February 25, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by JCM
15*-10  ?
35%
16%
11%
9%
7%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 236
JCMFirst: the Ace Diamonds seems missing from the selection - even on refreshing. All other cards are there. This was an actual hand(Jan 25) where I didn't discard correctly - but I won the game nevertheless. What best should go into your crib? Cut card was a 3.
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 3:09 AM
"Never put all your eggs in the same basket", is the traditional advice. I'll ignore that today, and pick 5-5 over 5-9.

9 reply to a led X card.
Eolus619 says: James..got to thinking about your back & forth with sally yesterday about memorizing tabes..if you would email me ..my address bruceheath@att.net i may have something of interest to you about the subject ..thx
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 3:35 AM
Keep 4 and throw double 5 to my own crib-decent potential for a 31 for 4,tho I would prefer that pones pictures cards are in my crib rather than his hand
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:55 AM
If I follow my own reasoning, I usually give credence to expected averages. That being the case, toss the pair of 5's to our crib.
Eolus619 says: thx for your comment to me
Rosemarie44 says: You're welcome.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 4:11 AM
Three card eleven on the pegging potential. 5-5 high potential in the crib. If one of those twelve cuts (A 4 6 9 ) still have eight in the hand . The bang cut of five could be sensational. Hoping for the triple or quad aces on the pegging. dec
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 5:37 AM
Thought about the 55. I'd rather the sure 6. I'll try to parlay the AA
zeke76 says: Well, the 55 to the crib guarantees 6 (3 pairs) between the crib and hand, too.
zeke76
1395 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Thursday 5:47 AM
We can buy a nicer crib by saving our nickels.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 6:12 AM
The 5 5 is very tempting...but I like the sure eight points I know of splitting them up. I think the A A 5 9 May peg better than the A A 5 9 Looks like we’re in good position for second hand of game.
Goatman says: Should have been A 5 9 9.
Hillchem says: Is your keep A-5-9-9? Then you miss out on the nice three-card eleven that scores 4 points if the pone has all faces.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 6:13 AM
Eolus619
1341 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 6:39 AM
Looks like I was first n/d of the game. Although ahead in relative score, I am dealing short 1st CPZ hole by three and current Pone may actually gain positional advantage next hand by having the deck 1st above 18 if [s]he earns nine points. What to do with the 5-5? Keep both, send both or split? Keep A-A-5-9 [5-9] has more cut card help than A-A-9-9 [5-5]. Ras says there are six discard combination involving a five that dealer can make to own crib while sacrificing two points doing so. The 5-9 is not one of them. With that said, it is best to respect the power of a 5-5 in my crib & have a chance for 8 in my hand. Read dec for insight as to pegging with this keep.
Eolus619 says: upon further review, if I discard the 5-9 I actually still have six points [ where is Rosemarie when I need her to count for me!] left in my hand so his rule is not violated..however I still prefer the 5-5 discard since I am not losing total points just moving two of them from my hand to my crib.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Eolus619: Liams' table is off. Tossing 5-5 to your crib left with A-A-9-9 increases to 12 points with cut of a 5 (55). In response to your "chance for 8 in my hand" stated in first paragraph.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi: Second paragraph, discarding 5-9 you still have 6 points in the hand (and at least 2 points in the crib )with tossing 5-9.
cliambrown says: Hi Rosemarie, C. Liam Brown here. Are you by any chance talking about the table on my site? If so, I've recently made some changes, which might be the source of the confusion. HM is "Hail Mary score", which is now calculated as the minimum score in the top 5% of results for any given discard. And the "Max" column is now hidden by default, since it tends to show results that are extremely unlikely (at least for crib scores and hand +/- crib scores). 5-5 has a 5% chance of getting 8 or higher, while 5-9 has a 5% chance of getting 12 or higher. It's a less obvious value, but I thought it would be a better representation of a discard's chances of getting a high score. I've added a line underneath the table to clarify things. Let me know what you think!
Eolus619 says: C Liam....I would like to thank you for your efforts ..for me personally, your site is a very valuable tool ..
Eolus619 says: hello again..I looked at your changed site. Then read again your post above. Then read Ras's comments near the bottom.Something is out of sync I think?. You say 5-5 has a 5% chance to score 8 or more. Ras [ see below bottom[ says "The 1/2 point pegging edge over A-A-9-9 is obliterated by the 5-5 average to own crib of 8.876 (500). That powerful pair scores 8 or more points 81% of the time." I may be misunderstanding something so a clarification would be appreciated ..thx
wasa says: C. Liam.... I would also like to thank you for your website. Very useful information!
cliambrown says: Thanks Eolus, and glad you like the site! I fear I've muddied the waters further... By my calculations, 5-5 has a 30.4% chance of scoring 8 points or higher in the hand, a 63.8% chance of scoring 8 or higher in the crib, and a 98.8% chance of getting a net hand-minus-crib score of 8 or higher. (This contradicts my previous post! 8 is the "Hail Mary" score for the hand [ignoring crib], because it's the lowest score in the top 5% of results, but there's actually a 30.4% chance of scoring 8+ in the hand.) I'm not sure how Ras makes their calculations, but my numbers are weighted by the likelihoods of opponent discards.
cliambrown says: You can use the new "Target Score" option in the top-right to check these numbers, by the way! (I put in a value of 8.)
Eolus619 says: Well....Ras kept track of 250,000 hands and the results over a nine year period...his averages are highly respected throughout the entire cribbage world for there accuracy. Being out of sync by "18" ..something is amiss..may be me misunderstanding something..not sure ..will wait for Ras to weigh in
cliambrown says: Very cool! It sounds like Ras's numbers are static averages based on observations of actual play? My numbers come from checking every possible combination of turn card + opponent discards for a given hand (with opponent discards weighted by their likelihoods). So just two different methods!
Ras2829 says: Hi cliambrown: My data is empirical, based on discards in live play, separate averages for own/pone crib, and the average of 8.876 is based on 500 discards to own crib that produced 4,438 points. Of those 500, twelve scored 2 points for a 2.4% rate, 83 scored 3-7 points for 16.6%, 302 scored 8-11 points for 60.2%, and 104 scored 12 points or more for 20.8%. Results were not recorded if no part of crib was scored as in end-game scenarios where opposing player might toss 5-5, knowing crib would not be counted. Also did not record crib scores with inferior players. Don't have much data on the other side of the board as have only discarded/recorded 58 times.
HaydenSr
1462 votes

