February 26, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
23*-21  ?
60%
29%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 206
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:10 AM
A-4 or 8-8, neither would be my choice for discarding to my crib. I like this hand as a better pegger over 8-8-9-K. More cuts increase the value of this hand although at a lower value. Thirteen cuts increase to 6 or 8 points (444,5555,KKK AAA).
Rosemarie44 says: Ras's values: 3-J, 4.07 points; 7-J, 3.83 points.
james500 says: Hi Rosemarie, hope you're well. I don't understand the reference to 3J and 7J. What am I missing?
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James500: You are not missing anything. Actually I would you to miss this whole sentence on values. I was working on another hand coming up and used those discard values in my comment block today. A-4 should be 5.42 points; 8-8 should be 5.50 points. Thanks you.
james500 says: No worries, it doesn't take much to confuse me! I look forward to considering this upcoming submission of yours when it is featured on the site. Hope you have a pleasant weekend.
Rosemarie44 says: You, too. Have a health and safe weekend.
Rosemarie44 says: "health" to "healthy. Sorry. starting the day off tired.
Ras2829 says: Hi Rosemarie44: Liked your early morning thinking. despite your stated intent to post later.
Rosemarie44 says: Thank you Ras. Some habits are hard to break. CHOD comes in right after my morning oolong tea.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:17 AM
I see A-4 and 8-8, but it's the black 8-9 for me.

Every cut bar a 9 improves my hand.
6666,7777,88,999,TTTT instantly create points in my crib, 17/46 = just over 1/3.
K-A eleven may be helpful in the pegging stage.
Eolus619 says: Hello...check your email
Eolus619 says: and...should we dare reintroduce the discussion about intrinsic value of pairs discarded to own crib!!!!!!!
Ras2829 says: Hi james500: Thanks for noting the hand potential growth with these four cards. HalscribCLX confirms your choice this day.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 3:34 AM
I'm sure someone has the crib numbers for discarding A4 vs 88. Either can go well or not at all. I was hoping for the dbl run by leaving the 8's & 9 connected. That possibility was worth not holding the better pegging cards, at this stage of the game.
Eolus619 says: fyi ....tossing to own crib A-4 avg. 5.43 & 8-8 avg. 5.45
dgergens says: Thank you Eolus. So I HAVE learned something from this site. I knew that both tosses were decent tosses to one's own crib. And during a real game, EVEN if had those numbers, I'm not going to be making decisions down to the 100ths of a point. Whenever I can arrive at the same conclusion as one of my benchmark posters (because even they don't always agree) with my simpler logic and less memorized stats, I am happy.
Eolus619 says: welcome...Rob once told me he never has lost a game by a tenth of a point!
mrob2199
1429 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 3:47 AM
Quite an ugly looking hand here-might as well keep the 2 points with potential holding of 8/8/9 together while salting the crib with A-4-looking for a cut to help somewhere-the 2 doesn’t look promising whatever way we kept the hand
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Friday 3:55 AM
Have to keep hand with most potential so 889K for me. I’m a little superstitious when it comes to getting a blank crib...at least the A4 prevents that happening.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:55 AM
Bunting and delayed steals for me ( Its baseball soon ) instead of the long base hit down the line. Just something about keeping the 8-8-9-K worries me about the pegging for opponent. dec
mfetchCT425 says: Dan, like the baseball references. You have started a trend below too, lol. Thinking about baseball makes it seem spring and warmer weather is not too far off.
SallyAnn3 says: Amen!
Ras2829 says: Hi dec: You have good reason to worry "about the pegging for opponent" with the 8-8-9-face.
zeke76
1390 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Friday 5:09 AM
To keep with dec’s analogy, I guess I went for a clean single.
mfetchCT425
1395 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:10 AM
Not much difference between the 8-8 and A-4 to our crib. Thus, I’ll keep the touching 8-8-9 together and maybe we get some help on either end with a favorable cut. An A, 4, or any face cut helps the crib.
Eolus619 says: fyi .....tossing to own crib A-4 avg. 5.43 & 8-8 avg. 5.45..always glad when i can factually help a player who is wildly successful based on “only” on his experience, card intuition talent and being able to see around pegging corners
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks very much Bruce. I had good feeling they were close in expected avg to our own crib.
Eolus619 says: welcome ..some of us have to rely on sabermetrics
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 5:45 AM
Not sure if this is a curveball by Ras or a fastball down the middle. Will keep the combined 4 points, with a possible double-run and A4 in the crib. Might actually hope for a rainout in this game!
mfetchCT425 says: Congratulations Dan on your win last night in the ACC online tournament. Nicely done.
Eolus619 says: The old Dodger teams could score a run without getting a hit...so come on ..channel your inner Maury Wills
SallyAnn3 says: CONGRATS to Dan on his GOLD win last night in ACC on Game COlony. "KindofBlue" has ended his slump! Maybe we should change our winning % to our Batting average LOL.
Jazzselke says: Thanks all!
RubyTuesday
909 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Friday 6:07 AM
I didn’t like the look of the 889K hand so threw 88 to my crib.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Friday 6:09 AM
Dealing 1st in CPZ#1 & 21 away from doing same in #2. Like this . Not much for sending pairs to my own crib. except the 7-7. Cut help #s close for keeps tossing A-4 or 8-8 . So try for double run and hope for Pone ten/faces to my crib. Getting 16 points from this setup ..hmmmmm?
Eolus619 says: BTW.....tossing to own crib A-4 avg. 5.43 & 8-8 avg. 5.45
Eolus619 says: one more BTW..looking @ Ras discard rating system he puts 8-8 is second best group http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp
Eolus619 says: well...one more time... big picture discarding..I would also toss the 5-5..obviously..and Ras would counsel the 3-3 should be given serious consideration too..have a look @ the link about rated discards to own link above
SallyAnn3
904 votes

