Sunday 3:04 AM

Like an 8cut here

   

Sunday 3:11 AM

While our winning chances remain small, I have often said that almost any time we are Dealing near the "corner" of the entry to Fourth Street, we have a chance.

Keep (3 3 5 7) and Toss (7 9) gives us both a stronger Hand and a stronger Crib than Toss (3 9), and I am loathe to bury the PAIR via Toss (7 7), thus it's Toss (7 9) to our Crib.

   

Sunday 3:14 AM

Could start with a six point hand, (and I'd prefer to discard 7-9 to 3-9 if I was going to do so), but I'll try to share those six points around.

5-7 is immediately helped by 3,5,6,7,8 and 16*X, 31/46 which is about 2/3. Reasonable to think that 2 of the 3 other cards contributing to the crib will create points then?

   

Sunday 3:43 AM

How about a four cut and an eight-nine discard. Add in four or five pegging points. I believe we be on the end bar here. dec

   

Sunday 5:05 AM

In live play I'd toss 79 very quickly. Why ?

339 has only limited synergy compared with 7533 or 7753.

Keeping the 5 with no points from it seems a waste. 79 as a toss is not great but fairly obviously better than 93

   

Sunday 5:48 AM

We are in bad shape. Most likely will have to get out in 3 hands plus pegging. I’m on all out offense for the rest of this game.

   

Sunday 5:51 AM

7-9. No doubt.

   

Sunday 5:54 AM

I don't really see an alternative. 3357 and hope for a 34567. The 79 in the crib probably won't get any help. If the opponent has faces and fives, chalk up an "L".

Its still technically summer here in northern Massachusetts, but its 36 degrees! I had to put a 2nd blanket on the bed.

   

Sunday 6:15 AM

We are obviously going to need some good fortune to pull this one out-this hold provides us with 2 shots at a 12 hand-a 3 or 4 cut,albeit we already have 2 of the threes in our hand already-this hold also enables us to peg 6 points on a pone 4 picture hand,which we sorely need being 34 out-the 77 in the crib could generate into 6 or 8 with some good fortune

   

Sunday 6:20 AM

Tossed the two 7s since I still am guaranteed 6 and the two 7s could get an easy 6 or more in the crib. Every cut helps the hand or crib except a 2.

   

Sunday 7:12 AM

Went with my original thought--if it wasn't for it being cwed's puzzle, I wouldn't have thought twice. When I did think about it more, I almost tossed the 7-7--still keeping 6 points with both hand and crib. Then I decided to stick with plan A after all

   

Sunday 7:30 AM

Tough row to hoe but we always have to try. Hope for one middle card from our opponent and one from the cut. And a 3-card 11 for the pegging.

   

Sunday 9:39 AM

CONGRATS on GOLD in yesterday's eCribbage ACC tourney--especially having to beat Les :)

   

Sunday 3:11 PM

I think it must be between 3-3-5-7 and 3-5-7-7:

3-3-5-7: 6pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 10¼pts

3-5-7-7: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 9¾pts

Potential:

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 77 = 15 cuts.

3-5-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 9/10/12pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 = 19 cuts.

Position:

We need to be atat least 111pts to give us a 50% chance of getting out next deal. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think both of these hands will peg well but 3-3-5-7 has a 3-card magic eleven so I think will peg better.

Summary:

3-3-5-7 has a starting value higher by ½pt and has more cuts for improvement with a higher maximum at 14pts. It does have fewer cuts for a good/very good hand but it also should peg better. So I'll throw a 7-9.

   

Sunday 3:52 PM

At 87*-100 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-3-5-7____9.04+3.65+3.91=16.60____0.1____8.5
3-3-5-9____6.65+3.63+5.84=16.12____0.1____8.5
3-5-7-7____8.91+3.41+3.46=15.78____0.0____5.9

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
3-3-5-7________2.1____70.7
3-3-5-9________1.7____71.6
3-5-7-7________1.7____71.6

3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.48pt. It is equal for Win %s with 3-3-5-9 but slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Sunday 6:36 PM

While dealing short at the end of third street, I probably don't need to worry about getting skunked. But I do need to maximize my hand and crib so I have a chance to win on the next deal. Several options start me with four points (toss 3-3) or six points (toss 5-7, 7-7, or 7-9). About the only kabangi cut that will help both hand and crib is to hold 3-3-5-7 and get a 6 or 7 cut. It all boils down to the cut and how effectively I can peg. In real life, I tossed 7-9, got a 7-cut, had a 12-hand + 2-crib--and lost the game.