July 11, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
40*-45  ?
33%
22%
17%
13%
5%
5%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 198
james500
3918 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:04 AM
I'll experiment with Q-5Sp.
A case of double run "hopenosis" maybe?
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:04 AM
It is between 5-Q or 4-4 to our crib. Expected averages are close (hand+crib). Better pegging hand and 5-Q to our crib will make any difference between this hold and 2-5-5-Q
Rosemarie44 says: after will make, insert "up"
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:23 AM
Our POSITION is very dire today, with Pone about Ten Holes AHEAD of where we would like Pone to be, and finding us as the Dealer perhaps Five Holes SHORT of where we ought to be!

Only Toss (5 Q) makes sense to me here, although some may try Toss (2 4). We don't want to fall into the Toss (4 4) trap or the Toss (2 Q) pitfall here, either of which promise to only compound our problems.

The Deuce Cut means we are on the Cutting Block and perhaps in real jeopardy of being SKUNKED if we don't catch a good tailwind very soon.
Eolus619 says: JQT...without taking up too much of your time would you please expand on the 4-4 trap comment. Looking @ it simply for me is the reason i have just moved two points from hand to the crib and have now missed out on a run possibility. Thx
JQT says: You have actually already answered it to a large degree in your posting (below): Toss (4 4) does seem to yield a good total overall, but after so many of the Cuts, we see that it's far from the best way to split our Hand and Crib today, and thus it's a bit of a trap if we do it.
Eolus619 says: Thank you for this reply and all the detail you provide in your other posts
dec
6353 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:45 AM
If we get a good crib we could be positionally ahead. Four spade lead. dec
Ras2829 says: HI dec: Why show your hand so early in the play?
thelawnet says: Haha yeah we're not leading!
dec says: my turn to flub up today.. no penalty maybe I can use it as an advantage by showing it for later pegs? dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:39 AM
Yes, 5-Q matched.
Eolus619
1337 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 5:41 AM
Hmmmmm...JQT has stated the position problem. So..what to do...5-5, Q-5, 4-4 or 2-4? The highest avg. hand is discard 4-4. The highest avg. crib is discard the 5-5. As Rosemarie said..discarding the Q-5 helps pegging with the kept hand. Whew...the deuce cut doesn’t solve my CPZ problems For sure.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:59 AM
Don't normally like to break up fives but we still have an open-ended double run. If later in the game and a serious positional deficit might have to consider the Hail Mary option.
RubyTuesday
910 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 6:21 AM
I’m pleased to agree with you all, and your reasons for throwing 5S QS.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 8:00 AM
5 in the crib should do more than it would do sitting in my hand.
thelawnet
262 votes

Joined: January 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 9:11 AM
I like the Q5 toss bigly, and it helps it leaves us with a half decent hand.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 10:21 AM
Don't get hopenotized. Checking myself on Liam I still like this choice. A higher min by 2 points is worth more than 0.2 in expected hand+crib averages imo.
thelawnet says: Better pegging with 2445 as well....
dgergens says: No hypnosis, I wanted the touching 5/4s.
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 11:49 AM
I alone here missed the long shot flush possibility - what is it 1 / 700 ?
Ras2829 says: Hi Mark6: The flush is worth going for in crib if not giving up points to do so. The value of unsuited 5-Q to crib is worth .04 (hundredths) of a point less than the same cards suited. In 15 years of tracking, crib flushes occurred 1/728 or about once in each 80 gamnes played. As a GR club Director paid $5 for them so suspect that few went unreported.
thelawnet says: Odds of 3 random cards out of 10 remaining being spades is 1 in 127. Actual odds should be only slightly lower than that, in that the issue of suited discards is only really likely to come into play when pone has a choice between two identical (but for suit) discards
Gougie00
5725 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:27 PM
Tried to shoot the moon. 8 is good though.
dgergens says: You got 10 if you count the 2's in your crib.
SallyAnn3
904 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 3:56 PM
Still start with 6...more potential my crib...still a double run possibility.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 4:08 PM
I think it's between 4-5-5-Q (2-4), 2-5-5-Q (4-4), 2-4-4-5 (5-Q) and perhaps 4-4-5-5 (2-Q) is worth looking at:

4-5-5-Q: 6pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.52) = 10½pts

2-5-5-Q: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 11¾pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

4-4-5-5: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.52) = 7½pts

Potential:

4-5-5-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14/16pts with AAAA, 3333, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 29 cuts.

