September 21, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by duke62
115-118*  ?
34%
23%
13%
7%
5%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 214
duke62There seem to be eleven legitimate choices. Five ways to guarantee hold/cut for enough. Another six holds for 4 or 5 points that could leave us short, but may improve defensive pegging. One or two points difference plus or minus in either our score or opponents would change this puzzle significantly. Always need a bit of luck thrown in when dealer is only 3 out.
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 3:03 AM
Leading the 3
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:11 AM
Try to avoid cutting an X card so that I don't need to peg anything.

Dealer will be more likely to hold smaller cards if available, so I'll try leading my 7. Maybe they'll reply with a 4?
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:29 AM
Unlike Saturday's puzzle from two days ago, the Dealer Opponent only needs Three Points to win today, and thus the likelihood that our Opponent shall peg out is very high.

But to compound our troubles, we sit at Hole 115, needing Six Points to win: therefore, the Dealer is One Hole CLOSER, and yet we stand One Hole FURTHER AWAY! Tortuous!

The odds that we could ever peg Six Points, while only giving up Two or Fewer Points, is extremely remote. Thus, we should almost certainly (in the absence of a Jack Cut; yes, this Horror Show could actually get worse...) take our chances with DEFENSIVE PEGGING and First Hand Show, be that as (remote as) it may.

Being dealt a Long RUN of six cards doesn't simplify our task, at least not seemingly, although to secure those Six Points, it might appear beneficial that we should need to hold four contiguous cards.

But I would not be reluctant to hold a hand valued at Five Points, risking that we need to peg One Hole (more) should we miss our Cut: IF such a hand could peg more defensively.

Alternatively, since there exists a nearly 9% chance that a Jack shall be Cut, we had better be prepared to 'throw caution to the wind' and at least feign an attempt at pegging those Six Holes, unopposed (the odds that we'll be struck by lightning might be higher; but still, the odds are above ZERO!)

For instance, if Keep (3 6 7 8) and Toss (4 5) could help us peg defensively, I think we could risk a Ten Card (or "X") Cut and still demand that we peg One Hole, if indeed it's a better hand to hold. (I use this however as an example, not quite knowing whether it would or could be such a better pegging hand.)

Another example might be Keep (3 4 5 8) and Toss (6 7), after say an Ace Cut. In fact, it seems to be a far better example, since now all of those Sixteen Ten Card (or "X") Cuts would add a few possibly much-needed points! If we want to "take a walk on the Wild Side" we could even consider Keep (3 5 6 7) and Toss (4 8), but that's too close to the 'deep end' of the pool, even for me to ponder.

We decided upon Keep (3 4 5 Q) a few days ago, but as I recall, Keep (3 4 5 8) was not entirely terrible, and so perhaps it's as good as we can muster today. Let's Toss (6 7), and after the Deuce Cut, we'll lead the 4 Card. What have we got to lose?!
dec says: 9 different choices so far.. I await some varying opinions on how to play this hand. Luck and who your opponent is my only comments to make at this time. These are the games that push the win pct up. dec
Eolus619 says: hmmmmm...regardless of discard choice the strategy seems to have to be defensive pegging. Only 4% of the vote so far has chosen NOT to hold a lone five. I await what Hal has to say and to learn more about why this risk of holding a lone five, particularly in a run, is acceptable from other posters more experienced than I am.
JQT says: Yes, we certainly look to defend, however: IF a Jack is Cut, or; IF the Dealer scores on the first card we play today, then in either case, the Dealer shall be at Hole 120 and also be 100% assured of scoring One Point (more) for either a "go" or for Last Card. Remember, that One Point that the Dealer is always guaranteed to peg is NEVER diminished if and when the Dealer scores upon our Lead Card! Thus, if this early scoring (or a Jack Cut) occurs, our ONLY path to WIN is that we MUST peg out BEFORE the Dealer can play his or her final card. Therefore, it may not be a bad idea to have some kind of PLAN that, if at all possible, can peg Six Holes, unopposed. Normally, this would entail using any TWO of those three key cards: a 4, 5, or 6 Card, during which if if we hold any TWO of these and one of them is led by us, it can indeed do just that by 'snagging' a 4-5-6 RUN for (15-6)! But alas, it won't work in this case, since in order to arrive at such a juncture in the process of pegging, a "go" or (31-2) by the Dealer would have had to precede such a final volley of pegging by us as Pone. In essence, if either a Jack is Cut or if the Dealer scores on our Lead Card, we can now theoretically only WIN by obtaining a "go" and then by pegging either: a PAIR followed by a RUN, or by pegging a succession of RUNS, one followed by another, back-to-back. And it is for this reason that I prefer to hold the 'small' card 3-4-5 RUN today, as I think it stands a better chance of 'fitting in' at or below a Count of Thirty-One. For instance, if Dealer has played a 5 Card to bring the Count up to say Eighteen, and we PAIR the 5 Card and score (23-2), and then the Dealer says "go," now we can play our 4 Card followed by our 3 Card and additionally score (30-4), thus pegging Six Holes unopposed.
Eolus619 says: The examples in your explanation never crossed my mind...whew ..and thanks
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 3:59 AM
My starter card is the 4.
cribbagepogo says: You are toast if they match.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:29 AM
Must have a play off card. So will take 5 and peg 1!!
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Monday 6:13 AM
Hoping that dealer doesn’t get a J as his turn up and fails to peg more than his guaranteed one point.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 6:35 AM
Really nice puzzle Marty! I’ve changed my mind on this it seems 1000 times. Decided to hold it this way. Guarantees we will have enough after the cut and about the best spacing we can get when holding enough. Will lead the 3.
wasa
3017 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 7:08 AM
Keep enough points, keep a gap (escape card) and try and stop any runs.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Monday 7:22 AM
Assured of 7; 3458 might be better defensively but an ace or nine cut keeps us at 5. Tough game to win no matter what we keep. Lead the 3 and hope.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Monday 7:31 AM
I want the 4-7 combo in my hand so I can get 15-2 if the dealer pairs my 4 lead, and it seems like a good thing to NOT have a 5 in my hand in this position. A lot depends on the luck of the draw at this point.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
Monday 7:45 AM
Awesome puzzle, duke. I am not confident at end game when this close as I don't have the skill of those of you who think 4 moves ahead like chess players. I kept the 7 so I could hope the opp paired my 4 lead. After that, it's a crap shoot to me, so I figured there was no escape card, and kept all touchers to hopefully, get the run I needed before she did!
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
Monday 7:46 AM
And of course, I thought I was pone..ugh. Can I go play live cribbage somewhere instead LOL
wasa says: We are pone.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:55 AM
I'll try the 3456 and lead the 4. If I survive the lead unscathed, I may win.
Cyrano
286 votes

