November 19, 2020

*** This hand was suggested by SallyAnn3
43*-49  ?
40%
37%
22%
Total votes: 223
SallyAnn3Was playing dec in ACC online. Turned out to be a pivotal decision as I beat him in the game, and got points. It made my day to beat a good player :)
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 AM
Tough call for me this morning. Magic elevens or Sweet Sixteen? A pair of fours beat a pair of aces in the crib (Ras 5.54 pts. s 5.51 its.)
This hand has 12 cuts that increase from 12-20 points vs. 10 cuts.
Rosemarie44 says: A cold 18 degrees this morning.
Mark6 says: Last Flowers die as our growing Season finally ends last night
JQT says: That sounds like a wonderful opening sentence to begin a classic Russian novel, Mark!
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:50 AM
Awesome puzzle this morning Sally!!!! It literally took me almost 5 minutes to choose my discard,and I have no clue if I made the right decision-the 4477 looks like a good pegging hand -if the dealer has pictures-but it is highly vulnerable to a lot of different hands-the AA77 gives us some wiggle room and and a few extra cuts to help-I almost gave the AA44 a thought,as about 35 percent of the deck gives us a 12 hand with a pair in the crib-but a lot of the deck obviously misses that holding too,and I’m not willing to sacrifice the 4 point swing ( holding 8 instead of 4)
Eolus619 says: rob...now that the cut has been flipped are you playing offense with your pegging or better to try to slow down pone here ...thanks
mrob2199 says: Bruce the pegging should be fairly straightforward-if the pone leads an 8 would take the 15-a 2 or 3 lead would respond with the 7
Eolus619 says: even I can do this ! well...actually after you pointed it out to me .....thanks
SallyAnn3 says: Thanks, and a lot of the same thoughts swirled through my head....plus, it was dec! I had to play tough lol
Mark6
702 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 4:04 AM
Tough Choice Today but kept the Aces for Pegging rather than the 4s
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 4:14 AM
Roughly speaking, two times out of three the cut won't be an X card, so I won't keep AA44.

