon the masses who Toss (8 8), it's surely got to be between Toss (2 5) and Toss (5 8) today, but which?! I've called the Deuce and the Five Card "Oil and Vinegar" lots of times; they just don't mix well! But Toss (5 8) is going to require "lots of shaking" to turn it into anything tasteful, too!

I'm stuck on Toss (5 8), as the RUN has me a little be enchanted and transfixed today. One should never fall in love with a discard, but I am smitten. To say we are actually winning this game is merely an illusion, especially after seeing that Ace Cut, which adds a lowly Three Points to our Hand, and does absolutely NOTHING for our moribund Crib. Let's hope that Pone is made equally miserable by that Ace Cut! And wait 'til we see the look in her/his eyes when we flip over that 5 Card! We might even have Two Points!
dec
4928 votes

Joined: April 2008

Tuesday 3:54 AM
Going for a dozen this way either/or the main hand and crib. Pegging could be very on or very off. dec
Andy (muesli64)
1772 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 4:34 AM
Happy with 8-8. JQT has some good points though
Gougie00
4325 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 4:49 AM
88 in your own crib often nets just 2 points. I'll toss 58 and hold the peggers.
james500
2546 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 5:12 AM
5-8 from me, but 8-8, 5-2 and 3-4 all seem reasonable to consider.
3-4 is probably hurt too much by negative delta though, with 2-5-8-8 out of circulation.
mfetchCT425
584 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:35 AM
Like the pegging flexibility of this hand with the magic 11 and three low pegging cards. I think 5-8 is in the same ball park as 2-5 and 8-8.
Eolus619
27 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Tuesday 6:26 AM
Considered...8-8, 5-8 & 2-5. 8-8 to the crib seemed to have the most cut cards for helping my hand although it often is not a big point better in the crib.
JRCeagle78
900 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Although I lose some pegging flexibility with this hand, I should be okay. The Ace does nothing for the crib so I will presume that it will hold only the 2 points I put in. I will probably take any pegging that is offered because a strong defense may be too detrimental.
Jazzselke
1514 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 7:00 AM
Maybe not one of my best submissions although some recent commenters opting for 2348. My original reason for posting was to highlight the quandary about 88. Ras mentions that 30% of the time it is only 2 points to your own crib. To me it sometimes feels like an under-estimate! But of course we tend to only remember those instances. Sometimes the opponent will throw 7X or 8X. And in those cases maybe the cut also helps. Savor those cases!
wasa
1655 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 7:27 AM
I really like putting the 5 in my crib, since any hand/crib with a 5 (or 2 cards totaling 5) guarantee me 2 points. The 2-3-4 is a good run, and pegs well. As others say, 8-8 is often only 2 points in my crib so I'd rather put in a 5 than a pair of 8s.
dgergens
633 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Tuesday 7:58 AM
How interesting. My toss has a 13% vote, but not a single commentator has chosen that hand. I was overdue anyway to be alone again. I wanted the fer sure 8 points, and since no X cards in my hand, hoping a few end up in my crib. Pegging has potential I think with this hand.
Ras2829
3784 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 9:48 AM
As jazzselke points out RAS is not a fan of the 8-8 discard. N/D seldom will toss a 7 so you get the 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, 6-Q, 6-10, or 6-J. Without significant help from the starter card, the crib tallies two points 30.313%. Am never crazy about keeping a five in my hand as dealer for a single point when that five spot averages nearly 6 points in crib. With this hand thouhg, the 8-8 is the best choice as discard. Based on my scant empirical evidence, the 2-3-4-5 keep has the edge whether choosing offense or defense. MY choice is offense since am at hole 68 (3rd street CPZ 69-73) and will peg agrerssively. Bruce will get to your E-mails in the next couple of days (have been under the weather and spent one day in the emergency room). Normally respond to E-mails the day received. Always appreciate hearing from those with an interest in this womnderful game. BTW the averafges for 8-8 to dealer crib is 5.496 (1,501) 20/91. The 5-8 actually has the edge on crib averages with 5.564 (550) 16/91. The fact that 2-3-4-5 improves with every cut gives that 4-card run the edge and the pegging is better for cards of low rank and in sequence.
SallyAnn3
102 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Tuesday 10:11 AM
Sigh. Going against the grain. I like 2-3-4-8 jold, and am still putting a 5 into my crib. 8-8 doesn't seem to amount to much in the crib most of the time.
RubyTuesday
468 votes

Joined: January 2019

   
Tuesday 11:07 AM
I thought about 5 8 but decided to keep the four card run and toss 8 8 for reasons mentioned above.
Coeurdelion
4245 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 2:59 PM
I think it's either 2-3-4-5 (8-8), 2-5-8-8 (3-4), and 3-4-8-8 (2-5):

2-3-4-5: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 9¾pts

2-5-8-8: 6pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.91) = 11pts

3-4-8-8: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.45) = 11½pts

Potential:

2-3-4-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 88 + 16xXs = 38 cuts.

2-5-8-8: Improves with 222, 555, 7777, 88 + 16xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 222, 555, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts.

3-4-8-8: Improves with 222, 333, 444, 555, 7777, 88 = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts short of positional hole and Pone is well behind so I'll play Offense to try to reach 96pts for our next deal.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-4-5 will peg best.

Summary:

3-4-8-8 has the best starting value at 11½pts but has a low number of cuts for improvement. 2-5-8-8 is only ½pt lower for starting value but has more cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 10/12pts. However 2-3-4-5 starts with 1¼pts less but has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 7-12pts and also it should peg best. Will this catch up the 1¼pts? I think it will so I'll throw 8-8.