Joined: April 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 7:24 AM
As long as one of the fives is scoring points in my hand, I'll split them up. Having a 5 in the crib guarantees 2 pts. Having 2 5's does NOT guarantee 4 points.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 7:35 AM
Could hold a combined 8 by throwing either A5 or 59, but never crazy about either of those 2 combinations. (Especially so today with the negative delta of each).In addition. we have no face cards, so hopefully they will be awaiting us in the crib and/or as the cut card.
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:46 AM
"give up" the 2 points to get 5-5 in the crib. Looks like a good investment to me.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Thursday 8:37 AM
Something is broken, I was supposed to cut a 5 here.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 11:14 AM
Thinking off. off. off. when viewing the pegs, the six cards in front of me, and after seeing the starter card. So it was 5-5 to crib. Based on my scant empirical data that choice is nearly one point superior to holding A-A-5-9 with suited A-5 discard. True, A-A-5-9 are the best potential peggers in this group of six. The 1/2 point pegging edge over A-A-9-9 is obliterated by the 5-5 average to own crib of 8.876 (500). That powerful pair scores 8 or more points 81% of the time. Nothing in cribbage comes close to that. Of course, like all discards the 5-5 scores more on the other side of the board with an average of 9.086 (56) and tallies 8 or more 89.1% of the time. For those reasons look for ways to dump 5-5 to own crib and avoid tossing on the other side of the board. If you would like to know more about sacrifice limits for a mighty few discards when dealing, E-mail raswino29@outlook.com. Will take any pegs that do not seem to allow a triple for n/d. Would play the % on a 9 lead and pair it rather than split the aces. That means would play the 9 on X-pointers as well. If that develops, might give up a run of three to score the 31-4 with the back-to-back Aces. Most discards from n/d include one X-pointer with a mid card or a small card; so dealer has a likely 10 point crib to start. Having two fives as dealer also increases the chance that n/d will pitch 2 X-pointers. That low-scoring, highly favored 10-K will score 16 points in this scenario.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 1:27 PM
I think I'll examine A-A-5-9 (5-9) with a suited discard, A-A-5-5 (9-9) and A-A-9-9 (5-5):