4477 is helped by A,4,7 or 8 = 10 cards.
AA77 is helped by A,6,7 or 8 = 12 cards.
Eolus619 says: james...just checking ..did you see my and of more value Ras comments yesterday on top ten most frequent discards
james500 says: Hi. I did see the comments, yes. Thank you to you both for taking the time to comment so thoroughly. Had I been asked to predict the make up of that top 10, there's no way I would have guessed some of those. Any two cards that sum to 4 or less will require two additional cards to make fifteen, so A-2 and A-3 in particular stood out to me, but I guess that they are being discarded not with an eye to strengthening the crib, but because they don't "fit" with the other 4 cards in hand. JQT has spoken often about "the curse", namely 7-9, which also made an appearance on the list, so I won't say much more about it, other than to say that discards which sum to 16+ clearly cannot feature in the same 15/2. I was very encouraged to see 6-7 in the list, as it has a great deal of synergy with the rest of the deck. This too is a discard that John has written about in great detail, and the article on Cribbage Pro blog regarding "intrinsic points", is well worth reading. 3-4 also gets a good write up in the article, but is absent from your list. Maybe it's our little secret?! https://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html?m=1
Eolus619 says: good read ...thanks
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Except for the 7-8 and 2-3, dealers are not looking to toss the most frequent discards. The choice is pre-determined for the discard because of the configuration of the deck. The A-2 and A-3 don't work with much of the remaining deck as you have indicated above. So it is with all those middle card choices. In many hands two mid-cards stand alone, disconnected, and of no value to the other four cards. So they are quickly tossed to dealer crib.
james500 says: Hi Ras, thank you for the clarification. Appreciate the support and guidance that you provide.
kelliher
304 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 4:46 AM
What a toughie. Thought 4s would be the best help in my Crib. Your crib would have thrown As.
SallyAnn3 says: Tell your sweetheart wife hello from me. No Reno to tell her myself..ty..and hi to you as well lol
kelliher says: Kelliher is his sweetheart wife! Hi Sally Ann. I've been following you. I'll tell Doug you said hello.
SallyAnn3 says: aha! I miss your smiling face and wonderful attitude. Hope you start posting more here, MA :) ( I don't use the "Ann" part in real life)
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 5:16 AM
Before pegging tossing the 4s is about 0.3 better on expected averages than AA.
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 5:40 AM
Quite the hand makeup and it actually happened to Sally! Yikes...after thinking this can’t be ..my first thought was to send the 7-7 because of crib value. But I actually counted points and decided on sending the 4-4. The pegs say danger for me here even though I seem to be counting first in CPZ #2. If the cycle math holds , my opponent will be have the deck first in CPZ #3. So before I see the hand thinking offense. After fumbling my way through the analysis, with 8 in hand and two in crib, I am still thinking offense although keep A-A-7-7 does not seem to peg well. The starter helps my crib for sure. and gives me 14 points hand + crib ..at least. So, now I think the best approach is to try to slow down current Pone pegging this hand ..but I will read other comments and ask some questions about pegging strategy. It’s a rare hand indeed that has the potential to produce 44 points hand + crib . A seven cut and Pone sends a pair of 4s to the crib would have done it.
Eolus619 says: by the way...still pondering Coeurdelion analysis and 2-4 toss from yesterday ...never crossed my mind to do that
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 6:15 AM
Maybe the option of tossing two 4s is diminished by having two As, so I tossed the two As instead. With a 4 cut, I'm hoping for faces in the crib from pone.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:15 AM
Very Nice puzzle Commish! lol. Interesting hand. I liked the pair of 4s to the crib more than a pair of aces. Maybe the aces provide us some nice pegging at the end of a pegging sequence, especially if pone has a lone ace. After seeing the cut, wish I held the 4-4-7-7, lol. Sally, which way did you hold it? And yes, dec (Dan) is an exceptional player and very difficult to beat.
SallyAnn3 says: Thanks, Mike. I held as you did..ta daaaaa! You are both exceptional players, and have some competition for the internet title this year. Am thinking more and more people are going to start playing online as things fall apart even more in real life. :(
dec says: Mike is the more seasoned live player. I am just happy to get some those compliments from him, it means a lot. If you notice we are what would you say "waiting in the weeds". dec
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 6:30 AM
I opted to toss 4-4 because of the better pegging potential of A-A-7-7. I will be aggressive in the pegging (i.e., pair Ace or 7 lead from the pone) and otherwise work to get my Aces together on the topside of the pegging. Good puzzle, SA3!
Eolus619 says: thanks for commenting on your pegging approach..very helpful to me
JQT says: And if Pone holds say (A 7 7 X) and leads a 7 Card, we can outpeg Pone 26-to-1, I believe!
JQT says: That should end, "Outpeg Pone 26-to-7" (my Sevens look like Ones sometimes...)
SallyAnn3 says: Thanks, DA1. Happy when I match my mentors, so your hard work with me is paying off!
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:49 AM
8 + 2 vs. 4 + 2: 4 point difference hard to ignore, plus the pegging value already mentioned by several. The only problem is that it is hard to expect help in the crib. My second choice would be AA44; much prefer sevens over aces in the crib. Turns out that the third choice of 4477, which also is 8 + 2, is rewarded today with a cut for 20. But in the long run AA77 wins out IMO.Thanks Sally!
Eolus619 says: just wondering ..in a game...when pegging points are scored is important obviously ..but after the game is over what would you consider successful total pegging points verse opponent ....if first pone would it be accumulating more or even just three -? less than first dealer be ok ...or the reverse ..would accumulating three or more than pone as first dealer be considered ok..just trying to get a feel for the relationships of what is considered “successful” total pegging points while starting out as pone or dealer ..thanks
Eolus619 says: maybe it is really simple ...i need to earn more total pegging points than my opponent regardless of starting out as pone or dealer
Jazzselke says: I would have to defer to others on that question. Have not read a specific article that discusses such a guideline. Common figures quoted are an average of 2 pegging points for the pone, 3 and a half for the dealer.
Eolus619 says: thanks
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:55 AM
Hmm ... should have tossed AA.
RubyTuesday
913 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 6:59 AM
I threw 4 4 rather than A A after looking at the discard tables.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 7:38 AM
I took a chance with throwing the aces. I am, in all probability sacrificing some pegging potential. At least I know that if I can get the count to 30 the pone does not have the aces. I also feel that the aces can be more helpful in the crib than the 4's.

