Daily Cribbage Hand

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)

			78%
			7%
			7%
			1%
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Total votes: 232

This is a killer puzzle Andy!!!we need points desperately for our next deal but the dealer is only 28 away-too close to gift him a 2-3 discard-in keeping the 2-3-9-9 there are 17 cuts that will improve our hand to 6 or 9 points-and there is a decent chance we can peg 2 or 3-the 8-10 discard should be relatively safe as we are holding 2 of the nines-even if only get to hole 92 or 93 we have a much better shot of winning with our 3 counts if the dealer is held 12-15 points away rather than us being at 100 but the dealer only being 7 or 8 away

I'll probably be out there alone today but shouldn't we consider our position first and get down the board? Is 2-3 too risky at this position? This may be a learning experience.

I'll keep the red cards and lead the 3.

Congrats to Jmath of this parish for his performance in the current season of the Cribbage Pro online multiplayer. As of this morning, he's ranked 6th on the leaderboard.

Yesterday on a social forum I saw a statement sometimes a risky discard can be successful . If we keep the double run and get a cut for sixteen, if we get fortunate and peg five or six we might end up at 115. Now the con they have a matching card main hand and gather eight to twelve there now the crib they put in something like A-2 or A-3 now they are in the 110s. I like my lead and if I even get only two more that puts me in the high 90s. I like the calculated play here. Three lead check play. dec

Agreed. No point in making life easier for the dealer. Can't remember what I did on the day but almost all the puzzles I submit are games I have lost!!

I didn't want to send the 23, but felt we needed the points.

Zeke says what I thought!

We have 3 points, a possible double-run,and no 23 to our opponent.

Geeez Andy..it would be so much easier if I was the dealer..what an inconvenient fact. First board position. For me, with current dealer 33 out my strategy is to extend this game by two more hands after this with me counting first. The good news is Pone[me] will likely be first deal above 96. The challenge is to hold current dealer as short of 111 as possible. I can still stun myself ,on a too frequent basis ,with being self destructive with discards to dealer crib. I respect dec’s knowledge of the game [ I copied his logic into my notebook] but just could not discard the 2-3. It yields an average count of seven. I thought about the 3-9. However, a nine directly helps six of the top ten most frequent discards by dealer to own crib. This risk is mitigated by me holding two nines though. A three helps three others. The keep of 2-8-9-10 does get help from 27 cards. Evaluating this …I logically wobbled into the what I consider the best part of a bad bargain…toss the 8-10 which fits my strategy of making this a three more hand game [ 2 more AFTER this one]

FOR dgergens..I have now played enough to realize I DO NOT have an intuitive card sense for cribbage. So, I rely on the math [ 26 theory ] of the game to guide me. But I use the CPZ approach since I cannot remember [ keep track of] 20 par holes and what hand the game is on and make discard decisions all at once. The cycle sequence of relying on the “average” points and who is dealing first or counting first helps someone like me make offense verse defense decisions. The two most critical zones are 69-73 and 95-99. Who deals first from these zones [the deeper the better] has the best % chance of getting to 121 first. Put a pencil and paper to work, plot the sequences of dealer and N/D average points and it will become clear how this works. So….based on relative score between who is dealing & who is Pone and what are the points needed by ME to deal FIRST in the last two zones I focus as to whether I should strive for most points [ take on risk] or is it better for me to focus preventing my opponent from gaining points…or a compromise …This involves the counts in all three sources..1]hand…2]crib & 3] pegging. However..my focus must be on the MATH of the game and who deals first in the last two zones which, if the averages prevail, allows that player to count first in the neighborhood of 111. Hope this helps you. A final caveat…take my explanation in this context..if I was playing cribbage to earn enough money to feed my family I better have a second job as a backup. Plus..listen to Ras FIRST about CPZs

I don’t like the idea of dealing from 96-97, it’s not as if that’s a lock to get out in 3 deals.

To me, the breaking point would be the dealer at 90-91 here; then I would give serious consideration to breaking my hand (and likely throwing 8T).

I’m aggressive (and maybe overly aggressive here), but with dealer 33 out, will keep the points and look to move farther down 4th street. I do like the 2-3-9-9 hold that others have opted for now that I re-look at this. Thanks for the insight on this one.

Will make the defensive toss, as I remain in a position to win even with 4 points. A 2/3 toss to opponent could make for a big hand that takes that advantage away.

gotta give myself a chance to win the game. 2-3 toss could hurt me, but I'm going for it.

In agreement with Mike and Jason, I also went aggressive here.

hello..is your thought this game will be one more hand or two more hands from here..thx

I am probably playing this hand a little too aggressively, but I want to set up my position for the next deal. To hold 2 or 3 points at this point of the game could turn disastrous without a decent starter card.

Congratulations to those bloggers who were both brave and resourceful in keeping the 2-3-9-9. I was afraid of the dark and you were not.

Looking at the pegs, the cards, and once seeing the starter card, it's an offense strategy to include the peggigng. Dealer need to have the deck at 4th Street CPZ (95-99) and iw way short of that and the further down the board I move, the greater my advantage with upcoming deal. Although not good cardw with which to peg, will lead the 8 and take any pegs offered. If dealer were at holes 95-98, would have played 3-8-9-10 and led the trey.

With Zeke and Ruby on picking the double straight.

I think it's between 8-9-9-10 (2-3), 2-3-9-9 (8-10) and 2-3-9-10 (8-9):

8-9-9-10: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

2-3-9-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -2¾pts

2-3-9-10: 2pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -3¾pts

Potential:

8-9-9-10: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 99, 101010, JJJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 12/15/16pts with 6666, 7777, 888, 99, 101010 = 16 cuts.

2-3-9-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 6666, 99 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 76.1% up to 6/8/9pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 99 = 13 cuts.

2-3-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 99 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/7/8ptswith AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 101010, JJJJ = 21 cuts.

Position:

We only need 3pts to reach 4th street positional hole and Dealer is 8pts short of position so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-9-9 will play Defense the best but 8-9-9-10 should also be OK.

Summary:

8-9-9-10 has the best starting value by 3¼/4¼pts and although 2-3-9-10 has the most cuts for improvement 8-9-9-10 also has the best maximum with 16 cuts for 12-16pts. So I'll risk the 2-3 to opponent's box.

At 93-88* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W2 %___W3 %
8-9-9-10___10.39+(-2.96)+(-7.46)=(-0.03)___49.0___75.2
2-8-9H-10___5.17+(-2.17)+(-4.34)=(-1.89)___18.1___66.6
3-8-9-10____5.13+(-2.80)+(-4.35)=(-2.02)___18.9___67.8
2-3-9-9_____4.91+(-2.98)+(-4.49)=(-2.56)___18.8___64.9
2-3-9H-10___5.20+(-2.67)+(-5.25)=(-2.72)___19.8___65.3

Defense________L2 %___L3 %
8-9-9-10________20.7___13.0
2-8-9H-10_______10.6___21.5
3-8-9-10________10.2___20.5
2-3-9-9_________11.0___22.6
2-3-9H-10_______14.7___22.7

8-9-9-10 is best for expected averages by 1.86pts and is hugely best for Win %s and although it's not the lowest for Loss %s I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 9H and play a SAFE strategy for the pegging:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
9______________________(-2.50)
8______________________(-2.90)
10_____________________(-2.98)

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