Joined: February 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:26 AM
I'll keep the 3456.

Unless the dealer pegs out (which lets face it, is the most likely outcome here) I'll have the necessary 6 points in the hand to win, so I'm covered there.

I'll lead the 3.

First, the dealer will not want to respond with an X for fear I kept a 2 as well, and they'll be hesitant to respond with a 9 due to a fair chance I kept a pair of threes. Of course the dealer responding with a 2 is right out, as is a 4. Responding with an A or 5 are problematic due to the chances I score a 3 card run. So the dealer will try pretty hard to respond with a 6, 7, or 8 . The beautiful part there is that we have 6, 7, and 8 covered to score a 15.

So the only responses we don't have a good card to follow up on are X, 9, 2, A and 3 the first three of which the dealer will avoid at almost all costs, and the A which they'll avoid unless there's no other good choice. But with my luck they'll be holding a 3 and take the risk that I'm not holding another.
JQT says: I enjoy reading your thoughts and ideas. The sticky issue here (to which you immediately alluded) is that since we are Six Holes from the Finish Line, and the Dealer is only half that distance, the Dealer will GLADLY give us a PAIR, or a (15-2), or even a RUN of Three AS LONG AS the Dealer is holding a Reply Card that scores Three Points, i.e., PAIRS Royal, or a RUN of Three (or more). And since our best chance (unless a Jack is Cut) is to defend and hope to WIN with First Hand Show, our primary objective will be to AVOID any play that allows the Dealer to score the aforementioned. Therefore, if you Lead the Trey (good so far) and Dealer now plunks down a 5 Card, we can almost with certainty bet that the Dealer has a Deuce and perhaps even a 6 Card. Or the Dealer might be in a JAM and perhaps the Dealer holds (3 3 5 5), and so the Dealer may figure why not give up three to get three (and WIN) instead of risking that we score PAIRS Royal with a third Trey. And of course, if unlike your hand, if we did hold the 7 Card with say (3 4 5 7), after the Trey Lead and a 5 Card Reply, even if we grabbed the (15-2) with a 7 Card, now the Dealer can WIN with a 6 Card as it nets a Run of Three. There are very few ways for Pone to score SIX while only giving up TWO or fewer points, and that is why the odds do favor us playing DEFENSE today. However, exceptions abound, and so please read my reply to my own posting, above, and see what you think. In the end, this (3 4 5 6) may indeed be a good hand to retain today, but I would probably lead the 4 Card or maybe even the 6 Card (say, after a Jack Cut), since our DEFENSIVE chances are increased if we bust up our RUN, and our OFFENSIVE chances are increased by RETAINING THOSE SMALLER, connecting cards. Of course, these are all calculated guesses, and while I do always try to have a PLAN in place that can WIN, this is a very difficult and very subjective Cribbage Endgame Puzzle, to be sure!
bbaer1
3691 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Monday 10:35 AM
duke62
1483 votes

Joined: September 2014
 
 
 
Monday 10:45 AM
Dealer needs only pair or 15 something from us and they're pretty much guaranteed to win (not to mention a Jack cut). The best defense against this is to lead from a low card pair, but alas we don't have a pair. Nor do we have much of an out card opportunity. So when in this situation my preference is to disguise my hand as much as possible. Today that means holding less than enough points. 3567 is a hold of 5 but guarantees enough. I'm willing to take slightly more chance and keep another small card with 3457 and hope a 9 isn't cut. I'm leading the 3 and hoping for an 8 response on which I'll play my 5. I don't want to see a 3 or 6 response. The rest I'll try to squirm along.