Whether the 2 "magic elevens" will help or hinder the pegging versus the one "magic eleven" is yet to be determined. Tossing the 7-7 was out of the question.

This is one time that I want the pone to toss K-t or K-9.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 7:50 AM
Toss (4 4) is clearly superior, although we might argue over whether Toss (A A) or Toss (7 7) comes next in Second Place.

Toss (A A) might make sense in a position in which we didn't wish to give up any pegs, and yet didn't need any ourselves, either.

With (A A 7 7), we should reliably score Three Holes pegging even against four Ten Cards (or "X"), when the two Magic Elevens in say (4 4 7 7) will only score Four Holes; but this (A A 7 7) hand also pegs well against a far-larger variety of Pone Hands.
Eolus619 says: morning...is the knowledge about what you have just said about pegging potential as to points scored by a hand makeup acquired mostly through trial and error experience ..or is there a tutorial somewhere that one could study about what hand make up constitutes a valuable pegging configuration ..incidentally i have already viewed Ras video classes on the pegging subject ..also..i have through self evaluation ..and looking at final scores..determined my pegging skills are one level..at least..below lousy ..thanks
JQT says: After playing several tens of thousands of hands, you just evolve to see that certain patterns emerge with a known deck and a given set of rules and scoring counts such as (15-2) and (31-2) and RUNS and PAIRS, etc. Specific combinations of cards almost always work together, especially when we are Dealer and so we can score with each card played. Combinations such as (A A) and (A A 2) alongside any Middle Card are extremely effective. I suppose you could learn this by just exploring the mathematics of it, although I know of no such Cribbage Book. I recommend "Probability Without Tears" by Derek Rowntree if you are into the maths but it's a tough slog if you aren't into permutations and combinatorics and probability, so it's probably just easier to acquire this from LOTS of playing against the best opponents you can find. It can seem daunting, as when pegging with four unique cards against Pone holding four unique cards, the number of relative pegging scores that can transpire is very large, maybe fifty different resultant scoring outcomes, perhaps even more, and less when card ranks are high or PAIRS are involved. The truly only EASY pegging hand in Cribbage is FOUR-OF-A-KIND! LOL
Eolus619 says: thanks ...i suspected a large amount of my improvement was going to be from the self taught school of hard knocks ..all the best
JQT says: You can get lots of ideas and guidance from books, and I would look at the many booklets by Dan Barlow, as well as "Cribbage: A New Concept" by John Chambers, and of course "Play Winning Cribbage" by DeLynn Colvert, who documents what he calls "Big Turkey Plays" and "Little Turkey Plays" throughout the book. Sites such as Cribbage dot Org by the ACC have Player Tips, and Michael Schell created Cribbage Forum, with its infamous "Ask The Experts" and you should use ALL of these to improve your game, even though none of these sites or books is specifically about pegging, they all have excellent content which includes pegging advice.
Eolus619 says: thanks ...very helpful........the journey continues !
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 9:37 AM
I held 7-7-a-a- and cut the 7. I never seem to get the face card when I hold a-a-4-4. This hand gets helped by the a-5-6-7-8, so went for it!
SallyAnn3 says: UGH..Did not go this way...i have to stop making a choice, then changing it as it won't erase the first one when I change my mind before hitting enter
dec says: I remember that seven cut. dec
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 9:39 AM
MODERATOR help, please. Whenver I submit a hand, the cut card that comes up is not what happened. I'm not seeing the option to choose what the cut card really was. Am I missing something here?
Thanks :)
Ras2829 says: Hi SallyAnn3: Great puzzle! As a moderator the starter card here is randomly selected and submitter of the puzzle has no control over what that is. A moderator can look at the puzzles which are pending, all starter cards are shown even weeks in advance, and moderator has no means to change that card. Guess you could preface your puzzle with something like "praying for X-point cut or a 7 - what will it be?"
JQT says: I suppose that we could ask Matt about having "Submit Hand" include an option to ask "Allow Random Cut?" as it implements currently without asking, and if one said, "No" then it could ask for the puzzle submitor to then input the desired Cut Card. On those very rare occassions when I submitted a puzzle and wanted a certain card to be the Cut Card, it required submitting, and then you had approximately a one in thirteen shot at getting the desired card (depending upon the hand, of course). Usually, it was not important, but when it was, I could delete my entry, and try again! Often, I was happy just to exclude perhaps a few specific Cut Cards, so that took less retries. But we could ask to have this become an option, using the gmail address below, which does get checked.
SallyAnn3 says: Ok.thanks guys! Thought I was missing a step somewhere. From now on, I'll post what the real cut was. Appreciate the help! Thanks for all you do to run the site.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 10:33 AM
Like dealing from hole 49 with need to have deck in 2nd street CPZ (43-47). If RAS gets teh average of 16 out of this hand and 9-10 as non-dealer of next hand, should have the deck next at around hole 75 (3rd street CPZ 69-73). So my option here is to move down the board with an offense strategy and peg accordingly. Knowing that I have guaranteed peg, 8 points in hand, and a minimum of six in the crib, will pair a 7 if led and score 15-2 on an 8 lead. Of course would pair an Ace; otherwise will hold the Aces hoping to get them in back-to-back for 3 unanswered pegs. Would play a 7 on any small card (2-3-4) other than the Ace. Would also play a 7 on a five spot lead. Fives in live play are generally only led when n/d holding more than one five such as 5-5-5 or when held with X-point cards. Won't play a 7 on a six lead although would play the 7 on a 9 lead. Of course the 7 goes on any X-pointer. Think that covers the bases.
Ras2829 says: The dealer crib averages for 4-4 are 5.535 (1,869) 18/91 and A-A 5.507 (1,209) 19/91. The 4-4 scores 10% more cribs of 8 points or more and 10% less 2 point cribs. That accounts for the small difference in crib average and ranking. And the Aces because of the low peg count total have a better chance of being played back to back for peg points. And it is much easier to pick up a stray Ace within the 31-point framework than it is to pick off a stray four. Have no personal preference for either of these pairs - just play the numbers.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 1:24 PM
Sally let me see if I can remember my discard 8-3? Your welcome and yes all three choices are close. I would have done the same with that A-A-4-4 it would be third on my list. dec
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 1:30 PM
A's can be deadlier than some think in the crib. Now we will see. Maybe not we never see the opposite hand. But A,A,4 has lots of possibilities.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 PM
I think it's apparent that it's between 4-4-7-7 (A-A), A-A-7-7 (4-4) and A-A-4-4 (7-7):

