September 23, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
80-81*  ?
56%
23%
16%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 206
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:06 AM
Double Double will get me to 96
mrob2199
1408 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:07 AM
To me this is an absolute all out offensive position-gotta get down the board as much as we can for our upcoming deal-the dealer is 40 out so no big worry about the discard of the jacks-actually looking for a picture cut here to give us 14 with a good shot at 2 to 3 more pegging points
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:13 AM
More clubs in circulation than spades.
JQT says: If this were a defensive position, I think your choice of Toss (A J) might be better in most cases as opposed to Toss (A 2). The Crib Values are within a few tenths of a point of one another, but pegging with (2 2 3 J) should be a better hand in most cases. I do think OFFENSE and thus Toss (J J) is the correct choice today, but from a DEFENSIVE perspective, I think you made the best available choice.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 AM
I hate to pass a pair to the crib, especially Js but a double run is a double run.

I'll start the pegging with a deuce.

The 7 show-card helps but not by much.
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:59 AM
The scores are the key here position wise. Go and grab situation. Two lead hopeful for a play on situation. dec
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:05 AM
Our POSITION screams OFFENSE, and so I'll Keep (A 2 2 3) and Toss (J J).

So many Cuts helps us get a Dozen Points or more (AAA, 22, 333, 9999, TTTT, JJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which meets our positional objective today.

More than HALF of those Cuts in fact shall give us Fourteen Points! Even a Jack Cut would be relatively good here, in spite of the fact that we gave away TWO of them!

After the 7 Card Cut, we have Ten Points, and we'd like to precede this by pegging half a dozen, so let's lead a Deuce from our PAIR and attempt to do so.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:07 AM
Hole 95 here we come....
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:51 AM
"And away we go".
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:15 AM
Offense, offense, offense.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:58 AM
Never break up a double run. In this case anyway.
mfetchCT425
1382 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:06 AM
Agree with offense all the way here. Any face cut is 14, 9 cut is 12, and also chance for 15 or 16 with the A,2,3 cuts.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:26 AM
Even the Jack would benefit us with the dealer only picking up four points to the pone's 6. Four points in pegging is not completely out of reach.

Lead the 2 of hearts.
RubyTuesday
897 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:27 AM
As James above has noted, I threw the wrong Jack.
jmath714
1290 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:00 AM
Make sure to lead the 3, not the 2.
SallyAnn3 says: How come, Jason. Please explain so I can learn something today. I know if she plays a face, I get 15, but is there another reason? I led the 2 and got trips, and that helped me to win the game!
mrob2199 says: Sally I’m pretty sure Jason would say that in this situation it’s most likely dealer will be very reticent to pair a 2 lead,so if you are going to acquire that initial 15 for 2,the chance of getting the trips is much better with you playing the 2 as your second card instead of your first-players generally tend to relax when pairing a card not lead,figuring it is likely you would have led from that pair
jmath714 says: Rob is completely wrong! Just kidding, I just feel like he needs to see that sometimes. He’s correct here, very rarely is a player going to pair in this position or a 2 lead. Even if they have a similar hand, they might play off.
glmccuskey says: I also feel by leading the three you force a face card reply vs the dealer dumping a five on the two lead.
SallyAnn3 says: LOL Jason...good one! I figured that, but took the chance. Hope to see all three of you sommmmmmmmmeday, sigh :)
SallyAnn3
882 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:17 AM
Got lucky, and 2 extra points. Better than nothing :)
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:44 AM
Right or wrong, the thought was to slow opponent down.
warquaker says: And from the posts it is seeming to be wrong :-)
JQT says: The main issue in this relative position is that we desperately need about Fifteen Points to reach an ideal place on the board from which to become the Next Dealer. And prior to any pegging, Keep (A 2 2 3) gives us at least a Dozen Points from about Twenty-Six Cuts, while Keep (2 3 J J) only does this after about Seven Cuts. Our opponent is already 'short' of position, and so any DEFENSE we apply here becomes untenable, especially if it becomes too costly to our own OFFENSE.
warquaker says: Thanks for this JQT. As you saw, I had not realised the nature of the position.
warquaker
238 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:32 PM
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:41 PM
I think it's between the double-run and 2-2-3-JS:

A-2-2-3: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.42) = 1¾pts

2-2-3-JS: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = 1¼pts

Potential:

A-2-2-3: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 22, 333, 9999 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.

2-2-3-JS: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 5555, 8888 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 14xXs = 26 cuts. Plus 11 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need 16pts to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but perhaps A-2-2-3 more so.

Summary:

A-2-2-3 has a ½pt better starting value but 2-2-3-J has the nob potential which reduces this to ¼pt. It also has more cuts for improvement and 26 cuts for 12-16pts compared to 26 cuts for 10-14pts for 2-2-3-JS. Also I think it will peg slightly better. Therefore I'll throw the J-J.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 PM
At 80-81* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-2-2-3____12.04+1.65+(-6.69)=7.00____4.4____42.1
2-2-3-JS____9.59+1.48+(-4.60)=6.47____2.1____31.5

Offense______L2 %___L3 %
A-2-2-3_______4.5____32.5
2-2-3-JS______1.7____32.1

A-2-2-3 is better for expected averages by 0.53pt and is very much better for Win %s. 2-2-3-JS is appreciably lower for Loss %s because of the safer A-JC but even so I'll select J-J to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 2H and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
2____________________2.15
3____________________1.89
A____________________1.50
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:04 PM
________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-2-2-3____12.04+1.65+(-6.69)=7.00____4.4____42.1
2-2-3-JS____9.59+1.48+(-4.60)=6.47____2.1____31.5
2-2-3-JC____9.61+1.48+(-4.64)=6.45____2.1____31.6

Offense______L2 %___L3 %
A-2-2-3_______4.5____32.5
2-2-3-JS______1.7____32.1
2-2-3-JC______1.7____32.1