April 7, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
117*-114  ?
27%
26%
11%
8%
5%
5%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 236
Ras2829Poor peggers! What's best chance to peg four holes?
mrob2199
630 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 3:06 AM
I’m definitely keeping one of each here-the 10-A combo has value in matching a 10 lead and utilizing the A for the 31 and out-the 9-10 combo can potentially trap a pone J or 8-the 6 and 9 don’t provide a ton of value unless pone has the same cards but beggars can’t be choosers here-we have to try to cover as many bases as we possibly can
james500
2826 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:11 AM
"One of each" is often a sensible choice, to cover as many different leads as possible. Sixes and nines cover the same leads as each other, so no need to keep both ranks.
Sixes are better for pegging than nines, so I'll keep A66T rather than A99T. Also have an XA eleven and X6 sixteen, although I doubt I can press them in to service.
Great cut, take the first pegs that are available.
Rosemarie44
1856 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:18 AM
This is just a stab in the dark. Don't ask me exactly why I picked these cards. Oh, I guess because I have a sixteen.
dec
5220 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Like mrob typed the pairs and 31 counts . Also unlikely but pegging on 7-8-J combinations. The backup plan was for a Jack to get cut I think we just doubled our chances there. dec
zeke76
901 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Wednesday 5:37 AM
One of each. If somehow this gets to our count we still go out.
Jazzselke
1770 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:27 AM
With the one of each crowd. Aside from the flexibility, another advantage is the opponent cannot "read" the hand, it is disguised.
Gougie00
4608 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 6:45 AM
My friend Jack showed up. The opponent most likely has enough before the cut. I need to peg out. I went as small as I could.

Before the Jack, I was hoping to parlay the 66. Now its take the first 2 that present.

HfxKen
340 votes

Joined: February 2020

   
Wednesday 6:51 AM
One of each. Fake a flush. Magic eleven. And "there's Johnny!" on the cut. What could possibly go wrong ?

Seriously, really glad to see some end game pegging puzzles. That is one area I really need to work on.
wasa
1941 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 7:27 AM
Agree with HfxKen. Fake flush, one of each
SallyAnn3
320 votes

Joined: March 2020

   
Wednesday 7:32 AM
Agree with Ken on the end game puzzles, and it is more obvious now! LOL. I think "one of each" mot of the time, but didn't even cross my mind here. I was too intent on keeping enough to go out, I guess--in case they were short. Sigh :( But....that's the reason I come here, and I learned today.
mfetchCT425
819 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 9:05 AM
Whoops, I misread this and thought we were pone. Duh... Senior moment, lol. And where’s my coffee! lol. I’m in the camp to keep one of each at this position, but like Ken and Sally, I like these end game scenarios and definitely learning from the excellent comments provided on this site.
dgergens
815 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Wednesday 9:30 AM
You've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do you, punk? I don't even know how one could do the math on this decision process. Chances of pone not going out are pretty low. Holding A669 as insurance seems a hail mary move; and if you did, what has the better chance of pegging out for the win, A669 or A69X, and by how much? Pone will be holding low cards to keep us from pegging, I doubt you will get chance to play the 66 for your own gain. But there is that chance, maybe pone gets a hand full of X cards. Also, if concerned about having score to go out just in case pone fails, only cuts 2,3,7,Q,K don't provide necessary points if you keep A69X. So I went with one of each.
Coeurdelion
4523 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 12:55 PM
We need to peg 4pts to Win before Pone is highly likely to peg and score 7pts or more. I think if we keep one of each card this will have a good chance of achieving this. So I'll throw 6-9 to our crib.
HalscribCLX
4268 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 12:59 PM
At 117*-114 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal__________Our Peg Out %
6-6-9-10_____________28.0
A-6-9-10_____________27.3
A-6-6-10_____________27.0
A-6-6-9______________26.4
6-9-9-10_____________25.6
6-6-9-9______________23.1
A-9-9-10_____________19.7
A-6-9-9______________17.7

6-6-9-10 has the best chance of Pegging Out so I'll select A-9 to discard.

After the J cut, needing only 2pts more, I'll play Defense to the lead.
JCM
550 votes

Joined: April 2019

   
Wednesday 1:34 PM
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Ras2829
4073 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 2:52 PM
Needing four pegs, would retain in this manner and am choosing offense pegging strategy. This combination allows picking off an 8 or Jack for run of three and also includes a "sweet 16". Am sure the peg-out numbers shown by HalscribCLX above are if needing four pegs. Needing two pegs ought to be 70%+. Unlike the cribbot, I will not play defense to the lead. Will take any two offered and would play the 6 on an 8 lead and play the Ace on a A/2/3 lead. By dumping the Ace on a small card, dealer retains the 9-10 intact for chance to pair or score run of three in two different directions.