April 7, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
117*-114  ?
27%
26%
11%
8%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 236
Ras2829Poor peggers! What's best chance to peg four holes?
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:06 AM
I’m definitely keeping one of each here-the 10-A combo has value in matching a 10 lead and utilizing the A for the 31 and out-the 9-10 combo can potentially trap a pone J or 8-the 6 and 9 don’t provide a ton of value unless pone has the same cards but beggars can’t be choosers here-we have to try to cover as many bases as we possibly can
MiketheExpert says: Tough choice today, but I would also keep all 4 different ranks. You need to assume you will have to peg out to win the game. The A is obvious, but the 10 gives you an extra chance to pair during the course of pegging. Also, would prefer to keep a 6 and 9 rather than the 2 6's for better chance of scoring a go or 31 with the A. The preferred lead by pone will definitely be A through 4, so assume you won't be able to pair the opening lead and keep maximum options to score during the pegging.
MiketheExpert says: Note: Advantage is best seen with the 3 opening lead by n/d. You will most definitely want to cover with the A, and you will be able to score on next play of any A, 2, 5,6,9, or 10.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:11 AM
"One of each" is often a sensible choice, to cover as many different leads as possible. Sixes and nines cover the same leads as each other, so no need to keep both ranks.
Sixes are better for pegging than nines, so I'll keep A66T rather than A99T. Also have an XA eleven and X6 sixteen, although I doubt I can press them in to service.
Great cut, take the first pegs that are available.
JCM says: Hi James: I like your reasoning, but still I have to wonder, if you keep A-6-9-10, you have the potential ?-9-10-? run available, where in keeping A-6-6-10 you don't have that option?
james500 says: Hiya JCM, hope you're well. You make a fair point and may well be right. Certainly, when I saw Rob had kept A69T it gave me pause for thought.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:18 AM
This is just a stab in the dark. Don't ask me exactly why I picked these cards. Oh, I guess because I have a sixteen.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Like mrob typed the pairs and 31 counts . Also unlikely but pegging on 7-8-J combinations. The backup plan was for a Jack to get cut I think we just doubled our chances there. dec
zeke76
1396 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:37 AM
One of each. If somehow this gets to our count we still go out.
zeke76 says: Is there any advantage to keeping a specific 6 or 9?
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:27 AM
With the one of each crowd. Aside from the flexibility, another advantage is the opponent cannot "read" the hand, it is disguised.
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:45 AM
My friend Jack showed up. The opponent most likely has enough before the cut. I need to peg out. I went as small as I could.

Before the Jack, I was hoping to parlay the 66. Now its take the first 2 that present.

SallyAnn3 says: Way to go on getting Bronze in ACC last night, Greg :)
Gougie00 says: Tough slog. I lost my first 2 games badly. Then the bipolar cribbage fairy felt sorry for me and I won the next 7.
scottcrib says: I'm the cribbage fairy that started Greg down the path of 7 straight.
SallyAnn3 says: lol scott--you started me on my horrid card with one win...stupid game lol
HfxKen
886 votes

Joined: February 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:51 AM
One of each. Fake a flush. Magic eleven. And "there's Johnny!" on the cut. What could possibly go wrong ?