Regardless of the hold or lead I odds will show we most likely lose this game. But I do ant to see which holds leave us with the best chance to steal this game!

Wow - about as divergent selections among the folks commenting as I recall seeing for a puzzle. 9 different choices so far. (12 different choices among all voters).
duke62 says: Oops, I voted to toss 4-8, but meant to toss 6-8 and hold 3457.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 11:14 AM
A case of saying glad opponent did not have matching cards. Three lead 30 push acceptable. dec
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Monday 1:54 PM
Ok, so my hold is a little strange here. But also, I’m out with every cut, and I prefer having the 8 to the 7 as a bit of an escape card. My thought is to lead the 4 and hold my breath. I’m losing if they pair, so the 4-7 combo doesn’t really do much for me here.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 4:25 PM
I think it is between 3-4-5-6, 4-5-6-7 and 5-6-7-8. Expected averages are not important here but chances of winning are the vital factor. I think it will be easier to stop Dealer pegging 3pts with 4-5-6-7. So I'll throw 3-8.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:27 PM
At 115-118* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s, Our Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

Offense_______Dlr Peg Out %____Our Peg Out %___Hold Out %
5-6-7-8___________52.9____________0.0____________100.0
4-6-7-8___________55.8____________0.0_____________97.1
4-5-6-8___________57.2____________0.0____________100.0
4-5-7-8___________60.2____________0.0_____________80.9
3-6-7-8___________60.5____________0.0_____________97.2
4-5-6-7___________60.8____________0.8____________100.0
3-4-6-7___________62.0____________0.0_____________39.0
3-4-7-8___________63.8____________0.0_____________84.8
3-5-7-8___________65.9____________1.2_____________98.1
3-4-5-6___________67.8____________0.0____________100.0
3-4-6-8___________68.2____________0.0_____________66.1
3-5-6-8___________68.9____________0.0_____________41.2
3-5-6-7___________69.3____________0.0____________100.0
3-4-5-7___________71.1____________0.0_____________98.9
3-4-5-8___________75.9____________0.0_____________98.6

5-6-7-8 has the lowest chance of Dealer pegging out and guarantees that we'll get out first take. So I'll select 3-4 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts._______Win %
5________________(-1.18)________________4.7
6________________(-1.24)_______________26.6
7________________(-1.30)_______________40.0
8________________(-1.37)_______________39.3
JQT says: Like when watching a movie that propels and projects us into an imaginary future, if we are willing to temporarily suspend any disbelief and agree and concur that the program has a meaningful grasp on reality here, then it seems evident that cwed with his (4 6 7 8) choice and wasa, warquaker, and jmath714 with their (4 5 6 8) choice deserve top honors today. At least two other observations are notable to me: First and foremost is that among the "6 choose 2" or fifteen possible choices, I somehow personally managed to pick the very worst hand according to the program, and that today is also rather unique in that the best choice computer hand was also chosen to a higher degree by voters who did NOT post a response, as (5 6 7 8) came in third place with 15% of the votes and yet was not chosen by anyone who posted his or her ideas behind that choice! I should probably add one more bit of perhaps meaningless information: it has been my observation that each of the last three iterations of the Halscrib family since about 2006 does have a seeming 'sensitivity' to the Trey Card is such extremely "tight" endgames. For example, over the course of at least fifteen years of doing battle with this program, after having likely played tens of thousands of games, I have observed that when the computer is the Dealer and needs just a point or two to win, and if I have a choice of more than one "small" card to lead as Pone, it is remarkable how often a Trey Card Lead results in a loss when another 'small' card would win! It could very well be my own imagination, bias, or rationalization, yet I would even joke with Hal many years ago that the program seems to place such a strong bias on trying to win by pairing a Trey Lead. Thus, if I had to lead from (A 2 3 4) at a score where the game was tied say at Hole 119, I would learn to avoid leading a Trey! Over the course of numerous games and many years of play, I would learn to shy away from the Trey Lead if all other things seemed equally probable, and sometimes I would even use this knowledge to my advantage and simply discard a Trey! And so here today we maybe see what I have experienced in the past, in that the top four choices by the program today out of the fifteen possible hand choices contain no Trey in them! This almost seems like that awareness you sometimes develop when you play a particular person long enough to sense a "style" of play by that specific person, such that you can benefit from that past experience. Anyway, congratulations to duke62 for such a remarkable puzzle today!
warquaker says: JQT many thanks for this insightful post.
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Monday 8:09 PM
Every cut hits us. Just concentrate on preventing opponent from pegging.