Wednesday 3:07 AM

The flush is very tempting today but from these position points the combination of keeping the 6 point hand while theoretically balikihg the dealers crib with 2-9 must rule the day-lead the 2 and play the 7 ic dealer makes the count 12-we might get a quick 2 for the 31-we should be around the 95 mark after the hand so let’s try to keep dealer as far away from the 110 spot as we can

   

Wednesday 3:18 AM

The Flush was my first choice. Like the starter card. Peg defensively easily with the Flush and we are at around 97 mark. Let's hope dealer doesn't toss a 3 into his crib.

   

Wednesday 3:57 AM

Don't want to risk 2-2 or 6-7 at this point. I'll try the (hopefully) safe 2-9.

2 lead.

   

Wednesday 4:24 AM

More about what they can count here. So hopefully no help in crib and lead the safe two lead here. dec

   

Wednesday 5:11 AM

Holding a third 2 makes me feel a bit better about the 22 toss, but those 3s ....

Wednesday 5:48 AM

Seduced by the flush!

   

Wednesday 5:55 AM

I think we need to try and hold their crib down from this position so will toss 2-9. We still have a decent hand with pegging potential including a 3-card magic 11. Like the 2d lead here which may utilize the magic 11 for 31-2 later on in the pegging as Rob mentions above and also keeps a flush fake in order.

   

Wednesday 6:15 AM

First...I am trying to make this a three hand game..this and 2 more with me having first count on 3rd hand . 2-9 and 2-2 were my considered choices. If I discard 2-9 it seems that I was reducing ..on average...my hand by 2 and dealers crib by 2 ..roughly. So discarded the 2-2 to keep more points in my hand. I voted and then read what Rob posted . When I considered the 2-9 I wasn’t eloquent and experienced enough in my own mind to sway me to his decision. But I clearly see his logic.

   

Wednesday 6:17 AM

Need to play defense but also try to get to 95+. I think that’s the best way to accomplish that. I’ll lead the two of diamonds.

   

Wednesday 6:29 AM

First order of business is to play our position. Opponent needs 27 points (if I can count). If 26 is average, I need to make sure that they get less than average. Hence, no 2-2 or 6-7 going into their crib!

   

Wednesday 7:24 AM

Balk the Crib

   

Wednesday 7:32 AM

Toss (2 9) is safest, but it 'costs' us Two Points, and we need those extra points today!

Meanwhile, Toss (6 7) is about as costly as Toss (2 2), especially if we take Negative Delta into account since we have three Deuces.

Thus, I'll Toss (2 2) and retain the FLUSH, which should be better during the pegging. Lead the 6 Card.

   

Wednesday 7:42 AM

This hand should put us around the 98-99 hole with a cautious play.

If I decided to toss the 9-2, the lead card would be the 2. With this hand I'll lead the 6 and hopefully use the 2 for pegging later.

   

Wednesday 7:45 AM

DEF first. Must do best we can to keep this dealer below 110. At other board positions, the flush might well be the way to go but even the best cuts are not going to put us out before current dealer if they reach 110+

   

Wednesday 9:40 AM

It's our next deal. So helping our foe here by tossing 22 isn't a good idea I think. Better slow things down with 29. After the cut we have trash.

Will hope for a better hand next time. But we want to lay it down! Won't do that if dealer gets too close to 121 here

   

Wednesday 2:35 PM

Perhaps three possible keeps but I do not think 2-2-2-9 (6-7) is likely - 2-2-2-9 (6-7), 2D-2-6-7 (2-9) and 2D-6-7-9 (2-2):

2-2-2-9: 8pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = +2pts

2D-2-6-7: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = +1¼pts

2D-6-7-9: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = +1½pts

Potential:

2-2-2-9: Improves with 2, 4444, 666, 999 = 11 cuts = 11/46 = 23.9% up to 12/14/20pts with 2, 4444, 999 = 8 cuts.

2D-2-6-7: Improves with 2, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 11/12pts with 2, 5555, 666, 777, 888 = 14 cuts.

2D-6-7-9: Improves with 2, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 11/12/14pts with 2, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 18 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is 2pts short of 3rd street positional hole and we only 6pts so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think playing Defense 2-2-2-9 may peg best.

Summary:

2-2-2-9 has the best starting value by ½pt and the highest maximum at 20pts but it has few cuts for improvement and 8 for 12-20pts. The flush has many more cuts for improvement and 18 for 11-14pts. I think 2D-6-7-9 will also peg reasonably playiong Defense. So I'll throw the black 2s.

   

Wednesday 3:20 PM

At 88-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr
Defense__Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
2D-2-6-7__8.09+(-2.37)+(-4.32)=1.40____12.0____37.0
2D-6-7-9_10.15+(-2.78)+(-5.98)=1.39____19.7____38.0
2-2-2-9___9.17+(-2.76)+(-5.72)=0.69____11.6____33.6

Defense_____L2 %____L3 %
2D-2-6-7_____34.9____55.2
2D-6-7-9_____44.6____53.2
2-2-2-9______41.6____58.8

2D-2-6-7 is best for expected averages but only by 0.01pt more than the flush. The flush is very much best for Win %s and although 2D-2-6-7 is lower for Loss %s I'll decide based on the Win %s. So I'll select 2S-2C to discard.

After the KD cut I'll lead the 2 and play Optimally (cautiously offense):

Lead_______Net Pegging Pts.
2______________(-0.92)
6______________(-0.95)
7______________(-1.19)
9______________(-1.29)

   

Wednesday 3:34 PM

Since choosing an optimal pegging strategy needing the deal at 4th Street CPZ (95-99), will play the flush for 8 points. If choosing a defense pegging strategy would have discarded unsuited 2-9. Lead the deuce and split the 6-7 second card played if that looks feasible. After seeing the starter card, knowing that I have 9 points, will take peg points that seem reasonably safe.