February 27, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
99*-96  ?
49%
45%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 214
polynumeral
4531 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:07 AM
Nine known points so far only another 13 to get. Leading the 6, playing to count out first next hand.
Will take all and any points on offer throughout pegging
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
3669 helped immediately by 333,66,999 = 8 cards.
6679 helped immediately by 2222,333,5555,66,777,8888,999 = 23 cards.

More synergy with J3 than J7.

9 reply to a led X from the 9-7 sixteen.
Eolus619 says: u r welcome James
Eolus619 says: congrats on top ten finish today
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:54 AM
As polynumeral above - important to take the full 8 points. Leaving two points behind might make all the difference in this position.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:57 AM
Concur with James statistics of the number of cuts helped with 3669 and 6679. Values for 3-J is 4.07 points vs. 7-J which is 3.83 points.
James this is where these discards came into place in error with yesterday's hand in my comment block!
icrib4fun says: Now, do I go back to yesterday's comments to interpret today's discard in context with today's comments about yesterday's discard?
Rosemarie44 says: My comment is directed to James only.
Rosemarie44 says: Todays discard and retention is for today's hand as shown in picture form. Hold 6-6-7-9 and toss 3-J.
Eolus619 says: Rosemarie..thx for the link you tipped me off too very interesting!!! I don't see 3-J or 7-J there I always thought the only discards that Ras said justify sacrificing two points were 2-3,5-J,5-6, 5-K,5-10,5-Q, or 4-5.
mrob2199
1434 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:20 AM
Like the open ended 667 here with the 9-am willing to sacrifice the 2 points here for a possible 5 or 8 cut which would basically cement the game for us-a 2 cut also plays very well with our hold and discard as well
glmccuskey
4100 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 4:24 AM
I’ll take the sure 8 points.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:54 AM
I'll try it this way
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:01 AM
Twenty non cuts. Opponent's lead have a plan. dec
RubyTuesday
912 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 5:40 AM
I’m taking the certain points so threw 7 J to my crib.
mfetchCT425
1398 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:04 AM
Took the 8 points with a little more pegging flexibility. 7-J are both connector cards in the crib. We have to assume opponent will try to balk our crib so maybe these two cards will connect with their discard.
Eolus619 says: mike...would u try to save the pair of sixes for the end of the pegging sequence or will you have to just wait to see what Pone leads with & respond thx
mfetchCT425 says: Hi Bruce, I’m going to be on the aggressive side here to try and ensure I’m as far down the board for first count next deal. Always important to also look at the upcard and compare that with opening lead from opponent. If it looks like the upcard is not showing and visible help to opponent, would definitely jump on any and all pegs. And this position, would do that anyway especially knowing that the cut didn’t do us any favors in the hand and most likely not in the crib either.
Eolus619 says: understand ..thx !
zeke76
1395 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 6:12 AM
Took the points.
Eolus619
1341 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 6:14 AM
From here two hands to earn 22 points. Trying for 112 or higher after this hand. Keep 6-6-9 ..what to do with the three key connectors..3-7-J? Decided not to sacrifice any points. So start with eight ,send the 7-J and hope the crib + pegging nets me at least 4 more points .
Eolus619 says: Ras..would you please re post your % chance of dealer earning 12 points.. cant find it in my notes thx
james500 says: Hi, thanks for taking the time to email me all of the data that you did. Will be helpful.
Hillchem says: Try here: https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson7-5.pdf -- Lots of fantastic stuff from Ras available at https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.html
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619. Dealer averages 15-16 points; so attaining 12 is a very high probability. Dealer chance of scoring 12 (pegs, hand, and crib scores) is 80%.
Eolus619 says: thx RAS
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Eoulus619: Check out this page to get list of which discards you can sacrifice one, 2 and up to 4 points. www.cribbage.org/tips/rasmussen6.asp
Eolus619 says: Rosemarie..thx for the link you tipped me off too very interesting!!! I don't see 3-J or 7-J there I always thought the only discards that Ras said justify sacrificing two points were 2-3,5-J,5-6, 5-K,5-10,5-Q, or 4-5.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Saturday 6:29 AM
This was very close. Anything but endgame and I’m selecting 6679 every time. This spot, I’m very tempted to keep the sure 8, but opted for the bigger pull. But this is razor thin here.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 7:30 AM
Can't balk my crib....need help!
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 7:51 AM
I usually will not give up points unless throwing 23, 5X, etc. But this hold offers enticing possibilities. Also, limited cuts to help 3669, and 7J does not work together. It's a close call as Jason mentions, but here we go....
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 7:51 AM
I think that tossing the 3J works better than the 7J for our crib so I’ll sacrifice the 2 points. I like the open ends of the 667.
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman; Well stated - even I could get the drift. That's one of the reasons you do well with the kids.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 10:37 AM
I think choosing 3J vs 7J in the crib is a crapshoot. Took the fer sure points.
GNXXXVI
127 votes

Joined: August 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 11:34 AM
I'm liking the opportunities. Probably have 3+ in the crib.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:12 PM
I think the choice is between 3-6-6-9 (7-J) and 6-6-7-9 (3-J):

3-6-6-9: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = 11½pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.90) = 9¾pts

Potential:

3-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 66, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18pts with all cuts.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts past 4th street positional hole and Pone is right at positional hole. Opponent is on target to go out as Dealer next hand so I think we must slow them down so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-6-6-9 will peg better.

Summary:

3-6-6-9 is higher for starting value by 1¾pts while 6-6-7-9 has many more cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 10-16pts. So I think I'll throw the 3-J.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:17 PM
At 99*-96 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W1 %___W2 %
3-6-6-9____9.22+(-2.04)+3.42=10.60____5.3____65.2
6-6-7-9____8.65+(-2.15)+3.93=10.43____7.2____65.8

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
3-6-6-9________0.4____16.7
6-6-7-9________0.4____16.2

3-6-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.17pt but 6-6-7-9 is slightly better for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. As we're both at a critical board position I'll place most weight on the Win/Loss %s and select 3-J to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:36 PM
Choice of strategy here is key here. If choosing defense as HalscribCLX has above 3-6-6-9 has the edge inj combined value. If choosing offense as RAS is, 6-6-7-9 with 3-J discard wins by a half point or so in combined value. At hole 99, why would dealer choose defense strategy? Fourth Street CPZ is 95-99. Getting closer to end of board with upcoming first count is best thing that dealer can do. So will take any pegs offered although not likely to peg much unless n/d holding middle cards.
Eolus619 says: Ras..fully understand the comments that both you & Hal have made.I must say it is challenging to know what circumstances trigger exceptions to the two point sacrifice rule for hands 8/under. But as Jazz would say..it is the best answer until it isn't. I need more experience!
Eolus619 says: The 3-J is not among the seven discards you have said can justify two points coming out of dealer's hand.
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus: Most well founded, tested playing rules apply to about 95% of the hands. So that means there are more than 650 exceptions. Most puzzles that I will submit are exceptions to playing rules. Over a long history of play, one might develop a feel for them and become flexible enough to adapt for those exceptions. Not likely that anybody can learn the exceptions though.
Eolus619 says: i need to play 250,000 more hands ! thx for comments and puzzle