April 17, 2021
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Total votes: 208 |
mfetchct425 | Had this hand in grass roots play the other night. A 5 was cut. I usually like flushes like this, but decided to keep the run and strong pegging cards intact (3-4-5-7). Also liked 9-10 to crib more than 4-10. But is that enough to break up the flush? |
james500 3916 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Saturday 3:16 AM
Interesting puzzle, not really sure what to choose.
A five point hand either way, but I prefer the discard of 10-9 to 7-9, so I'll rule out 345T. (7-9 helped by 6666,777,8888,999 = 14 cards, 9-T helped by 555,6666,8888,999,TTT,JJJJ = 21 cards). 10-4 with 3,5 and 9 out of circulation may be weaker than usual, but flushes are often good to keep. 5 reply to a led X from the 5-7-4 sixteen. mfetchCT425 says: Thanks James! Nice analysis. |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Saturday 3:16 AM
It pays to Flush and I am betting that it does in this case. Start with 6 points rather than 5 points (3457). |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Saturday 3:18 AM
I would go for the flush. Keeping 6 pts as opposed to 5, and 4-10 works pretty well in the crib, too. Pegging is almost as good as your keep, I think.
The 5 cut admittedly gives your hand 12 pts, and mine 10. It's a close choice. JCM says: And the J cut gives your keep 7 pts, and mine 8 pts. Confirming that this is a close choice. |
dec 6352 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Saturday 3:20 AM
I would have liked to see a two pointer in the crib. I also like to make things happen on the pegging agenda. Now after the cut offense on the pegging. dec mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Dan. Agree. |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Saturday 3:27 AM
Question about yesterday's conundrum. What if we were pone instead of dealer?
The 6 cards were 2-2-7-7-5-J. The score was 111*-106. The consensus was to keep 2-2-7-7, putting 5-J in the crib. (That was my choice, too.) But what if the score was 111-106*? What should we keep and what should we discard now? scottcrib says: I would toss 2-2, keeping max points and trying to go out.
Interesting enough, the same cuts help 2-2-5-J or 7-7-5-J (A,3,6,8), but the possibility of a double run with the 5-6-7-7 tells me to toss 2-2. |
RubyTuesday 908 votes Joined: January 2019 |
    Saturday 3:31 AM
I chose not to go with the flush but to put 9 10 in my crib rather than 4 10. |
mrob2199 1429 votes Joined: February 2009 |
    Saturday 3:42 AM
I like the 3457 for pegging potential and the discard of the 9-10 should produce more than 4-10-I would play the 7 on a picture lead and try to trap a 5 on the back end glmccuskey says: I agree with Rob here mike. I’ll peg it as aggressively as I can. mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Rob and Gary. I think this hold has too much upside that outweighs the flush. |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Saturday 5:06 AM
Would always throw the 9-10 with this combo. Better for pegging and better for the crib. |
Gougie00 5723 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Saturday 6:00 AM
Yoda (Al Miller) warns us to not fall in love with the flush. I like the 9-10 touchies in this situation. I can account for 3 in the crib, and the opponent probably helped. 2+7+3+1 brings me to hole 106. Gotta peg a little so all I need is a normal hand to go out next deal.
All the snow melted but there are some pond-sized puddles out there here in northern Massachusetts. |
Eolus619 1335 votes Joined: June 2020 |
    Saturday 6:30 AM
I have landed in Rosemarie’s camp this morning. But I see some very strong players have decided to keep the run intact. Plus a warning from Yoda makes me even more uncomfortable. The flush , starts with six , and gets help from 12/13 ranks. As to board position ...93*-86, 109-96*,119*-112
I understand “26” is about averages ..so as Colvert says 1 in 10 chance the cycle works exactly. Just be aware this 7/10 chance to win is not guaranteed. Ras often counsels about total value..hand+crib+pegging..and dec , a fine pegger, mentions the pegging value of keeping the run intact. Incidentally crib value of 10/4 is 3.6 and 9/10 is 4.3. The answer to this puzzle will go into my notebook since I am on a constant mission to not self destruct at the end. |
usacoder 968 votes Joined: August 2019 |
    Saturday 6:58 AM
Interesting hand, the Jack turn card helps a lot.