4-4-7-7: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 13¼pts

A-A-7-7: 8pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 13¾pts

A-A-4-4: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

Potential:

4-4-7-7: Improves with AA, 44, 77, 8888 = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12/14/20pts with 44, 77, 8888 = 8 cuts.

A-A-7-7: Improves with AA. 6666, 77, 8888 = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 12/14/20pts with all cuts.

A-A-4-4: Improves with AA, 44, 5555, 6666, 77, 9999 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8pts with AA, 44, 6666, 9999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 2nd street positional hole while Pone is 11pts short of where they would like to be so I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think A-A-4-4 will peg best with A-A-7-7 next best.

Summary:

A-A-7-7 has the best starting value at 13¾pts and it has more cuts for improvement and more for 12-20pts than 4-4-7-7. A-A-4-4 has the most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/12pts but it starts with 4pts fewer, has a much lower maximum so I do not think it will catch up on the other two hands. So I'll throw the 4-4.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:09 PM
At 43*-49 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-A-7-7____9.48+2.89+5.07=17.44____16.4____40.4
A-A-4-4____8.09+3.09+5.71=16.89____15.2____37.7
4-4-7-7____9.22+2.65+4.92=16.79____14.7____39.4

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-A-7-7________14.7____33.2
A-A-4-4________15.5____35.8
4-4-7-7________12.8____32.5

A-A-7-7 is best for expected averages by 0.55pt and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-4 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.