2-5-5-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 55, 8888 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12/14pts with 3333, 55, 8888 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.4% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 9999 = 19 cuts.

4-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/16/24pts with AAAA, 222, 3333, 44, 55, 6666 + 15xXs = 34 cuts.

Position:

We're 4pts short of 2nd street positional hole. Pone is already there plus 1pt but 15pts short of where they would like to be. I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-4-4-5 will peg best with all low cards and a 3-card magic eleven

Summary:

2-5-5-Q has the best starting vale by 1¼pts over 4-5-5-Q and 2-4-4-5. 4-5-5-Q has fewer cuts for improvement but 29 cuts for 10-16pts while 2-4-4-5 has more cuts for improvement and 19 cuts for 8-14pts. I think these will be close but 2-4-4-5 should peg best so I'll throw the suited 5-Q.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:16 PM
At 40*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

______________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
2-4-4-5D__7.70+3.67+6.44=17.81___37.9____24.0
4-5-5-Q___9.61+3.30+4.23=17.14___36.5____23.6
2-5-5-Q___8.61+3.09+5.43=17.13___36.6____24.5
4-4-5-Q___7.17+3.26+5.32=15.75___31.2____19.6
2-4-4-Q___4.17+2.96+8.52=15.65___32.1____20.6
4-4-5-5___9.30+3.09+3.24=15.63___32.7____20.3

Offense_____L6 %____L7 %
2-4-4-5D_____53.9____56.3
4-5-5-Q______52.3____56.6
2-5-5-Q______51.2____55.9
4-4-5-Q______52.9____61.0
2-4-4-Q______51.8____59.8
4-4-5-5______51.6____59.5

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

2-4-4-5D is best for expected averages by 0.67pt and is slightly best for Win %s. 2-5-5-Q is lowest for Loss %s but even so I'll select the suited 5-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:20 PM
It's off., off., off. for RAS at all points to consider (looking at peg palcement, deciding retention/discard, and after seeing the starter card. Nothing for me to defend here so will play on the lead. After seeng the starter card, know that I have a minimum of 11 points - so 3-4 pegs would be a real boost. Go for them. The 4-4-5-5 is the hand to play when non-dealer. Only play 4-4-5-5 if the only four points you can find as dealer or when needing a "kller hand" to have a chance for a win. Well, this choice is up to 35% at this time. That means that 65% made some other choice. Coeurdelion, per usual does a great job showing the rationale for this choice and choice of strategy.
Ras2829 says: So does HalscribCLX although the cribbot had not posted when I keyed my words. In HalscribCLX analysis you can see that the 2-4-4-5 overcomes nearly 2 points less in plotential hand score with greater pegging and a much higher crib value.
Ras2829 says: Position is a great foundation for all crib decisions. Needed to be at hole 43-47 2nd Street CPZ to deal. RAS has the deck 3 holes short of that. Being short three holes in crib is often a very big deal. The ealier we go to make up that deficit, the easier it becomes. So that understanding determines choice of strategy, hand to retain, discard to make, and whether to play on the lead or off once seing the starter card. Had the starter card been a 4 or 5, would have known of far more points than I do with the 2 on the deck. Had the cut been 4 or 5 would have chosen an optimal pegging strategy.
Ras2829 says: The cut of a trey or six spot would have also caused me to downshift from offense pegging choice to optimal. Would have played off the lead if the cut had been 3/4/5/6.
thelawnet says: 5% chose the other 2445