Here's the output from my Monte Carlo program. The average scoring is close between 3457 (15.96) and 3579 (16.00). Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs if you discard these: NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs the average score is 15.96 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs if you discard these: SEVEN of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs the average score is 12.58 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs the average score is 15.26 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs the average score is 12.31 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs SEVEN of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs the average score is 10.72 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs the average score is 11.78 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs if you discard these: FOUR of SPADEs TEN of DIAMONDs the average score is 16.00 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: FOUR of SPADEs NINE of CLUBs the average score is 13.52 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FIVE of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: FOUR of SPADEs SEVEN of CLUBs the average score is 11.55 Cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs the average score is 11.34 Cards to keep: FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs if you discard these: THREE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs the average score is 10.01 Cards to keep: FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: THREE of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs the average score is 11.43 Cards to keep: FOUR of SPADEs FIVE of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: THREE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs the average score is 11.83 Cards to keep: FOUR of SPADEs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: THREE of CLUBs FIVE of CLUBs the average score is 11.15 Cards to keep: FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs TEN of DIAMONDs if you discard these: THREE of CLUBs FOUR of SPADEs the average score is 12.90 Best cards to keep: THREE of CLUBs FIVE of CLUBs SEVEN of CLUBs NINE of CLUBs and give to crib : FOUR of SPADEs and TEN of DIAMONDs |
Jazzselke 2583 votes Joined: March 2009 |
    Saturday 7:36 AM
Good puzzle Mike. I prefer the possible double run,and great pegging cards including a Magic 11. Not usually inclined to give up a point, but in this case I believe the above factors outweigh the flush. Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: You've said it very well in a couple of sentences. Thanks for sharing in such concise terms. It took me a half page. mfetchCT425 says: Thanks Dan! Like your logic on this as well. |
wasa 3012 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Saturday 9:22 AM
I normally really like flushes, but I also want my 5s to be working for me. Keeping the flush means my 5 is only worth 1 point. Keeping the run and my 5 is worth 3 points. Touching cards to crib is always a good choice. wasa says: realized I was wrong about the 5 being only 1 point in the flush (it is 3 points). Now wondering if I should have kept the 6pt flush vs my 5 points in the run. |
SallyAnn3 903 votes Joined: March 2020 |
    Saturday 9:23 AM
UGG.. I realllllllllllllllly need to start playing live, as I thought this was their crib and tossed the 4-10 to flush. My crib, 9-10 hands down. mfetchCT425 says: lol. Life play soon Sally!, SallyAnn3 says: Club Tuesday---WI tourney in a month! Can't wait :) |
dgergens 938 votes Joined: January 2018 |
    Saturday 9:41 AM
Have played enough to feel the flush is the better choice here despite the lousy cards in the crib. Look forward to the numbers to see how my gut compares to reality. dgergens says: I started paying closer attention to how well flushes do after learning the 'it pays to flush' slogan on this forum. And it does. |
Ras2829 5146 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Saturday 10:12 AM
Looking at the pegs, looking at the cards, short two holes of 4th Street CPZ (95-99), there's nothing to defend here. Then looking at the starter card, scoring two for that Jack, knowing that it helps the crib a bit and adds a couple of points to the hand there's nothing to defend. Will take any pegs offered and move on down the board. RAS generally holds the flush when points are equal; so you know starting with six was very tempting. Even so, 3-4-5-7 includes that 4-7 magic 11 and a sweet 16 (4-5-7) and pegs on average very near four points and the 9-10 to own crib has a huge edge over the 4-10.So the pegging edge and larger potential crib score more than outweigh the extra point offered if holding the flush. Ras2829 says: Very fine puzzle mfetchct425! Eolus619 says: of course ..now you & jazz are in cahoots...the flush is the best answer until it isn't!!!!!
however, thx for the detailed explanation as to why.. I have learned something today mfetchCT425 says: Thx Ras as always! |
travelingman2019 513 votes Joined: December 2018 |
    Saturday 11:04 AM
Yes it is Mike........touching cards in your crib could make a huge difference in what you need on first count to go out.....plus if you hit the run on the cut, it could be as much as 14 and any 6 or eight count in the crib gives you only 4 or 5 to go out on first count with the next deal........121 is the goal, the best way to get there is what you want IMO........ mfetchCT425 says: Like you’re thinking on this. Thx |
Coeurdelion 5589 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Saturday 4:16 PM
I think its between the flush for 6pts with 4-10 and 3-4-5-7 for 5pts with the 9-10. It may be worth looking at 3-4-5-10 (7-9) but I don't think this can be as good:
3-5-7-9: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.59) = 9½pts 3-4-5-7: 5pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 9¼pts 3-4-5-10: 5pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.04) = 9¼pts Potential: 3-5-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/10/11/12pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt. 3-4-5-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 9/12/14pts with 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 20 cuts. 3-4-5-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 2222, 333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 20 cuts. Position: We're 3pts short of 4th street positional hole but Pone is only on par to reach there for next deal so I think we must play Defense. Pegging: Pegging Defense I think the flush will be best. Summary: The flush is best for starting value by ¼pt and although it has slightly fewer cuts for improvement and not the best maximum it has 20 cuts for 9-12pts. Also it has an extra 0.20pt. for a club cut and it should peg best as well. So I'll throw the 4-10. |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Saturday 4:24 PM
At 93*-86 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W2 %____W3 % 3-4-5-7____8.37+3.87+4.14=16.38____32.7____60.9 3-5-7-9____9.13+3.74+3.42=16.29____29.9____61.0 3-4-5-10___8.02+3.48+4.08=15.58____27.5____58.0 Offense_______L2 %____L3 % 3-4-5-7________10.4____32.1 3-5-7-9_________9.6____32.4 3-4-5-10________9.6____34.6 3-4-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.09pts and it is best for Win %s. Although it is not the lowest for Loss %s I'll still select 9-10 to discard. After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |
JCM 910 votes Joined: April 2019 |
    Saturday 5:15 PM
I think I may have just caughtened on to a secret, that, if it is valid, has been eluding me for a very long time(many years).
That is, when you do not have many points in your hand, and board position permitting, DON'T put good cards in opp's crib(like 10-J) just to hold on to those 2 or 3 points. Better to sacrifice those pts to put "garbage" (like a K-9) in Opp's crib. Just starting to apply that principle and it seems to be improving my win rate. Thought to share this. |