Seriously, really glad to see some end game pegging puzzles. That is one area I really need to work on.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:27 AM
Agree with HfxKen. Fake flush, one of each
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:32 AM
Agree with Ken on the end game puzzles, and it is more obvious now! LOL. I think "one of each" mot of the time, but didn't even cross my mind here. I was too intent on keeping enough to go out, I guess--in case they were short. Sigh :( But....that's the reason I come here, and I learned today.
mfetchCT425
1399 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:05 AM
Whoops, I misread this and thought we were pone. Duh... Senior moment, lol. And where’s my coffee! lol. I’m in the camp to keep one of each at this position, but like Ken and Sally, I like these end game scenarios and definitely learning from the excellent comments provided on this site.
mfetchCT425 says: And if we were pone, I’m not sure I like what I held, lol. Still much to learn about this great game...
SallyAnn3 says: CONGRATS on GOLD last night in ACC Mike...nice to see you name back on the FB posting...and Greg with you. Now need both Dan's!
mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Sally! :-)
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:30 AM
You've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do you, punk? I don't even know how one could do the math on this decision process. Chances of pone not going out are pretty low. Holding A669 as insurance seems a hail mary move; and if you did, what has the better chance of pegging out for the win, A669 or A69X, and by how much? Pone will be holding low cards to keep us from pegging, I doubt you will get chance to play the 66 for your own gain. But there is that chance, maybe pone gets a hand full of X cards. Also, if concerned about having score to go out just in case pone fails, only cuts 2,3,7,Q,K don't provide necessary points if you keep A69X. So I went with one of each.
dgergens says: At time of this post, all the A69X variations add up to 22%, vs 27% A669
MiketheExpert says: My initial reaction is that pone will probably try to hold low cards as well as lead low if possible, so keeping the 6-6-9-10 as Hal recommended seems to limit your possibility to scoring 6-6 in some fashion (if n/d decides to pair your 6, you will score 6 with your 2nd 6 to win, or else if he happens to have high cards, you may score it at the end (+ go), but this would mean you still need to peg 1 more. Also, no need to worry about keeping enough points to go out in case he fails to count. Your hand + crib (6-9 throw) guarantees you the 4 points required if you are unable to peg any.
MiketheExpert says: This is all before the J cut of course (so assuming you did not get a J :) Now you only need to score the 2 points to win
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:55 PM
We need to peg 4pts to Win before Pone is highly likely to peg and score 7pts or more. I think if we keep one of each card this will have a good chance of achieving this. So I'll throw 6-9 to our crib.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:59 PM
At 117*-114 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal__________Our Peg Out %
6-6-9-10_____________28.0
A-6-9-10_____________27.3
A-6-6-10_____________27.0
A-6-6-9______________26.4
6-9-9-10_____________25.6
6-6-9-9______________23.1
A-9-9-10_____________19.7
A-6-9-9______________17.7

6-6-9-10 has the best chance of Pegging Out so I'll select A-9 to discard.

After the J cut, needing only 2pts more, I'll play Defense to the lead.
fentesk says: For any cribbot experts - did Hal used real game data for the endgame? Or would these data be based on calculating a large number of (or all) hand scenarios with a pegging algorithm? Or something else?
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: Don't think Hal will get back to you. So let me give this a try. Nobody in electronic cribbage has built in a cribbage program what Hal Mueller has included in Halscrib, REX, or Cribbage Prof. Mueller's algorithms are very specific, painstakingly developed, and in this case would be fine-tuned to end-game needs. The peg out % above is based on dealer need for four pegs. That figure should range from about 20-30% as dealer averages 3.5 pegs, and pegs are harder to get in end-game scenarios. If peg out % based on the need for two pegs after scoring two for the Jack on the deck, peg out % would likely fall between 65-75%.
JCM
910 votes

Joined: April 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:34 PM
Heads up: "Fruit Cup" tourney starts 4pm PDT Today. Used to be on Thursdays but is happening TODAY this time - about 3 and 1/2 hours from now. Go to bracketjd.com to sign up. Free, fun and all welcome!
wasa says: Good luck today JCM on the tournament. Tonight doesn't work for me (Thursday would work...) so hopefully you can hold the torch up for CHOD.
JCM says: Thanks, wasa. I've been having a dreadful day of crib so far - maybe I've got all my losses out of my system now and now I can only win. Let's hope! ---Been trying to follow the Ras recommendations but little going right so far :-(
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:52 PM
Needing four pegs, would retain in this manner and am choosing offense pegging strategy. This combination allows picking off an 8 or Jack for run of three and also includes a "sweet 16". Am sure the peg-out numbers shown by HalscribCLX above are if needing four pegs. Needing two pegs ought to be 70%+. Unlike the cribbot, I will not play defense to the lead. Will take any two offered and would play the 6 on an 8 lead and play the Ace on a A/2/3 lead. By dumping the Ace on a small card, dealer retains the 9-10 intact for chance to pair or score run of three in two different directions.
Ras2829 says: Fourteen different choice at the time of this posting. Great comments from so many - end game situations pose such dilemmas.