Thursday 3:39 AM

Dealer has the advantave. To change this I can either try to speed up and overtake, or sabotgage them so that they slow down. I'll try the latter.

   

Thursday 3:56 AM

Don't cut a nickel. Eight lead. dec

   

Thursday 4:02 AM

Going to be on the aggressive side as first pone. I like the 8 lead here.

   

Thursday 4:12 AM

Of course, a jack shows up! Tough decision today. I think we need to hold 4 points with a chance to increase the value of the hand to 8 points .Usually first hand as n/d the strategy is offense.

   

Thursday 4:30 AM

As most of you know I don’t play positional cribbage till at least the middle of 2nd street,so I don’t feel any urgency to get to a certain spot on 1st street-I don’t see much upside in keeping 4 points to discard a dangerous 10-J-much better percentage play to throw the innocuous 10-K and hold just 2-there will still be 8 hands to make up that 2 points-and K-K isn’t exactly loaded with potential

   

Thursday 6:01 AM

well....Colvert’s approach for n/d from the very first hand is the best answer until it isn’t. Goodbye 10-J as dangerous as it is. Took a big gulp after dec & Rob say it isn’t

   

Thursday 6:10 AM

I'll toss K-10. 10-J has too much of a chance of going BOOM.

Lead the 8

   

Thursday 6:56 AM

I tossed the 10C KD. This is the safest discard that will score least points for opponent's crib on average. Even though typically you want to start out aggressive, keeping 4 points with the pair of the K's does not justify the much more dangerous throw of 10 J. Not a good pegging hand any way you look at it. Lead the 8 and hope for a face card you can pair in response.

   

Thursday 8:19 AM

Am persuaded by those who say it's safer to discard 10-K, even if it costs 2 points.

Yet: Doesn't pone "damn the torpedos" and play for all points he can get, on 1st hand?

   

Thursday 9:24 AM

Like yesterday will opt for defense. Our best cut with 78KK only yields us 8 points; so will try to slow up the dealer and hope for the better hands to go our way the rest of the game.

   

Thursday 9:39 AM

I'm with mrob. At 0-0, tossing 10,K is worth more than 2 points to me.

   

Thursday 10:19 AM

If thinking offense, total points gained is valuable consideration. If you choose an offense strategy to include pegging, the 10-K discard wins by a comfortable margin. N/D will not peg many on average with these cards (slightly better than 1 point). Leading the 8 provides the best choice to do that and take any pegs offered. Wouldn't worry about the Jack cut too much as 9/10 most frequent discards are middle cards (7-8, 8-8, 6-7, 6-9, 6-8, and 8-9) or small cards. Those do include the 2-3 and A-4. Then follows 3-4. So you can see only the 2-3 and A-4. So you can waltz through those with the greatest damage of six points. There are no five spot discards in the ten most frequent although the J-Q fills one of those spots. If that were the dealer discard in this case, the crib will score 10-poimnts. Only three of those ten pose a threat in terms of crib score. Even with the Jack on the deck, crib will often score 0-2 points (45.494%). So the choice when looking at the pegs, when looking at the cards, when seeing the starter card is offense. Potential pegs, hand score, less the crib score determine the level of success in choosing offense. That's true even if thinking that 10-K is a defensive toss as that choice provides the greater offense.

   

Thursday 10:48 AM

Alone again....naturally (for thos who rember that song). I went with more cuts to help, and possibly get some pegs. Hate having all face cards that don't do much for my hand

   

Thursday 3:45 PM

I think it's a choice between the 10-J, 10-K and 7-10 discards.

7-8-K-K: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = -1¾pts

7-8-J-K: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

8-J-K-K: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

7-8-K-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, KK = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 7/8pts with all cuts.

7-8-J-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJJ, QQQQ, KK = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQQ = 22 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

8-J-K-K: Improves with 5555, 777, 888, JJJ, QQQQ, KK = 19 cuts = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 6/8pts with 5555, QQQQ = 8 cuts. Plus 12 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

As we're First Pone at the very start of the game I'll play Offense. Positional hole is at 18pts and I'll try to get as close as possible but it's unlikely that we can reach it with this hand so it may well pay to keep Dealer short on the pegging and in the box.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well playing Defense.

Summary:

7-8-K-K has the best starting value by ¼pt and although it does not have the most cuts for improvement it has 20 cuts for 7/8pts. Although it does not have the approximately ¼pt for the nob potential I think it will be best. So I'll throw the 10-J and keep 4pts.

   

Thursday 4:08 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
7-8-J-KC___4.13+1.26+(-3.86)=1.53____18.2____19.9
8-J-K-K____3.87+1.13+(-4.21)=0.79____16.4____17.6
7-8-K-K____5.57+1.04+(-5.90)=0.71____20.2____18.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
7-8-J-KC______35.1____52.3
8-J-K-K_______36.4____54.6
7-8-K-K_______39.7____55.2

7-8-J-KC is best for expected averages and although it is not best for Win %s it is lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 10-KD to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the J and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
J____________________1.45
7____________________1.29
K____________________1.27
8____________________1.22