Joined: March 2020
Friday 7:45 AM
When the hand is a dud, the 5 goes into my crib.
SallyAnn3 says: Held 8-8-9-k
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 7:53 AM
Even if the pone does not toss an X card or two, The A-4 has more flexibility in the crib. Each card can make more combinations within the crib. an example would be if the pone discarded 9-2 or A-8.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:27 AM
Crappy hand, so I will toss a brick in the dealer's crib. Nice cut for 6. Lead the 4?
Gougie00 says: Oops, my crib. I'll toss A4
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 1:04 PM
I think it is between 8-8-9-K (A-4) and A-4-9-K (8-8):

8-8-9-K: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

A-4-9-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts

Potential:

8-8-9-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 88, 999, KKK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/12pts with 7777, 88, 10101010 = 10 cuts.

A-4-9-K: Improves with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 444, 5555, KKK = 13 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Dealer and still have the positional advantage so I'll play Defense.

.
Pegging:

Withe two lower cards and a wide spread of cards I think A-4-9-K will peg well playing Defense.

Summary:

A-4-9-K is better for starting value by ½pt and it has many more cuts for improvement and although 8-8-9-K has the higher maximum at 12pts A-4-9-K has 13 cuts for 6/8pts compared to 10 cuts for 6-12pts. Also I think A-4-9-K will peg better so I'll throw the 8-8.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 1:15 PM
At 23*-21 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-4-9-K____4.26+(-1.89)+5.40=7.77____21.1____42.9
A-4-8D-K___4.26+(-1.85)+4.80=7.21____19.8____41.8
8-8-9-K____4.17+(-2.37)+5.38=7.18____20.9____42.5

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-4-9-K_______14.3____26.2
A-4-8D-K______14.1____26.9
8-8-9-K_______14.5____26.6

A-4-9-K is best for expected averages by 0.56pt and is slightly best ffor Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 1:16 PM
What's not to like about 889 together. Wish in one hand and ... you know the rest.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:16 PM
With opponent at hole 21, needing the deck for upcoming deal in 2nd Street CPZ 43-47, it's play SAFE, Holding A-4-9-K gives the better potential hand score, gives up fewer pegs to n/d, and adds a slight bit to the crib. Small increments are represented in each of those areas making the 8-8 the better discard choice. You can follow each of those in HalscribCLX analysis above. Appreciate all the comments and analysis whether supportive of my choce or not.
Eolus619 says: If I would have looked @ this link first rather than second I would have got this right....geez http://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Friday 4:36 PM
Hi, I put the A-4 in crib - wrong again! But I have a pegging question.

This situation happens often:
Dealt a pair of Aces and 3 X-pointers, and a middle card. Say, A-A-8-J-Q-K. Opp's crib. So you discard one of the Aces and the middle card(8).

You're left holding A-J-Q-K. Now you have to lead.


Knowing one of the Aces is already in Opp's crib, and you have one, too, should you lead your remaining A? Leading an A is vulnerable to Opp having all pictures. But at least he's unlikely to pair your ace.

Or lead an X-pointer? If so, which one?(My preference if I'm going to lead an X-pointer is to lead the J - Opp doesn't know what you have around it.)

Aside from end-game play, what's your best lead?

Many thanks in advance!
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: My lead from A-X-X-X would always be the Ace. If you do other wise you'll give up numerous 31-5 and occasionally 31-8. That should also encourage the retention of a single 2-3-4 with X-X-X if any of those small cards available. You'll give up far more peg points if leading the Ace from such hands to avoid a 15-2 on the opening. Much preferable to give up some 15-2's than the alternative. As non-dealer with X-pointers, the Jack is the better lead as dealer discard will often include the Jack (J-Q, 10-J, J-J, 5-J, etc.) King is most likely X-pointer retained by dealer (often alone as a X-pointer). Take advantage of that by leading from a pair of Kings although avoid leading a lone King as will be frequently paired.
Ras2829 says: Hi JCM: Sorry did not intend that first sentence at all. Should read "My lead from A-X-X-X would never be the Ace."