November 19, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
43*-49  ?
Total votes: 223
SallyAnn3Was playing dec in ACC online. Turned out to be a pivotal decision as I beat him in the game, and got points. It made my day to beat a good player :)
1733 votes

Joined: March 2016

Thursday 3:05 AM
Tough call for me this morning. Magic elevens or Sweet Sixteen? A pair of fours beat a pair of aces in the crib (Ras 5.54 pts. s 5.51 its.)
This hand has 12 cuts that increase from 12-20 points vs. 10 cuts.
494 votes

Joined: February 2009

Thursday 3:50 AM
Awesome puzzle this morning Sally!!!! It literally took me almost 5 minutes to choose my discard,and I have no clue if I made the right decision-the 4477 looks like a good pegging hand -if the dealer has pictures-but it is highly vulnerable to a lot of different hands-the AA77 gives us some wiggle room and and a few extra cuts to help-I almost gave the AA44 a thought,as about 35 percent of the deck gives us a 12 hand with a pair in the crib-but a lot of the deck obviously misses that holding too,and I’m not willing to sacrifice the 4 point swing ( holding 8 instead of 4)
157 votes

Joined: June 2020

Thursday 4:04 AM
Tough Choice Today but kept the Aces for Pegging rather than the 4s
2679 votes

Joined: June 2013

Thursday 4:14 AM
Roughly speaking, two times out of three the cut won't be an X card, so I won't keep AA44.

4477 is helped by A,4,7 or 8 = 10 cards.
AA77 is helped by A,6,7 or 8 = 12 cards.
205 votes

Joined: March 2020

Thursday 4:46 AM
What a toughie. Thought 4s would be the best help in my Crib. Your crib would have thrown As.
771 votes

Joined: August 2018

Thursday 5:16 AM
Before pegging tossing the 4s is about 0.3 better on expected averages than AA.
168 votes

Joined: June 2020

Thursday 5:40 AM
Quite the hand makeup and it actually happened to Sally! Yikes...after thinking this can’t be first thought was to send the 7-7 because of crib value. But I actually counted points and decided on sending the 4-4. The pegs say danger for me here even though I seem to be counting first in CPZ #2. If the cycle math holds , my opponent will be have the deck first in CPZ #3. So before I see the hand thinking offense. After fumbling my way through the analysis, with 8 in hand and two in crib, I am still thinking offense although keep A-A-7-7 does not seem to peg well. The starter helps my crib for sure. and gives me 14 points hand + crib least. So, now I think the best approach is to try to slow down current Pone pegging this hand ..but I will read other comments and ask some questions about pegging strategy. It’s a rare hand indeed that has the potential to produce 44 points hand + crib . A seven cut and Pone sends a pair of 4s to the crib would have done it.
412 votes

Joined: August 2019

Thursday 6:15 AM
Maybe the option of tossing two 4s is diminished by having two As, so I tossed the two As instead. With a 4 cut, I'm hoping for faces in the crib from pone.
684 votes

Joined: February 2009

Thursday 6:15 AM
Very Nice puzzle Commish! lol. Interesting hand. I liked the pair of 4s to the crib more than a pair of aces. Maybe the aces provide us some nice pegging at the end of a pegging sequence, especially if pone has a lone ace. After seeing the cut, wish I held the 4-4-7-7, lol. Sally, which way did you hold it? And yes, dec (Dan) is an exceptional player and very difficult to beat.
1177 votes

Joined: October 2014

Thursday 6:30 AM
I opted to toss 4-4 because of the better pegging potential of A-A-7-7. I will be aggressive in the pegging (i.e., pair Ace or 7 lead from the pone) and otherwise work to get my Aces together on the topside of the pegging. Good puzzle, SA3!
1637 votes

Joined: March 2009

Thursday 6:49 AM
8 + 2 vs. 4 + 2: 4 point difference hard to ignore, plus the pegging value already mentioned by several. The only problem is that it is hard to expect help in the crib. My second choice would be AA44; much prefer sevens over aces in the crib. Turns out that the third choice of 4477, which also is 8 + 2, is rewarded today with a cut for 20. But in the long run AA77 wins out IMO.Thanks Sally!
4457 votes

Joined: March 2008

Thursday 6:55 AM
Hmm ... should have tossed AA.
582 votes

Joined: January 2019

Thursday 6:59 AM
I threw 4 4 rather than A A after looking at the discard tables.
978 votes

Joined: June 2016

Thursday 7:38 AM
I took a chance with throwing the aces. I am, in all probability sacrificing some pegging potential. At least I know that if I can get the count to 30 the pone does not have the aces. I also feel that the aces can be more helpful in the crib than the 4's.

