March 1, 2021
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Total votes: 246 |
Gougie00 | Flush or A668? |
james500 3915 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Monday 3:38 AM
I prefer the flush.
A guarantee of six points either way, but I reckon the cut is more likely to improve this hand, and I'm more optimistic of 8-9 becoming something than 3-9. Eolus619 says: James...i can now see a three reply to a three lead..as to a four lead I was leaning toward replying with my eight..4-8*[12]-3[15]-3*[18]
still pondering..thx for your input Eolus619 says: whoops 18 should be 20 because i paired the 3 |
mfetchCT425 1393 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Monday 5:25 AM
Agree with James above. More pegging flexibility and more potential with the 8-9 toss. Eolus619 says: M..thx again for continuing to remind us all about the pegging potential of kept hands .. |
dec 6350 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Monday 5:44 AM
Even with a seven ( spades ) cut if we had kept 8-8-6-A we could have had sixteen with the flush keep we would have twelve with at least three in the crib so worth this keep still. The eight- three combats the face cards keep here. dec Eolus619 says: morning ..if the n/d lead a three what would be your reply ?
if a four was lead your reply would be ? thx james500 says: Hi Bruce, I trust all's well. I know the question wasn't posed to me, but for what it's worth, I'd reply with my 3 in both cases. Pone just has this hand to score 31, I have this hand plus the next to score 24. I can afford to allow Pone to score a few if it gets my pegs further down the board. Eolus619 says: thx James..hmmmmmm...thinking about this now Eolus619 says: i do get the 31 & 24 reference dec says: Like the computer recommends offense agree above three in both cases. dec Eolus619 says: thx dec
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Gougie00 5722 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Monday 5:54 AM
I tossed the touchies. Often the opponent will toss you the connector. Crappy hands are often the best peggers because the opponent has no idea what you have.
Mother Nature decided to be kind and give us a 50 degree rainstorm today in Northern Massachusetts. I can see all the leaves I never raked up in November again. JRCeagle78 says: In the green box you note "A668". If that had been the hand posted it would have been a more interesting choice. |
scottcrib 1628 votes Joined: August 2019 |
    Monday 6:04 AM
I usually like A-3 to my crib, but I didn't want to give up the 2 points it would cost me. 8-9 is a decent toss. |
Ras2829 5145 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 6:12 AM
Have got to start this day by sharing the results of a game with another soul who shall remain anonymous. I lost the cut for opening deal. Winner of the cut got to deal three times in this rare game. Hid hand scores as dealer were 10, 10, and 10 -not overly spectacular. His crib scores for the three deals totaled 40 points (12, 20, and 8) in that order. As non-dealer he got to see two hands of 24 and 20! He pegged four holes as dealer and 3 holes as non-dealer for 7 pegs. What does that do. He was sitting in the game hole after five deals. Have never played in or witnessed a game of less than six deals. Have played a few six-deal games and have observed a few. DeLynn Colvert apparently found games of less than six deals as non-existent as well. He has two charts in his book "Play Winning Cribbage" and neither shows any games with less than six deals. The game lasted six minutes. And I avoided a double skunk too by scoring 64 points. Speed up play in your group with games of such limited deals. You could play nine games of cribbage in less than an hour. Might consider playing 22 games with an 8:00 AM start and be done before an early lunch at 11:30. Gougie00 says: I had a 6 deal game versus Rick Pierce in a tournament in Portsmouth. A 5 was cut 4 times in a row, and both of us were getting 20 hands. Once in about a thousand games, you nail the cut every time.
Makes up for those games where neither player is past hole 20 after 3 deals. duke62 says: I had a crazy game where I pegged out on the 6th deal, but never actually finished a game on the 5th.
