Friday 3:13 AM

Prefer 5-J rather than a pair of 2's to my crib. Four cuts of a 6 gives hand 12 points rather than 10 points by holding 5-7-7-J.

   

Friday 3:21 AM

Excelllent puzzle today Ras-lots of food for thought-our first priority here is to keep a hand that is the least vulnerable to give up multiple pegging points to the pone-especially when they need 15 points-the 225J provides us with the greatest spread and flexibility without completely breaking up all our scoring potential-we are stilll 10 out,so if pone doesn’t go out we don’t want to be forced to play another hand by keeping a spread out 2-5-7-J-

   

Friday 3:34 AM

"Strength in numbers". Fewer twos and sevens in circulation since I have a pair of each, which means that Pone is less able to match them during the pegging. 7-2-2 eleven also.

   

Friday 4:49 AM

I think 5 J discard is quite clear on this hand. Pone is 15 out, and you are only 10 away. This gives you flexiblility to play for pegging if you need to score a few, as well as lay off if not required.

   

Friday 4:49 AM

Rob said this way better than I could. Trying for that balance between points and defensive pegging.

   

Friday 4:54 AM

   

Friday 5:16 AM

My thoughts echo James today.

   

Friday 5:46 AM

Being in doubt, face-five.

   

Friday 6:13 AM

I liked this hold today for reasons James explains so nicely above. Feel we have enough spacing here to avoid trouble in the pegging, and we have combinations of a 3-card magic 11. With 5-J in the crib, confident we will have enough to go out if we can hold pone. Intriguing logic by Rob above as well- always interesting and helpful perspective provided by him.

   

Friday 6:22 AM

In support of Rob’s thinking.i have now lost track of how many internet games I have lost with me dealing from similar advantage and Pone ending up going out from around 105 on first count. I must say though tossing either pair just was not in my mind. Tossing the powerful 5-J and keeping four was my limited thinking this AM. As Ras has said before , dealer has an 80% chance to earn at 12 total points.

   

Friday 6:32 AM

Prefer to have my cards wider, and always good to have a face five in the crib. Odd hand!

   

Friday 9:27 AM

I was leaning to a more defensive play and the starter card reaffirmed my decision. If I can keep the pone's pegging to a minimum I could win with this hand. I held the 7-7 expecting little help from the pone on that discard.

Knowing that I have at least 4 points in the crib will help me play this hand with less anxiety and more conservatively.

   

Friday 9:35 AM

Defense. Keep the best anti-pegging hand. If pone has middle cards, I don't want to keep my sevens around.

   

Friday 10:00 AM

77 & J5 are both potentially good crib discards. So the question is which is better. Clearly holding pone back from pegging is most important. I think I can play defensive pegging pretty well with 2277, so I'm looking forward to Ras' wisdom on which discard he thinks is better.

   

Friday 12:34 PM

As good as he is, Rob outnumbered today. Needing 10 do or die for pone.

   

Friday 12:54 PM

I am going with the general consensus today. 7-7 is very good in crib but me thinks J-5 a tad better to perhaps picking up that six crib. The pegging was to utilize the eleven count. Now after the cut lets see what they lead and see if at best they have something like eight or nine points and play off the best we can . Hands I would worry about 6-6-7-8 or 2-3-4-4 . dec

   

Friday 3:39 PM

I think 2-2-7-7 may well be the best to minimize Pone's pegging as the 2 and 7 is unlikely to be paired as we have two of each and a 3-card magic eleven. So I'll throw 5-J which hopefully should ensure we go out provided Pone does not.

   

Friday 3:42 PM

At 111*-106 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Defense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %____Loss %
2-2-5-J____6.50+1.15+5.82=13.47____85.8_____14.2
5-7-7-J____6.83+1.09+5.53=13.44____85.4_____14.6
2-2-7-7____5.74+0.65+6.94=13.33____88.3_____11.7

2-2-5-J is best for expected averages but in this end game position Win %s are the most important and 2-2-7-7 is appreciable best for Win %s so I'll select 5-J to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Friday 8:22 PM

Am thinking defense from the outset. Placement of the pegs, end-game scenario, and starter card all echo that same message. Minimizing non-dealer pegs is the best thing that can come out of this hand. Chances that n/d can win by scoring 15 is 1 of 8. Will play off the lead although would pair a deuce or 7 if led. Holding cards of two ranks only with some space between them, that 2-2-7 "eleven from heaven", a "sweet-16 (2-7-7) which allows dealer to close count at 31-2 on any cards that total 15. And the 5-J has the the highest average of any possible discard from these six. Winning percentage is close to 90%; so be it!