Whether the 2 "magic elevens" will help or hinder the pegging versus the one "magic eleven" is yet to be determined. Tossing the 7-7 was out of the question.

This is one time that I want the pone to toss K-t or K-9.
3018 votes

Joined: October 2008

Thursday 7:50 AM
Toss (4 4) is clearly superior, although we might argue over whether Toss (A A) or Toss (7 7) comes next in Second Place.

Toss (A A) might make sense in a position in which we didn't wish to give up any pegs, and yet didn't need any ourselves, either.

With (A A 7 7), we should reliably score Three Holes pegging even against four Ten Cards (or "X"), when the two Magic Elevens in say (4 4 7 7) will only score Four Holes; but this (A A 7 7) hand also pegs well against a far-larger variety of Pone Hands.
199 votes

Joined: March 2020

Thursday 9:37 AM
I held 7-7-a-a- and cut the 7. I never seem to get the face card when I hold a-a-4-4. This hand gets helped by the a-5-6-7-8, so went for it!
199 votes

Joined: March 2020

Thursday 9:39 AM
MODERATOR help, please. Whenver I submit a hand, the cut card that comes up is not what happened. I'm not seeing the option to choose what the cut card really was. Am I missing something here?
Thanks :)
3922 votes

Joined: November 2008

Thursday 10:33 AM
Like dealing from hole 49 with need to have deck in 2nd street CPZ (43-47). If RAS gets teh average of 16 out of this hand and 9-10 as non-dealer of next hand, should have the deck next at around hole 75 (3rd street CPZ 69-73). So my option here is to move down the board with an offense strategy and peg accordingly. Knowing that I have guaranteed peg, 8 points in hand, and a minimum of six in the crib, will pair a 7 if led and score 15-2 on an 8 lead. Of course would pair an Ace; otherwise will hold the Aces hoping to get them in back-to-back for 3 unanswered pegs. Would play a 7 on any small card (2-3-4) other than the Ace. Would also play a 7 on a five spot lead. Fives in live play are generally only led when n/d holding more than one five such as 5-5-5 or when held with X-point cards. Won't play a 7 on a six lead although would play the 7 on a 9 lead. Of course the 7 goes on any X-pointer. Think that covers the bases.
5069 votes

Joined: April 2008

Thursday 1:24 PM
Sally let me see if I can remember my discard 8-3? Your welcome and yes all three choices are close. I would have done the same with that A-A-4-4 it would be third on my list. dec
3019 votes

Joined: October 2007

Thursday 1:30 PM
A's can be deadlier than some think in the crib. Now we will see. Maybe not we never see the opposite hand. But A,A,4 has lots of possibilities.
4385 votes

Joined: October 2007

Thursday 3:05 PM
I think it's apparent that it's between 4-4-7-7 (A-A), A-A-7-7 (4-4) and A-A-4-4 (7-7):

4-4-7-7: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 13¼pts

A-A-7-7: 8pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 13¾pts

A-A-4-4: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts


4-4-7-7: Improves with AA, 44, 77, 8888 = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12/14/20pts with 44, 77, 8888 = 8 cuts.

A-A-7-7: Improves with AA. 6666, 77, 8888 = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts.

A-A-4-4: Improves with AA, 44, 5555, 6666, 77, 9999 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8pts with AA, 44, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.


We're 1pt short of 2nd street positional hole while Pone is 11pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play cautious offense.


I think A-A-4-4 will peg best with A-A-7-7 next best.


A-A-7-7 has the best starting value at 13¾pts and it has more cuts for improvement and more for 12-20pts than 4-4-7-7. A-A-4-4 has the most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/12pts but it starts with 4pts fewer, has a much lower maximum so I do not think it will catch up on the other two hands. So I'll throw the 4-4.
4139 votes

Joined: February 2008

Thursday 3:09 PM
At 43*-49 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %

A-A-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.55pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-4 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.