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Eolus619 1334 votes Joined: June 2020 |
    Monday 6:19 AM
From the “tens” cards only contributors are 10-J-Q-K spades which add one point to the kept flush & any ten helps the crib. The remainder of the deck contributes to this keep making it worth at least eight. Eolus619 says: to be clear ..only THE actual TEN adds to the crib Eolus619 says: BTW...dealer is +2 into CPZ#2 so (s)he has decent positional advantage too |
Ras2829 5145 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Monday 6:25 AM
If choosing offense as a strategy with the deck at hole 45, the flush wins quite handily. It's a closer call if you were to choose defensive pegging strategy. Potential hand size show little difference starting with six points in either case. Potential dealer pegs are much superior with the flush and potential crib score is nearly a point greater. Ras2829 says: Perhaps did not make it clear as balanced opening comments with offense as a strategy choice and followed with "if you were to choose defensive..." Am choosing offense and would play on the lead. Second Street CPZ is 43-47 and RAS has the deck at 45; so move on down the board and add to my advantage. James500 says that he would respond with a trey to either a 3/4 lead. If playing the trey on a four lead, this hand has the three card run covered with n/d play of a 2 or 5. Dealer scores a run of four in either case with the play of the Ace or six. Am looking to increase my advantage on this deal although not crazy about that King cut as it only added a single point to my hand and seems not to touch my 8-9 discard. |
SallyAnn3 902 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Monday 7:58 AM
Pays to flush today.Everything tht is not a face care helps it. I like the 8-9 in my crib to catch a possible 10. SallyAnn3 says: Ok...Since eolus asked me if I saw my hold highlighted in yellow, I HAVE noticed that when I don't see it is also when my hold doesn't show. SO it has nothing to do with stopping to read other's posts when I comment. Which button should I be choosing to pick my cards--or is this just happening to me? SallyAnn3 says: Maybe I am skipping "to your crib" and going straight to "today's results" without realizing it, but it seems nothing would post at all, not just my choice...ugh Eolus619 says: hmmmmmmm...well for sure your two picked cards should be elevated out of the six ..then under the dealt cards, still on same page, click on the small grey oblong box indicating discard to your crib or opponents crib..than click on..on to todays results...when you get to results page your kept hand should appear highlighted in yellow Eolus619 says: I am almost 100% sure you are not clicking on grey oblong box that sends your two cards to the crib Eolus619 says: AND...you actually should click directly on your two discard choices....which should then elevate them above the remaining four cards ..then click on the grey oblong box to send them to the crib and have your vote properly recorded Eolus619 says: if you get to the comments page and your choice is NOT highlighted in YELLOW..BEFORE you comment
you can hit your back button and go back to the initial screen and go through the proper sequence making sure you click the grey oblong box to vote..the system is smart enough to know it has not recorded your vote and will let you select your discards SallyAnn3 says: I do that with the discards lol...that is a internet wide thing I've been doing for 25 years. I will watch to be sure that I am not skipping right to results, though....ty for the info :)
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JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Monday 8:03 AM
If this had been the other players deal I would be more concerned with the 8-9 discard. I'll keep the flush. |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Monday 8:44 AM
If there had been 2 more points overall when NOT keeping the flush, it may have been a harder decision. |
Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Monday 3:02 PM
I think its between A-3-6-8S (8-9), A-6-8-8 (3-9) and 6-8-8-9 (A-3):
A-3-6-8S: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 10¾pts A-6-8-8: 6pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.78) = 9¾pts 6-8-8-9: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8¼pts Potential: A-3-6-8S: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 9/10/11pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 666, 7777, 88 = 19 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt. A-6-8-8: Improves with AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 12/16pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts. 6-8-8-9: Improves with AAA, 666, 7777, 88, 999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 8/16pts with all cuts. Position: We're 1pt past 2nd street positional hole and opponent is behind at 38pts. Our target is 60pts which, on we should reach plus 1pt so I think I'll play Optimally. Pegging: The flush has a good spread of cards and a magic eleven plus the flush will be hard to read so I think this will peg best playing optimally. Summary: A-3-6-8S is best for starting value by 1pt over A-6-8-8 and it has the most cuts for improvement with 19 cuts for 9-11pts. Also it has the extra 0.20pt for a spade cut and it should peg the best. Therefore I'll throw the 3-9. |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Monday 3:20 PM
At 45*-38 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 % A-3-6-8S___8.46+3.41+4.61=16.48____51.5____54.8 A-6-8-8____8.04+2.80+3.52=14.36____44.7____50.9 6-8-8-9____6.52+2.89+4.44=13.85____42.8____46.7 Offense_______L6 %____L7 % A-3-6-8S_______29.4____30.3 A-6-8-8________26.4____32.5 6-8-8-9________28.7____35.5 The flush is best by 2.12pts and is very much best for Win %s and is second best for Loss %s by a close margin. So I'll select 3-9 to discard. After the K cut I'll play Offense to the lead. |