A-A-5-9: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

A-A-5-5: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 9¼pts

A-A-9-9: 4pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 12¾pts

Potential:

A-A-5-9: Improves with AA, 4444, 55, 6666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 12pts with AA, 55, 99 = 8 cuts.

A-A-5-5: Improves with AA, 3333, 4444, 55, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/12pts with AA, 4444, 55, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 30 cuts.

A-A-9-9: Improves with AA, 4444, 55, 6666, 99 = 14 cuts = 14/46 = 30.4% up to 8/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We're aiming to be at 34pts as Pone for next deal to be on target to reach 2nd street positional hole at 44pt. This requires 19pts, 3pts above average so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Each hand has a pair if Aces but A-A-5-9 has a 3-card magic and the 5 so I think will peg best.

Summary:

A-A-9-9 has the best starting value at 1½pts more than A-A-5-9 but has the fewest cuts for improvement which increase it to 8pts except 55 which increases it to 12pts. A-A-5-9 has the nest highest starting value with the same number of cuts for improvement as A-A-5-5 but has only 8 cuts for 12pts compared to 30 cuts for 8-12pts with A-A-5-5. However A-A-5-9 has a starting value 2pts higher and also should peg well. So I'll throw a suited 5-9.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:30 PM
At 15*-10 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-A-9-9____5.39+0.74+8.97=15.10____40.5____48.1
A-A-5-9*___8.00+1.17+5.24=14.42____37.8____45.5
A-5-9-9____7.83+0.76+5.20=13.79____36.4____45.7
A-A-5-5____7.04+1.41+5.04=13.50____35.2____43.5

Optimal_______L8 %____L9 %
A-A-9-9________24.6____31.4
A-A-5-9*_______25.4____33.4
A-5-9-9________23.8____32.7
A-A-5-5________24.4____34.0

A-A-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.68pt and is appreciably best for Win %s. It is also slightly lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Thursday 2:20 PM
Hi, all: Many thanks to everyone here for all the discussion and commentary.

For the record, in the actual game I split my 5s, discarding a suited 5-9. Doing a later post-mortem I decided I should have instead placed both 5s in my crib. I wasn't sure which way to go at the time, but was attracted by the better pegging of the split 5 discard.

A special thanks to Liam Brown for getting involved in this - I often use his site and find it quite helpful. I'm still getting used to his new layout!

Coeurdelion says split the 5s. Ras says put 'em both in the crib. Brown seems to say put 'em both there, too(according to his table).

At the end of the day, putting both 5's in the crib wins by a 2-1 vote amongst those 3. But as always, it's up to us to make our own decisions.

I never dreamed another crib heavy-weight like Liam would get involved in this discussion. Thanks again to all for your votes and discussion!

dec says: Those three are certainly worthy. But Rob, Dan Jason and Mike also have valuable insights. dec
dec says: Those three are certainly worthy. But Rob, Dan Jason and Mike also have valuable insights. dec
JCM says: I agree!
JCM says: I agree!
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 5:13 PM
The cards I need for a dozen are mostly out of circulation, so may as well try to get some crib points
SallyAnn3 says: Was so focused on the 5's that I didn't even see th magic 11!